Tropical Depression Emilia (06E) in EPAC=Last Advisory

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow at 26.4 north. It would only need to be 5 to 7 degrees warmer to make it to SD.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

27.1 north in has developed some convection over the center. Even so its being blown a little bit to the west.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the satellite shows something else that the stratocu is not there along the coast of Baja up to SD. To 115 or so west. This might be a sign of what that paper said!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2006

EMILIA REMAINS AS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND SURFACE WINDS FROM A 1430Z SSM/I
OVERPASS. SINCE EMILIA IS OVER 21C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HR OR LESS AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
IN LESS THAN 36 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11. EMILIA IS BEING STEERED BY A
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 27.3N 119.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 27.7N 120.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 28/1800Z 28.0N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


If this had not turned west this may have hit southern California!

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 280210
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2006

EMILIA IS NOW A NON-CONVECTIVE SWIRL IN THE LOW CLOUDS OFF OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 25 KT BASED UPON A SATELLITE
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9. EMILIA IS BEING STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER COLD WATERS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
EMILIA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2 AND WMO HEADER FZPN03 KNHC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 28.0N 119.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 28/1200Z 28.4N 120.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA


Untill 2012.

[Andrew92]

Emilia, see ya in 2012, don't let that door hit ya!

[AnnularCane]

Bye, Emilia.