Invest 91L Recon Thread

[Brent]

i swore i'd eat my shoe if 91L developed lol.



I know Brent knows that, guess i'm getting my crow...

You sure did say that.

I hate this storm BTW.

[mtm4319]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You would think that the northly winds would be the strongest. Normally is.

[tallywx]

must be closed earth relative, not storm relative

That's interesting. What is the fundamental reason behind that requirement? Another way to think about this is to spin a plastic cylinder on a piece of paper. Move that cylinder "northward" at a speed greater than the rate at which you are spinning the cylinder. Plot the left-hand side of the cylinder on graph paper below over time and you obviously won't see any southerly directionality to the progression of points; yet, you can't argue that the cylinder is not still a "closed" entity, notwithstanding the lack of storm relative detection of the closed properties.

All the cylinder would have to then do is slow down within the surroundings and voila, it's suddenly "closed" by the tropical cyclone classification requirement. If we're trying to accurately define the "cylinder," so to speak, why are we relying on the surroundings to impart such a definition?

[curtadams]

RECCO Observation
Flight level wind: SE (140°) @ 43 mph
Surface Wind: SE (140°) @ 23 mph

23/43 = 53% reduction. Maybe not a TS even with a LLC.

[Swimdude]

^ According to the map above... If they haven't found a LLC by now, I'm not sure they will.

[Derek Ortt]

they need to fly to the west to see if there is any northerly winds there

if there are any, they would be south of Cape Fear

[Aquawind]

^ According to the map above... If they haven't found a LLC by now, I'm not sure they will.

It could be real small and they missed it.. still a chance..they will be coming back around I am sure.

[curtadams]

must be closed earth relative, not storm relative

That's interesting. What is the fundamental reason behind that requirement? Another way to think about this is to spin a plastic cylinder on a piece of paper. Move that cylinder "northward" at a speed greater than the rate at which you are spinning the cylinder. Plot the left-hand side of the cylinder on graph paper below over time and you obviously won't see any southerly directionality to the progression of points; yet, you can't argue that the cylinder is not still a "closed" entity, notwithstanding the lack of storm relative detection of the closed properties.

All the cylinder would have to then do is slow down within the surroundings and voila, it's suddenly closed.

Probably because an aircraft can't measure storm relative. In complicated developing-TD situations it can be hard even to define, what with winds going every which way. They can bend the rules if required for public safety.

[HurricaneHunter914]

So does this mean that the NHC will keep this as an Invest?

[CHRISTY]

Some Recon Observations...


http://www.hurricanealley.net/

[mtm4319]

211
SXXX50 KNHC 271723
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 23 KNHC
1713. 3430N 07602W 00731 0073 152 037 196 190 042 00803 0000000000
1714 3429N 07603W 00526 0064 152 040 208 208 041 00589 0000000000
1714. 3428N 07604W 00332 0047 144 033 218 218 034 00381 0000000000
1715 3427N 07606W 00307 0038 144 033 220 220 035 00347 0000000000
1715. 3427N 07607W 00303 0038 139 031 220 220 032 00343 0000000000
1716 3426N 07609W 00267 0037 139 032 224 222 032 00306 0000000000
1716. 3425N 07611W 00273 0035 141 033 226 222 034 00310 0000000000
1717 3424N 07612W 00272 0035 142 034 226 224 034 00309 0000000000
1717. 3424N 07614W 00272 0034 142 035 226 226 037 00308 0000000000
1718 3423N 07616W 00272 0033 142 034 226 226 035 00307 0000000000
1718. 3422N 07617W 00272 0032 144 035 228 226 036 00306 0000000000
1719 3421N 07619W 00272 0030 143 036 228 226 037 00304 0000000000
1719. 3420N 07620W 00273 0030 142 038 226 226 040 00306 0000000000
1720 3420N 07622W 00274 0031 139 041 220 220 045 00307 0000000000
1720. 3420N 07624W 00269 0028 137 034 228 228 034 00299 0000000000
1721 3419N 07625W 00273 0030 142 032 228 228 033 00305 0000000000
1721. 3418N 07627W 00274 0030 152 033 224 224 035 00307 0000000000
1722 3417N 07628W 00267 0030 169 040 202 202 044 00299 0000000000
1722. 3416N 07629W 00276 0028 166 044 186 186 045 00306 0000000000
1723 3415N 07631W 00267 0026 166 044 182 182 045 00295 0000000000

Coming back toward the southwest, and looking for the northerly winds I'm sure.

