Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[gatorcane]

I smell a big bust coming on 97L - just my feeling.

I smell another Chris but at least he got a name and was classified, 97L hasn't even gotten that. I don't think anyone should write this off just yet.

Definitely not writing it off but looking at it now I agree with WxMan that the chances of development are now like 50-60%

[Sanibel]

That flat border on its east side is bad for formation. It means the synoptic to its east is infringing on it and hindering it.

However, remember what this storm was only a day ago or so. It wasn't much. In relation to this it is organizing and shows a spinning surface feature. Whether it will fall to 2006 conditions or not is yet to be seen. Myself, I'd be watching this one. It is probably just fighting a new weather border it has encountered and will rebound. I already see signs of rebounding in the convection.

[miamicanes177]

From Dr. Jeff Masters' blog: "If 97L can survive the next two days and separate from the South American coast--which it has at least a 50/50 chance of doing--I believe it will probably develop into a serious hurricane."
blog

[Thunder44]

I smell a big bust coming on 97L - just my feeling.

I smell another Chris but at least he got a name and was classified, 97L hasn't even gotten that. I don't think anyone should write this off just yet.

Definitely not writing it off but looking at it now I agree with WxMan that the chances of development are now like 50-60%

Those chance are actually quite good. Especially compared to the chances he's given other systems this season.

[Thunder44]

From Dr. Jeff Masters' blog: "If 97L can survive the next two days and separate from the South American coast--which it has at least a 50/50 chance of doing--I believe it will probably develop into a serious hurricane."
blog

I saw that. He places the "center" now at 11N 59W which seems a little too far SW, looking at surface obs.

[cycloneye]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTCP.html

There are SSW winds at Tobago.But still the elusive west winds are not found.

[skysummit]

I still give 97L good chances of developing. Because it's only a wave, it'll pulse up and down with convection. The surface features look decent. Now, if convection increases, it might not take long for it to get new life.

[ConvergenceZone]

I smell a big bust coming on 97L - just my feeling.

I smell another Chris but at least he got a name and was classified, 97L hasn't even gotten that. I don't think anyone should write this off just yet.

another Chris huh? well, you could be right. This season should be named, "The season of frustration"

[Josephine96]

I'm smelling a nice storm out of this 1.. Don't give up on this 1 folks.. It is late August.

We shall wait and see what recon finds..

[gatorcane]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTCP.html

There are SSW winds at Tobago.But still the elusive west winds are not found.

Could just be due to thunderstorms in the vicinity. Nothing to be alarmed at yet.

[skysummit]

I smell a big bust coming on 97L - just my feeling.

I smell another Chris but at least he got a name and was classified, 97L hasn't even gotten that. I don't think anyone should write this off just yet.

another Chris huh? well, you could be right. This season should be named, "The season of frustration"

How young are you? If nothing comes out of this and the rest of the season, it should be named "The season of celebration".

[ConvergenceZone]

I smell a big bust coming on 97L - just my feeling.

I smell another Chris but at least he got a name and was classified, 97L hasn't even gotten that. I don't think anyone should write this off just yet.

another Chris huh? well, you could be right. This season should be named, "The season of frustration"

How young are you? If nothing comes out of this and the rest of the season, it should be named "The season of celebration".

I'm 40.
and I guarantee you, I'm in HUGE company of those folks on here that like to track storms.

[Josephine96]

I think frustration better.. I hate when the tropics are quiet

After 3 direct hits in 2004, and a record breaking 2005.. I think I got spoiled..

[skysummit]

I smell a big bust coming on 97L - just my feeling.

I smell another Chris but at least he got a name and was classified, 97L hasn't even gotten that. I don't think anyone should write this off just yet.

another Chris huh? well, you could be right. This season should be named, "The season of frustration"

How young are you? If nothing comes out of this and the rest of the season, it should be named "The season of celebration".

I'm 40.
and I guarantee you, I'm in HUGE company of those folks on here that like to track storms.

LOL...you're older than me! I'm 30. I'll shut up now

[skysummit]

I think frustration better.. I hate when the tropics are quiet

After 3 direct hits in 2004, and a record breaking 2005.. I think I got spoiled..

Yea, but in Kiss/St. Cloud you didn't get a "direct hit". You got the "land version"......no surge.

[beachbum_al]

I just read what one of local mets here in Mobile has to say about 97L. Very interesting and remember this was written last night I believe.

Now, on to something that really bears watching. A large and well organized tropical wave is drifting west-northwest at 15-20 mph toward the southernmost Windward Islands. A 1012 mb low is accompanying this wave. This wave will enter an environment in the southern Caribbean Sea that has lighter wind shear, and of course warm sea surface temps. Such conditions could allow this wave to develop into a depression or even a tropical storm (Ernesto is the next name on the list). Recconaisance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday. Low latituade systems that develop in the eastern Caribbean are often times trouble spots and can lead to Maalox moments for forecasters. The early runs of the tropical models show a continued west-northwest motion toward the central Caribbean Sea by the weekend. Longer range global models like the Canadien (CMC) model have taken the system as far west as the Bay of Campeche as a well developed storm on a westerly path. The GFS loses the system overall. As with any early models, its better to study the models once a system has actually developed.

Our part of the Gulf coast is now in a weakness between two upper ridges of high pressure. The western ridge should begin building back east through the weekend. Likewise some models are showing the eastern ridge (Bermuda) high building back west. So, this may go a long way in determing where a Caribbean based system might move. This system could very well become a Gulf issue late in the weekend and early next week. Should the ridges hold and remain strong, it might result in a western Gulf issue. But, before we get that far we have to see if this thing actually gets going. The Saharan Dust Layer that has killed off several waves already this year (thank goodness), is limiting the north side of the wave. It might not be enough though to kill off the system. I have provided another computer model link for this tropical wave below. I will provide another update later on Thursday.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif

http://community.wpmi.com/blogs/davids_weather_blog/

This is from NBC out of Mobile David Glenn.

[Derek Ortt]

things sure have changed dramatically over night

the upper high has not continued to develop and it looks like westerly shear has started to impact the system as el nino-like conditions reign over the Caribbean

This went from a sure thing to maybe the opposite. A TD could still form, but the chances seem MUCH less than 24 hours ago.

[Josephine96]

Ok smart alec But I got plenty of wind damage.. and a ton of rain..

[skysummit]

Ok smart alec But I got plenty of wind damage.. and a ton of rain..

LOL...I'm just messin' with ya!

[beachbum_al]

things sure have changed dramatically over night

the upper high has not continued to develop and it looks like westerly shear has started to impact the system as el nino-like conditions reign over the Caribbean

This went from a sure thing to maybe the opposite. A TD could still form, but the chances seem MUCH less than 24 hours ago.

Thanks Derek. That was from last night. I don't think he has updated his blog today and I missed the morning weather updates on t.v. because I as taking the girls to school this morning. So maybe we will have a quiet Labor Day.