NW Carribean

#121 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:13 pm

calamity wrote:I'm going to have to give this a less than 0% chance of actually developing... and that's just being optimistic; besides, this isn't even an invest, is it?

Calamity I wasn't necessarily looking at the current ball of convection in the western caribbean. I was looking at the overall pattern unfolding in the Southeastern/Central GOM and possibly a surface trough developing as the trough pulls the upper level feature with it.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #122 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:15 pm

The NHC is doing a great job. I believe what they say. Conditions are not
favorable for development--- Now I am not an expert and so I am not sure what
conditions those are (The shear? The area of convection's proximity to land?)
but I'm sure that the NHC has strong reasons to state that development is
not expected.
I'm the student. They are the teachers/instructors.

Stratosphere747 · #123 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:19 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb-atl.shtml

Info galore...

For those that need a little glimmer of hope, read the TWD's, and not the TWO's....

#124 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:24 pm

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE GULF W OF 86W WITH THE UPPER
HIGH INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS TO NE MEXICO GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO
LEON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WEST
OF 90W. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-93W.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED LOWS IS ALONG THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF
2100 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N81W ACROSS TAMPA BAY
TO 24N85W. HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA WSW TO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE N GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT
AND BECOME STATIONARY ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 81W-87W. WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE S CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING E PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...WHERE THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UNDER AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW...CLOUD LINES WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. MODERATE
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BLOW ACROSS MOST THE BASIN.

#125 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:33 pm

[quote="SouthFloridawx"]
Calamity I wasn't necessarily looking at the current ball of convection in the western caribbean. I was looking at the overall pattern unfolding in the Southeastern/Central GOM and possibly a surface trough developing as the trough pulls the upper level feature with it.

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/1442/170ul.jpg

I agree with your thinking about potential development with the developing pattern across the NW Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf. But conditions won't really become very favorable there for another 4-5 days, perhaps toward the middle to end of next week. We'll have remains of that front, perhaps a weak upper trof/low out there, maybe a wave axis will pass to the south, and there's also a possible MJO event beginning around the same time. Long range models show nothing, though. We shall see.

rockyman · #126 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:46 pm

Anyone notice the swirl in the clouds on IR just south of the west tip of Cuba...of course, no way of knowing if this swirl is anywhere near the surface, but it might be interesting come morning.

rockyman · #127 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:52 pm

Just checked all the analysis maps...and conditions sure look pretty favorable in the western Caribbean...all of the elements seem to be coming together.

#128 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:55 pm

rockyman wrote:Just checked all the analysis maps...and conditions sure look pretty favorable in the western Caribbean...all of the elements seem to be coming together.

It would make for an interesting weekend if something were to perk up.

#129 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 11:01 pm

Go here and pic the 8 Image Animation to the left. DON'T LOOK YET! Now, speed up the animation to about half way. NOW, scroll down and look at the NW Carribean.

SSEC Satellite Imagery

bigmoney755 · #130 Postby **bigmoney755** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 11:11 pm

i looked and it seems to be coming together nice.

#131 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 11:14 pm

Yes, it does look nice, but I still don't think it's much. It's a nice blob of convection, and with the good upper air divergence over it, it's giving us a nice "tropical" look. If it wasn't so close to land...like maybe in the central to eastern gulf, I'd be a lot more concerned with it.

bigmoney755 · #132 Postby **bigmoney755** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 11:19 pm

it will be traveling over some very warm waters so anything can happen

#133 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 11:21 pm

#134 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 11:26 pm

skysummit wrote:Yes, it does look nice, but I still don't think it's much. It's a nice blob of convection, and with the good upper air divergence over it, it's giving us a nice "tropical" look. If it wasn't so close to land...like maybe in the central to eastern gulf, I'd be a lot more concerned with it.

Sky, you know I'm not talking about that area of convection that is near to land but, rather farther north towards the nw caribbean and into the se gulf right?

#135 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 11:28 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
skysummit wrote:Yes, it does look nice, but I still don't think it's much. It's a nice blob of convection, and with the good upper air divergence over it, it's giving us a nice "tropical" look. If it wasn't so close to land...like maybe in the central to eastern gulf, I'd be a lot more concerned with it.

Sky, you know I'm not talking about that area of convection that is near to land but, rather farther north towards the nw caribbean and into the se gulf right?

Yes, I do know what you're talking about and I agree with you. I'm just talking about the pretty blob that's giving us a nice tropical look tonight. I do see what you see and I'm thinking by Monday or Tuesday we may have something to look at.

bigmoney755 · #136 Postby **bigmoney755** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 11:30 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Sky, you know I'm not talking about that area of convection that is near to land but, rather farther north towards the nw caribbean and into the se gulf right?

it really doesnt matter since none of it will develop anyway according to NHC. I would say the blob by honduras looks better though.

#137 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 11:31 pm

SFla...that's the area with the most low level convergence right now too.

....also 850mb Vorticity has been on the increase there in the past 12 hours.

#138 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 06, 2006 11:52 pm

skysummit wrote:SFla...that's the area with the most low level convergence right now too.

....also 850mb Vorticity has been on the increase there in the past 12 hours.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

and also upper level divergence is present...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

#139 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 12:18 am

Of course development is not occurring right now. I explained why in my posts earlier today. What you have to look at is down the road. All the players are coming together for development this weekend into next week. Today we had outflow boundaries which is not a good sign for development. However as the vigorous wave moves into the southern gulf this weekend and with a stalled out front in the gulf we will see a clash so to speak, I believe we will see a huge mess to begin with, then a system starting to take shape next week. As I have said, development now will not happen but all the players are starting to come together. IMO, and I do not mind going out on a limb, we will see Beryl in the gulf next week.

#140 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jul 07, 2006 12:21 am

Ivanhater wrote:Of course development is not occurring right now. I explained why in my posts earlier today. What you have to look at is down the road. All the players are coming together for development this weekend into next week. Today we had outflow boundaries which is not a good sign for development. However as the vigorous wave moves into the southern gulf this weekend and with a stalled out front in the gulf we will see a clash so to speak, I believe we will see a huge mess to begin with, then a system starting to take shape next week. As I have said, development now will not happen but all the players are starting to come together. IMO, and I do not mind going out on a limb, we will see Beryl in the gulf next week.

I hear what you are saying but it sure does look impressive right considering there is nothing there at the moment.

NW Carribean

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