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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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#121 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:30 pm

This is going to be a really crazy week.... :eek:
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#122 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:30 pm

anyone else thinking the center is consolidating further south and west? the nhc said in the discussion it hasnt formed a core yet so it could form anywhere....i think its forming further south and west.... just my opinion though
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#123 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:30 pm

Brent wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:uh no.. not mitch this is suppose to move north.


Mitch was supposed to move north...


Good point.
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#124 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:31 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:This is going to be a really crazy week.... :eek:


Maybe mid to late week. The first few days everyone should relax or you'll be dead by the time it gets here. :lol:
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#125 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:31 pm

to me its so much intensity but that it continues to bring it north....
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#126 Postby no advance » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:35 pm

Brent this in not Mitch.
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#127 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:36 pm

Brent wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:This is going to be a really crazy week.... :eek:


Maybe mid to late week. The first few days everyone should relax or you'll be dead by the time it gets here. :lol:

My sanity died last year with the big 4 Canes... :wink:
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#128 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:36 pm

no advance wrote:Brent this in not Mitch.


I didn't say it was... I was just pointing out that Mitch was originally going to go north.

This does have similarites, but I doubt it goes into Central America like Mitch did.
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#129 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:40 pm

There is a strong upper level high shown by Cimss shear charts. It is helping the outflow come out of all quads. But as with Irene(That depession)When its upper ridge moved to the southeast...It sheared its storm to death. I see clouds moving from southwest to northeast on satellite loops. That could mean that the ridge is moving away from the system like Irene the depressions high did. We will need to watch that. Can TD 24 hold its ridge in place.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
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#130 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:41 pm

Irene was never sheared to death
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#131 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:42 pm

well any opinions on the center consolidating further southwest?
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#132 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:43 pm

ivanhater wrote:well any opinions on the center consolidating further southwest?


it's hard for me to tell...maybe...
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#133 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:43 pm

It might have a tight core yet, but it looks like it is organizing on satellite on that website.
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#134 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:44 pm

Its convection got displaced on its northeast side intill it got into the Western Atlantic. Yes the SAL was bad for it. But what caused it if it was not shear?
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#135 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:44 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Irene was never sheared to death


I think he's referring to 2005's Irene.
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#136 Postby Scorpion » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:45 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Its convection got displaced on its northeast side intill it got into the Western Atlantic. Yes the SAL was bad for it. But what caused it if it was not shear?


The Eastern Atlantic has been a grave for many waves this year. This area is far more favorable.
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#137 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:47 pm

Scorpion wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Its convection got displaced on its northeast side intill it got into the Western Atlantic. Yes the SAL was bad for it. But what caused it if it was not shear?


The Eastern Atlantic has been a grave for many waves this year. This area is far more favorable.


Exactly. The Western Caribbean is NOT the Central and Eastern Atlantic.

The area has been undisturbed for 3 months...
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#138 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:48 pm

Brent wrote:
Scorpion wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Its convection got displaced on its northeast side intill it got into the Western Atlantic. Yes the SAL was bad for it. But what caused it if it was not shear?


The Eastern Atlantic has been a grave for many waves this year. This area is far more favorable.


Exactly. The Western Caribbean is NOT the Central and Eastern Atlantic.

The area has been undisturbed for 3 months...


well matt will be calling for a major hurricane tomorrow and then say its weak and will not amount to anything.....happens every time :wink:
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#139 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:07 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR (AL242005) ON 20051016 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051016 0000 051016 1200 051017 0000 051017 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 78.9W 17.5N 79.4W 17.4N 79.6W 17.0N 80.0W
BAMM 17.3N 78.9W 17.7N 79.7W 17.7N 80.2W 17.3N 80.6W
A98E 17.3N 78.9W 17.0N 79.2W 17.1N 79.9W 17.0N 80.6W
LBAR 17.3N 78.9W 17.8N 79.5W 18.5N 79.8W 19.4N 80.0W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051018 0000 051019 0000 051020 0000 051021 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.6N 80.6W 16.1N 82.2W 16.6N 83.5W 18.2N 83.7W
BAMM 16.8N 81.4W 15.7N 83.0W 15.6N 83.8W 17.2N 83.7W
A98E 16.8N 81.4W 16.7N 83.3W 16.6N 85.4W 16.4N 87.3W
LBAR 20.7N 80.0W 24.0N 78.6W 28.3N 73.8W 32.7N 66.1W
SHIP 53KTS 68KTS 77KTS 78KTS
DSHP 53KTS 68KTS 77KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 78.9W DIRCUR = 225DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 78.4W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 76.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Ivanhater you are right as the center is more south.
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#140 Postby artist » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:13 pm

wow - bam only takes it up to 78 kts - like the sound of that better than the others!
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