Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

[Beam]

Just read the the blog that Derek put out. And it said early indications are that it well pass well west of Pensacola. But, a lot can change between now and then. Gulf Coast will have to monitor this possible developing system.

FYI that was HIS blog he was pointing out.

[jasons2k]

Just read the the blog that Derek put out. And it said early indications are that it well pass well west of Pensacola. But, a lot can change between now and then. Gulf Coast will have to monitor this possible developing system.

FYI that was HIS blog he was pointing out.

She knows that

[SouthAlabamaWX]

how come toe AFDs only seem to cite the GFS?

Most NWS offices mostly use only the GFS.

[Beam]

Just read the the blog that Derek put out. And it said early indications are that it well pass well west of Pensacola. But, a lot can change between now and then. Gulf Coast will have to monitor this possible developing system.

FYI that was HIS blog he was pointing out.

She knows that

My bad, I read that as "pointed out" and not "put out". Perhaps I should lay off the swill.

[Evil Jeremy]

i have a feeling tha tthis will be the SFL storm of the year.

[gatorcane]

i have a feeling tha tthis will be the SFL storm of the year.

Why do you say this?

[miamicanes177]

There's still plenty of heat content on the Gulf to maintain a strong system.

The gulf is no doubt warm enough to support a very intense hurricane. The only factors will be shear and dry air and we will not know about those things for a few days.

[jasons2k]

i have a feeling tha tthis will be the SFL storm of the year.

I don't see anything at all that would indicate that.

[Beam]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/probability_loop.html

How strange, this genesis potential graphic indicates the probability of development steadily decreasing over the past 48 hours, when the real-life situation is quite the opposite.

[webke]

Does anyone know what has happened to the GFDL model it hasn't run a solution on 97L since 06Z.

[skysummit]

i have a feeling tha tthis will be the SFL storm of the year.

I don't see anything at all that would indicate that.

Same here...it must be one of those "location" type of feelings.

[colbroe]

Our invest now has a storm id on the naval site , so at any time should be clled a depression

[Evil Jeremy]

i have a feeling tha tthis will be the SFL storm of the year.

Why do you say this?

If I remember corectly, for the past 2 years, a hurricane has hit SE florida withen one week from today. Francess and Katrina (weak). this system is close distance and time-wise to those these events, and smoe models point it in our general direction.

[LAwxrgal]

Our invest now has a storm id on the naval site , so at any time should be clled a depression

Link?

[gatorcane]

i have a feeling tha tthis will be the SFL storm of the year.

Why do you say this?

If I remember corectly, for the past 2 years, a hurricane has hit SE florida withen one week from today. Francess and Katrina (weak). this system is close distance and time-wise to those these events, and smoe models point it in our general direction.

Link on the models? You can't base your forecast on just the past 2 years - I think its on your inhibitions which is okay. If that is the feeling you have then lets just hope it doesn't happen

[Beam]

Our invest now has a storm id on the naval site , so at any time should be clled a depression

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/97L.INVEST/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html
Still says 97L.INVEST for me. I believe it would be 97L.NONAME or 05L.NONAME if something had changed.

[skysummit]

Our invest now has a storm id on the naval site , so at any time should be clled a depression

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/97L.INVEST/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html
Still says 97L.INVEST for me. I believe it would be 97L.NONAME or 05L.NONAME if something had changed.

Yes...that's correct. There's no "storm ID" on NRL.

[wxman57]

As far as I can see, all dynamic guidance points toward something in the NW Caribbean by Monday evening. Beyond that point, the EC has a ridge over Alabama to Florida, pointing to a NW track into northern Mexico or Texas, perhaps as far east as SW Louisiana. The GFS and Canadian indicate a stronger ridge north of the system and a track into Mexico or south Texas. Nothing that I can see would indicate a trof that would turn it northward toward Florida. The trof is well east of Florida betwen 60-70W. So if the system misses that trof (likely), then nothing to steer it northward until the western Gulf.

[Trugunzn]

so where is the center?

[gopherfan21]

Storm ID = al972006 Every invest #, depression/storm/cane# is a storm id.

Please get your facts straight.


Also...

i have a feeling tha tthis will be the SFL storm of the year.

There is nothing that suggests this except a few models which, as usual, are recurving this system way too early into Hispanola towards S FL. This is wrong, as it assumes the models have a developed system and furthermore at these time distances, these models have a poor track record of recurving systems early (and in this case, it would be recurving a storm directly into the Bermuda High--wrong). This is more of a W Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico threat if it develops. Don't let your location blind you to what's actually happening in the tropics.