[mtm4319]

[CrazyC83]

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none seems to show a low-level circulation...

[AnnularCane]

i swore i'd eat my shoe if 91L developed lol.



I know Brent knows that, guess i'm getting my crow...

Would you like some ketchup on your shoe?

Just in case.

[tallywx]

must be closed earth relative, not storm relative

That's interesting. What is the fundamental reason behind that requirement? Another way to think about this is to spin a plastic cylinder on a piece of paper. Move that cylinder "northward" at a speed greater than the rate at which you are spinning the cylinder. Plot the left-hand side of the cylinder on graph paper below over time and you obviously won't see any southerly directionality to the progression of points; yet, you can't argue that the cylinder is not still a "closed" entity, notwithstanding the lack of storm relative detection of the closed properties.

All the cylinder would have to then do is slow down within the surroundings and voila, it's suddenly closed.

Probably because an aircraft can't measure storm relative. In complicated developing-TD situations it can be hard even to define, what with winds going every which way. They can bend the rules if required for public safety.

That's true. It's interesting to note that the Storm Relative Velocity view on the Morehead City, NC doppler radar depicts a northerly component to the wind direction around this system, whereas the base (non storm-relative) radial velocity shows no such northerly component. The recon. plane may depict the latter and not the former.

[Aquawind]

They are going west of the first run for the possible North wind..

[mtm4319]

396
SXXX50 KNHC 271733
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 24 KNHC
1723. 3414N 07632W 00276 0026 160 041 202 202 043 00304 0000000000
1724 3413N 07633W 00271 0025 159 042 212 212 042 00298 0000000000
1724. 3413N 07635W 00272 0023 157 039 214 214 040 00297 0000000000
1725 3412N 07636W 00271 0022 154 039 214 214 039 00296 0000000000
1725. 3411N 07638W 00273 0020 150 038 212 212 039 00295 0000000000
1726 3410N 07639W 00272 0020 148 037 212 212 037 00294 0000000000
1726. 3409N 07640W 00272 0019 147 037 216 216 037 00294 0000000000
1727 3408N 07642W 00272 0018 146 037 218 218 037 00292 0000000000
1727. 3407N 07643W 00271 0017 143 039 216 216 041 00291 0000000000
1728 3406N 07644W 00270 0018 154 032 214 214 038 00291 0000000000
1728. 3405N 07645W 00274 0014 151 034 210 210 035 00290 0000000000
1729 3404N 07647W 00269 0018 149 038 204 204 039 00290 0000000000
1729. 3403N 07648W 00273 0016 149 038 192 192 039 00291 0000000000
1730 3402N 07650W 00274 0013 145 041 194 194 043 00289 0000000000
1730. 3402N 07651W 00272 0009 151 044 210 210 046 00283 0000000000
1731 3401N 07652W 00272 0004 154 046 202 202 049 00279 0000000000
1731. 3400N 07654W 00272 5007 154 045 210 210 049 00267 0000000000
1732 3359N 07655W 00270 5014 156 025 230 230 032 00259 0000000000
1732. 3358N 07657W 00268 5010 227 008 228 228 010 00260 0000000000
1733 3358N 07658W 00274 5003 252 013 222 222 015 00273 0000000000

The 252 is interesting... WSW.

[mtm4319]

[CHRISTY]

just updated....




http://www.hurricanealley.net/