Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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Sanibel
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#121 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 17, 2006 1:10 pm

Actually the dvorak has slightly increased on this because of the slight hook shape the convection has taken.
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cycloneye
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#122 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 1:12 pm

17/1745 UTC 31.6N 79.1W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
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miamicanes177
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#123 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:08 pm

This could be nearing tropical depression strength. If fact, it might be one already.
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#124 Postby Stormavoider » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:19 pm

It's getting interesting here.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TYBG1
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#125 Postby hurricanedude » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:26 pm

just upgrade it to a TD and get it over with...lol :ggreen:
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#126 Postby LaBreeze » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:32 pm

I heard two local mets state that this circulation could very well cross Florida and enter the GOM by early next week. What is the possibility of this scenario playing out and what would the possible conditions be like in the GOM early next week?
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#127 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:35 pm

LaBreeze wrote:I heard two local mets state that this circulation could very well cross Florida and enter the GOM by early next week. What is the possibility of this scenario playing out and what would the possible conditions be like in the GOM early next week?


Over on Eastern, a amateur made an excellent forecast on just this possibility. I still dismiss it, but intriguing none the less.
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NONAME
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#128 Postby NONAME » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:37 pm

Why didn't NHC send recon out their it looks even better than yesterday do they just not want to declare it because the forcast for high wind shear.
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#129 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:39 pm

It might just be me, but it looks on the WV loop to be consolidating and moving more south than SW. Comments?
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#130 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:42 pm

Damar91 wrote:It might just be me, but it looks on the WV loop to be consolidating and moving more south than SW. Comments?
this movement is expected by the models. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
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#131 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:43 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:
Damar91 wrote:It might just be me, but it looks on the WV loop to be consolidating and moving more south than SW. Comments?
this movement is expected by the models. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png


Those models show a SW move into Florida. Not due south which this looks like it is presently doing. This may change however.
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miamicanes177
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#132 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:45 pm

storms due wobble at times. I would not give it a second thought.
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Stormavoider
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#133 Postby Stormavoider » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:47 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:I would not give it a second thought.
You are saying that to the wrong bunch!
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LaBreeze
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#134 Postby LaBreeze » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:48 pm

Any chance of it making across Florida?
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#135 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:49 pm

LaBreeze wrote:Any chance of it making across Florida?


Good question.. I wonder that myself.
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#136 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:50 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:storms due wobble at times. I would not give it a second thought.


Our first offical wobble alert! :eek:
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LaBreeze
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#137 Postby LaBreeze » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:51 pm

The first of many I'm afraid
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Damar91
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#138 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:52 pm

:fools:
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LaBreeze
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#139 Postby LaBreeze » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:53 pm

I don't get it - what's funny?
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bob rulz
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#140 Postby bob rulz » Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:54 pm

Meh, he's just trying to mess with people's minds I'll bet...
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