TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[Derek Ortt]

Claudette as a wave looked a LOT better than this thing does

[Brent]

Of course that's the LLC that popped out of the western side. There is no LLC under that convection. Could one reform there....yes. Will it.....probably not. This LLC may not be done though. Let's see what the plane finds though.

I didn't see your post before I posted mine...I agree...I think that is what we are seeing....a good MLC with the LLC speeding out from under it due to the shear.

My head hurts.

[ConvergenceZone]

Claudette as a wave looked a LOT better than this thing does

well, if this is a wave now , it will be a storm soon, looks too good not to be.

[miamicanes177]

Claudette as a wave looked a LOT better than this thing does

do you still think it will be a cat 2 hurricane in the gulf?

[Noles2006]

If it isn't named now... there's a chance it may never be named... which would be great!

[Steve H.]

Yeah, its wait and see time AFM.

[skysummit]

Well.....45mph at the surface now, but is there a closed LLC?

[Noles2006]

chris -- yeah, either way it's no longer a tropical depression. It's either the remnants of TD 5 or Tropical Storm Ernesto.

[Derek Ortt]

my forecast assumes a TC and I will wait until recon

now, if there was not going to be recon and I was the NHC forecaster on duty, this would have been killed off at 11

[Steve H.]

This ain't over though. Rollercoaster ride folks...hold on tight. Need to work out....I'm procrastinating....that will buy me an hour or two whilest the plane checketh the area out. Cheers!!

[ConvergenceZone]

chris -- yeah, either way it's no longer a tropical depression. It's either the remnants of TD 5 or Tropical Storm Ernesto.

well, if it's a wave, ALL EYES NO TURN TO THE WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC!!!... I'll be all over that thread if this comes back as being a wave in a few minutes...

[skysummit]

Central ball of convection looks like it's making an attempt to come back again on AVN.

[skysummit]

URNT12 KNHC 251724
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/17:15:20Z
B. 14 deg 04 min N
066 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 48 deg 039 nm
F. 118 deg 048 kt
G. 048 deg 040 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 304 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0205A CYCLONE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 17:01:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT

[gatorcane]

There is some intense shear just west of TD #5. Look at the cloud tops racing to the NE just west of TD #5 - NOT good for development of TD #5...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

There is a big TUTT ULL just north of Jamaica causing this shear...its moving west but quick enough? I don't know.

[deltadog03]

however the shear is just about to relax. you can see the low level clouds starting to move to the west again.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks like TD 5/Ernesto may be feeling the leading edge of the upper-level shear from the ULL/weak trough interaction to the west-northwest. You can see the LLC starting to weakly protrude from under the main convective mass due to shear on this loop. Note the better organization and LLC more under the convection in the first frame and gradual protruding LLC and less organization in later frames. This also lends support that we may have had Ernesto a few hours before RECON arrived.

As the ULL to the west-northwest may weaken a bit, the upper-level shear may decrease a bit, though.

[miamicanes177]

Well recon has confirmed we have TS Ernesto. So someone can now change the title to reflect this breaking news.

[Brent]

Well recon has confirmed we have TS Ernesto. So someone can now change the title to reflect this breaking news.

Until there's something official from the NHC it's not.

[El Nino]

Well recon has confirmed we have TS Ernesto. So someone can now change the title to reflect this breaking news.

Is this official or not ?