Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Canelaw99]

Too early to tell who in the U.S. might be in the cone....we just have to watch and wait.

[gatorcane]

I hope we are in the cone first since that usually means we end up not gettin hit

[Air Force Met]

Ohhhh, nonsense. Eastern Cuba actually has some pretty high peaks--as high as 6500 feet, as I recall. That's tall enough to tear up ANY hurricane. The terrain in central Cuba is hilly and gets higher as you head east. As powerful as hurricanes are, they are also very fragile when their circulation is disturbed and they start entraining dry air. It doesn't take as much as most people think to knock the stuffing out of a cane.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

Uhh...no...that is nonsense. Eastern Cuba doesn't kill storms unless they are really weak and they take a really bad track over it...for a long time. Those mountains will disrupt the flow...and it might take the storm a while to get its act back together...but it won't kill it. The mountains may be 6500 feet tall...but they don't take up a lot of area. The broader low-level circulation survives...and the mid-level circulation survives...
hence the storm survives.

Thank you, AFM

Well...people certainly reserve the right to be wrong all they want.

[Canelaw99]

LOL, very true gatorcane, very true....

[Stormcenter]

I'm starting to see "-removed-" type predictions on TD5's future path.

[southerngale]

wouldn't it go into Mexico if those tracks verified? or do you expect it to turn a little bit more north which would force it into Texas?

Could well go inland as far south as Tampico. I'd pick the area from just north of Tampico to the mid LA coast as my early estimate.

You left a lot of room for error.

Because it's too early to pinpoint a specific area. Not really room for error...just too early to call. Pretty smart, IMO.

[Air Force Met]

I'm starting to see "-removed-" type predictions on TD5's future path.

Naaaw...that never happens here.

[Frank P]

Let's watch Bob Breck New Orleans met and see where his buddy VIPIR takes it. It may take it up the east coast.

HA... poor ole Bob... he'll be eating Katrina crow for some time... on a more serious note... I am just loving the 18Z model runs... the more this thing stays on a bee line to Mexico or Texas, the better for the SE LA, MS and AL coast... not to wish harm on anyone from the great state of Texas but we desperately need a break this year...

will seriously start watching for the westward trends to continue with each run.... can only hope.... nothing etched in granite as we all know how this can change in a heartbeat...

[Wx_Warrior]

Way too early for that....

[Stormcenter]

I'm starting to see "-removed-" type predictions on TD5's future path.

Naaaw...that never happens here.

Yeah I'm sorry, what was I thinking.

[gatorcane]

all of this worrying makes me wonder about the paradox that modern technology brings here - while on the one hand it keeps us better-informed it also causes alot of unnecessary worrying.

I could probably ignore this completely and nothing would even happen to me here in South Florida.

[CronkPSU]

psssst there is another thread for one liners and general chit chat about -removed- and where you think it is going, etc

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88651&start=40&sid=773ebae6f35d591e40e46274a5eb6ca7

[CrazyC83]

As Debby goes , this becomes the most ominous sight so far this season. I think this could be extremely dangerous in the days ahead...

[southerngale]

Let's watch Bob Breck New Orleans met and see where his buddy VIPIR takes it. It may take it up the east coast.

HA... poor ole Bob... he'll be eating Katrina crow for some time... on a more serious note... I am just loving the 18Z model runs... the more this thing stays on a bee line to Mexico or Texas, the better for the SE LA, MS and AL coast... not to wish harm on anyone from the great state of Texas but we desperately need a break this year...

will seriously start watching for the westward trends to continue with each run.... can only hope.... nothing etched in granite as we all know how this can change in a heartbeat...

Ummm...so do we! Did you forget RITA? Many people still in FEMA trailers or living with relatives, rebuilding, etc.

[dwg71]

Let's watch Bob Breck New Orleans met and see where his buddy VIPIR takes it. It may take it up the east coast.

HA... poor ole Bob... he'll be eating Katrina crow for some time... on a more serious note... I am just loving the 18Z model runs... the more this thing stays on a bee line to Mexico or Texas, the better for the SE LA, MS and AL coast... not to wish harm on anyone from the great state of Texas but we desperately need a break this year...

will seriously start watching for the westward trends to continue with each run.... can only hope.... nothing etched in granite as we all know how this can change in a heartbeat...

Agreed Frank, I would love to get some nice waves in Galveston, but let it go further to the south.

[ConvergenceZone]

I still think this will hit Mexico, unless it doesn't.

[Buck]

I still think this will hit Mexico, unless it doesn't.

Now, don't be so precise! It's so early to call something so exact.

[Frank P]

Let's watch Bob Breck New Orleans met and see where his buddy VIPIR takes it. It may take it up the east coast.

HA... poor ole Bob... he'll be eating Katrina crow for some time... on a more serious note... I am just loving the 18Z model runs... the more this thing stays on a bee line to Mexico or Texas, the better for the SE LA, MS and AL coast... not to wish harm on anyone from the great state of Texas but we desperately need a break this year...

will seriously start watching for the westward trends to continue with each run.... can only hope.... nothing etched in granite as we all know how this can change in a heartbeat...

Ummm...so do we! Did you forget RITA? Many people still in FEMA trailers or living with relatives, rebuilding, etc.

I guess I was unaware that Texas got hit that hard from Rita, I thought most of the damage was in SW LA... sorry about that, obviously my bad....... so occupied with my own problems I've never investigated what Rita did to Texas... actually I was thinking that this might be headed toward middle Texas, which I'm pretty sure was unaffected by Rita.... I hope no one gets hit period, but if someone has to get hit, I only hope its not someone that got pummeled last year from any of the major storms..

[gatorcane]

I still think this will hit Mexico, unless it doesn't.

Now, don't be so precise! It's so early to call something so exact.

I think he is wischasting for some of his Mexican friends!!!

[gatorcane]

Let's watch Bob Breck New Orleans met and see where his buddy VIPIR takes it. It may take it up the east coast.

HA... poor ole Bob... he'll be eating Katrina crow for some time... on a more serious note... I am just loving the 18Z model runs... the more this thing stays on a bee line to Mexico or Texas, the better for the SE LA, MS and AL coast... not to wish harm on anyone from the great state of Texas but we desperately need a break this year...

will seriously start watching for the westward trends to continue with each run.... can only hope.... nothing etched in granite as we all know how this can change in a heartbeat...

Ummm...so do we! Did you forget RITA? Many people still in FEMA trailers or living with relatives, rebuilding, etc.

I guess I was unaware that Texas got hit that hard from Rita, I thought most of the damage was in SW LA... sorry about that, obviously my bad....... so occupied with my own problems I've never investigated what Rita did to Texas... actually I was thinking that this might be headed toward middle Texas, which I'm pretty sure was unaffected by Rita.... I hope no one gets hit period, but if someone has to get hit, I only hope its not someone that got pummeled last year... from any of the major storm...

don't worry I [and many others] have made the same mistake. I guess the media didn't portray it right (that is a whole other topic)...