98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[jkt21787]

keep in mind, the mobile/pensacola afd talks about the trough being a little slower than what is forecast right now, as the new data comes in...this could be important

VERY VERY IMPORTANT point. The models were showing the advance of the trough today as being MUCH slower than in previous runs. Run to run continunity will be key, but this could mean the difference between say Southern FL, or the FL panhandle, or somewhere else for that matter.

Today's developments in the models are very crucial and key to this event, and must be watched closely in the coming days as to how quickly they show the trough moving south/east.

One thing to keep in mind is that we're still in Mid-October, so fronts won't just come screaming through the FL Peninsula.

[DESTRUCTION5]

what you think is going to affect this storms path a few days from now?

I see a Michelle 99 type Scenario....Front pushing system NE no further west than Tampa and missing FL to the SE and E Is not impossible..I do see a Major Cane though...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The timing of that front will be HUGE in terms of future track

[MortisFL]

And the movement of the system prior to the front.

The timing of that front will be HUGE in terms of future track

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

i agree! i think this will drift west slowly for a day or to then as coldfront drops down this will maybe turn this sytem NE back to florida... were in florida i say more towards the southern part of the state. opinions.

This is a possible scenario. The alternative would be a slowing
in motion and a sluggish W. Drift for 4-5 days into central america
if it misses that front and then a trough picking it up and taking it anywhere from the panhandle to S. FL in 7-8 days.
The Sluggish scenario would allow it to intensify into a major
hurricane..and from there...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

And the movement of the system prior to the front.

The timing of that front will be HUGE in terms of future track

Yup.

[CHRISTY]

can somebody post info on this possible front...

[vbhoutex]

can somebody post info on this possible front...

Already talked about in the discussions posted above. It is still several days away.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

can somebody post info on this possible front...

On a previous page in this post an analysis was posted
A nice detailed analysis...

[Ivanhater]

i agree! i think this will drift west slowly for a day or to then as coldfront drops down this will maybe turn this sytem NE back to florida... were in florida i say more towards the southern part of the state. opinions.

This is a possible scenario. The alternative would be a slowing
in motion and a sluggish W. Drift for 4-5 days into central america
if it misses that front and then a trough picking it up and taking it anywhere from the panhandle to S. FL in 7-8 days.

tampa, I like how you put things, you dont jump on its coming for me! you calmly discuss the possible scenarios, you gain a lot of credibility in my book

[CHRISTY]

7 to 8 days!!! thats a long time for this to be over water...

[DESTRUCTION5]

7 to 8 days!!! thats a long time for this to be over water...

Typical for a System like this...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

i agree! i think this will drift west slowly for a day or to then as coldfront drops down this will maybe turn this sytem NE back to florida... were in florida i say more towards the southern part of the state. opinions.

This is a possible scenario. The alternative would be a slowing
in motion and a sluggish W. Drift for 4-5 days into central america
if it misses that front and then a trough picking it up and taking it anywhere from the panhandle to S. FL in 7-8 days.

tampa, I like how you put things, you dont jump on its coming for me! you calmly discuss the possible scenarios, you gain a lot of credibility in my book

thank you...these aren't really my discussions I just compiled stuff
from a bunch of sites...because its a puzzle-
As for credibility- I can't really accept it I just took my analysis
off of other peoples on other sites.. Like using SPARKNOTES
for an AP Literature Test....
To be honest I'm tempted to say panhandle based on current projected
timing...but trust me I am total newbie to the tropics

So yea the credibility goes to those weather fans from which I took the analysis but I paraphrased it to avoid copyright issues

[CHRISTY]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

7 to 8 days!!! thats a long time for this to be over water...

And a lot of time to intensify

[fasterdisaster]

It looks quite organized.

[CHRISTY]

i think this hurricane season will finish with a bang......

[senorpepr]

Dr Jeff Masters Discussion of Jamaica Disturbance

A broad 1006 mb low pressure area is centered just south of Jamaica this morning, and is a definite threat to develop into a tropical depression over the next few days. Some impressive thunderstorms have developed to the south of Jamaica this morning, and the general organization of this system has improved since yesterday. This is largely due to the fact that wind shear overhead has dropped from 15 knots yesterday to 10 knots today. No upper level outflow or low-level spiral banding is apparent on satellite imagery yet.

Global computer models forecast that the shear will continue to decrease over the area Saturday and Sunday, and I think it is 70% likely by Monday that a tropical depression will form. Steering currents are very weak, and the disturbance is expected to stay in the central or western Caribbean for at least the next five days. This is a set-up typical of what we've seen in the past for the formation of late-October hurricanes. It would be no surprise if this system ended up becoming a hurricane five to seven days from now. Water temperatures are still very high--up to 32 C near Jamaica--so the ocean can even support a major hurricane, although this is rare in late October.

The eventual track of any tropical storm or hurricane that forms is impossible to forecast with any reliability, since steering currents are very weak and a some erratic motion is likely. The various computer models either keep the storm in the Caribbean the next seven days, or move it northeast across Cuba and the Bahamas, or move it west or southwest across Central America or Mexico's Yucatan. In other words, anything can happen.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Just for the heck of it:


"Yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyabba-dabba-doooooooo!"

Flintstones... Meet the Flintstones,
They're a modern stoneage family.
From the town of Bedrock,
They're a page right out of history.


Let's ride with the family down the street.
Through the courtesy of Fred's two feet.


When you're with the Flintstones,
have a yabba dabba doo time,
a dabba doo time,
we'll have a gay old time

[LAwxrgal]

Just for the heck of it:


"Yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyabba-dabba-doooooooo!"

Flintstones... Meet the Flintstones,
They're a modern stoneage family.
From the town of Bedrock,
They're a page right out of history.


Let's ride with the family down the street.
Through the courtesy of Fred's two feet.


When you're with the Flintstones,
have a yabba dabba doo time,
a dabba doo time,
we'll have a gay old time

Dang why did you put that song in my head?