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HurricaneHunter914
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#121 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:54 am

Jeff Masters thinks this has the possibility to become a TD today!
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#122 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:55 am

That wave is still chugging along.Amazing 8-) I don't see any reason why it wont eventually become a TD.
Last edited by canegrl04 on Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#123 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:56 am

But Jeff said that this may not survive past Thurday.
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#124 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:57 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Looking at this shear tendacy map this Invest is over some increasing shear.
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#125 Postby Scorpion » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:59 am

Doesn't look the shear is increasing over the system right now.
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#126 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:02 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Looking at this shear tendacy map this Invest is over some increasing shear.


It doesn't look that way to me. If it stays far enough south it would be heading into the SE Carribean where shear is decreasing between 10kts and 20kts. If you go by that map.
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#127 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:09 am

Whoops I was looking at the wrong coordinates. :lol:

Actually this wave has some pretty good outflow if you ask me.
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#128 Postby skysummit » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:12 am

I do believe this is the longest it has held its convection together. It'll likely decrease again later (if not, I'll be thoroughly impressed), and then re-gain more convection tonight and tomorrow morning. If each pulse gets better and better, I so no reason why it won't be able to keep itself together through the Carribean....especially if conditions improve a tad.

Image
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#129 Postby curtadams » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:17 am

This pulse is over. The current burst has taken the fuzzy look of leftover cloudtops.
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#130 Postby Kennethb » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:19 am

Asymetrical shape shows the strong west winds. Too, 96 is about to enter the dead zone for tropical systems.
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#131 Postby drezee » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:23 am

Have a feeling that....barbados will find a way to stop putting out Obs during the passage of the low pressure...something always happens...
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#132 Postby rjgator » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:54 am

I have never seen the NHC bounce back in forth so much in the outlooks. Every six hours they change from development not expected to development if any will be slow to occur and the system is look a little better organized or has increasing shower activity. I wish this would poof or develop.
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#133 Postby drezee » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:36 pm

Barbados 28 mph sustained winds

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA
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#134 Postby gopherfan21 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:38 pm

I just don't see this developing unless it encounters more favorable conditions in the west
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#135 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:38 pm

Almost near TD force winds Jeff Masters might be right about a possible TD today.
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#136 Postby Scorpion » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:39 pm

The key thing is the wind direction.
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#137 Postby drezee » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:39 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Almost near TD force winds Jeff Masters might be right about a possible TD today.


TD Force is 20mph or above
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#138 Postby gopherfan21 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:41 pm

Yes, just because something has 30 mph winds doesn't mean it is a tropical depression, it needs to have circulation.

And actually, the correct defintion of a TD is winds below 39 MPH with a cyclonic surface circulation.
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#139 Postby drezee » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:41 pm

gopherfan21 wrote:Yes, just because something has 30 mph winds doesn't mean it is a tropical depression, it needs to have circulation.

And actually, the correct defintion of a TD is winds below 39 MPH with a cyclonic surface circulation.


The NHC does not classify less than 20
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#140 Postby gopherfan21 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:43 pm

You haven't read many post-landfall HPC Advisories, have you?

There, it is still classified as a tropical depression until it has extratropical characteristics.
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