Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[LAwxrgal]

Wow we got the invest... Things are really getting going now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Invest 97L!!!!!

I no see it?

[fwbbreeze]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Invest 97L!!!!!

Here comes the acticvity many have ben hoping for!!

[Air Force Met]

is it just me, or am I seeing a small circulation area on vis shot at 46W 9 or 10 N?

Can I please get a confirmation on this?

It's not a closed LLC. There is vorticity...but it is not closed.

[AJC3]

Who needs floaters when you have the NASA GHCC loops?

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES

I pretty much never look at the SSD loops unless I want to use the overlays. The GHCC images, when zoomed in with 100% quality, are both better image quality and better temporal resolution than just about anything else available on the web.

I totally agree. I think most people just don't know about the GHCC, that's why they look at the SSD. I only look at the SSD when 1) I want to see an overlay and 2) I want to auto-update...so when I go to bed I can open my laptop up in the middle of the night (when a system is out there I am watching) and see the very latest...instead of refreshing.

But...when it comes to trying to truly see what is going on...GHCC is the way to go for the average weather buff who only has public access. It has a lot better zoom capability and updates anywhere b/w 2x more often to 6x more often...depending on the mode they have it in (when you are in the 1KM field).

Why would you not want this?

Or this?

I can always tell when someone is trying to close off a circulation by using the SSD.

Edit: I also use the SSD to get my channel 2 imagery. Too bad GHCC hasn't added that.

Or a better enhancement for WV imagery.

Also, what i use at home is a great companion program that makes it very easy to compose/name your own subsectors within the predefined GHCC sectors. It's called GHCCSAT by Mike Bryson.

http://www.nexrad3.com/GhccSat.html

[cycloneye]

[SouthFloridawx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html
OMIT images 173, 174 and 180.
This should soon be our next invest.

Wow I was actually right for once.

[jhamps10]

is it just me, or am I seeing a small circulation area on vis shot at 46W 9 or 10 N?

Can I please get a confirmation on this?

It's not a closed LLC. There is vorticity...but it is not closed.

I didn't say that it was closed, but thanks for the confirm AFM. I could tell that it was still open, but as I see now we have a new invest on it, so looks like it will be time to stay up till 1 or 2 AM to track this one. Because this one IMO is a bigger threat to the US than TD 4.

[crownweather]

I was a little surprised by the text of the 205 pm TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD LOW-MID
CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ABOUT THE AXIS. A LOW-MID LEVEL SWIRL IS
STILL EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10.5N. DESPITE ITS
STRUCTURE...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND CONFINED WITHIN
THE ITCZ. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY AS ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE REMAINS BROAD AND THE NRN
EXTENSION OF THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST.

Was surprised that they aren't expecting further development when the 1130 am TWO mentioned slow development.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

[miamicanes177]

large area of 30kt shear just to the north of 97L. Hopefully this thing will get the life sheared out of it.

[Air Force Met]

Or a better enhancement for WV imagery.

Also, what i use at home is a great companion program that makes it very easy to compose/name your own subsectors within the predefined GHCC sectors. It's called GHCCSAT by Mike Bryson.

http://www.nexrad3.com/GhccSat.html

Yeah...a better enhancement on the WV would be nice.

Thanks for the program. I always just modify the parameters I have...moving the lat/long around from the bookmark I've made.

[SouthFloridawx]

large area of 30kt shear just to the north of 97L. Hopefully this thing will get the life sheared out of it.

It would appear that the shear is a little far to the north to have any affects on it as of right now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

However in time it could become a factor in development.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060822 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060822 1800 060823 0600 060823 1800 060824 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.0N 47.0W 10.2N 49.5W 10.5N 51.6W 10.6N 53.3W
BAMM 10.0N 47.0W 10.2N 50.1W 10.6N 52.7W 11.1N 55.0W
A98E 10.0N 47.0W 10.1N 50.4W 10.3N 53.7W 10.8N 56.7W
LBAR 10.0N 47.0W 10.1N 50.1W 10.5N 53.1W 11.0N 56.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060824 1800 060825 1800 060826 1800 060827 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 54.8W 11.5N 57.5W 11.8N 60.7W 11.6N 65.4W
BAMM 11.9N 57.0W 13.8N 59.9W 15.8N 63.0W 17.5N 66.1W
A98E 11.3N 59.3W 12.6N 63.7W 14.0N 67.6W 16.1N 71.5W
LBAR 11.4N 59.1W 12.4N 64.3W 15.8N 69.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 39KTS 47KTS 49KTS 51KTS
DSHP 39KTS 47KTS 49KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 47.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 43.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 40.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


First model plots for 97L.

[LAwxrgal]

hmm....Ships develops this system slowly but surely.... 51kts in 5 days.... would this be Ernesto if it develops?

[jhamps10]

yeah, because I think that we will have debby at 5 PM based on looking at sat. data

[MWatkins]

I was a little surprised by the text of the 205 pm TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD LOW-MID
CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ABOUT THE AXIS. A LOW-MID LEVEL SWIRL IS
STILL EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10.5N. DESPITE ITS
STRUCTURE...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND CONFINED WITHIN
THE ITCZ. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY AS ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE REMAINS BROAD AND THE NRN
EXTENSION OF THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST.

Was surprised that they aren't expecting further development when the 1130 am TWO mentioned slow development.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

I believe that is the opinion of that paticular TAFB forecaster...who also BTW has done some work (I think) with Saharan Dust.

However...all indications are the NHC is thinking there could be some development...although deep convection is limited the structure of this system has improved since yesterday. The dry air to the north may be an inhibiting factor...but not one that would completely shut down development.

Hence, the invest...

MW

[Stratosphere747]

Never really thought of this...

But are the forecasters that write the TWDs based in Miami?

[Derek Ortt]

John has not done much work with Saharan dust

His research centered on topographic impacts of PR and Hispaniola on Hurricane Georges, thats his specialty, though he did get a daily spiel from me on dry air interactions

I'm going to see what he's thinking on this one

[jhamps10]

I would think so, cause NHC is in miami

[SouthFloridawx]

I was a little surprised by the text of the 205 pm TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD LOW-MID
CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ABOUT THE AXIS. A LOW-MID LEVEL SWIRL IS
STILL EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10.5N. DESPITE ITS
STRUCTURE...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND CONFINED WITHIN
THE ITCZ. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY AS ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE REMAINS BROAD AND THE NRN
EXTENSION OF THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST.

Was surprised that they aren't expecting further development when the 1130 am TWO mentioned slow development.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

I believe that is the opinion of that paticular TAFB forecaster...who also BTW has done some work (I think) with Saharan Dust.
However...all indications are the NHC is thinking there could be some development...although deep convection is limited the structure of this system has improved since yesterday. The dry air to the north may be an inhibiting factor...but not one that would completely shut down development.
Hence, the invest...
MW

Mike looking the Visible pictures as of yesterday there was a lot of Dust surrounding this area.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... col-3.html

today there is less dust as it has moved fairly quickly to the west.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rucol.html