Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[skysummit]

I just watched all of the local NOLA mets except for ABC26. Each one said we need to watch it, however it's still far away. No one dismissed it. Each one mentioned the shear, however each one agreed on slow strengthening.

Also....each one mentioned TUESDAY would be decision day if the track stays the same or jogs east.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just watched all of the local NOLA mets except for ABC26. Each one said we need to watch it, however it's still far away. No one dismissed it. Each one mentioned the shear, however each one agreed on slow strengthening.

Also....each one mentioned TUESDAY would be decision day if the track stays the same or jogs east.

Or west.

[outbound]

Caldisk I know. It all has to do is when that tutt backs off...If the tutt got into the right area it could even enhance this system over those waters.

I thought the TUTT was a permanent feature?

[Cape Verde]

Why are the posts so wide?

Stormwatcher1 broke it by posting a link that was that wide. It needs to removed or replaced.

[jhamps10]

seeing some speks of brown on the IR sat. Looks like the shear did not kill him, just may have made him stronger with time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Caldisk I know. It all has to do is when that tutt backs off...If the tutt got into the right area it could even enhance this system over those waters.

I thought the TUTT was a permanent feature?

It lifts out and reformed. Moves west or east. Each tutt ULL reinforces it. As a ULL moves southwestward...So yes its a semi Permanent Feature.

[Air Force Met]

AFM What direction and how fast do you think he is going right now?

It's actually not moving that fast. I think it is an optical illusion because the convection is building that way. Looks to be moving at 10-13 knots...based on GHCC points analysis.

[GalvestonDuck]

Why are the posts so wide?

Fixed now via tinyurl.com

[Trugunzn]

After reaching center the convecton is getting bigger.........

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like a healthy weak TS right now.

[Cookiely]

Mobile Alabama NWS (No Need To Panic)
TROPICS...TD 5 HAS NOW BECOME TS ERNESTO. THE SYSTEM IS STILL BEING
IMPACTED BY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER. THE SHEAR REMAINS RATHER STRONG AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM W/ NEARLY 50 KTS OF SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE SHEAR
RELAXES. IF THIS TROPICAL STORM SURVIVES IT WOULD LIKELY MAKE IT
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AS A HURRICANE. MOVEMENT BEYOND THAT IS PURE
SPECULATION AT BEST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND ITS STRENGTH AND LOCATION WILL BE THE
KEY PLAYER IN WHERE THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY GOES. RIGHT NOW...NO NEED
TO PANIC...JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH. /13

[clfenwi]

I've been doing a little model forecast verifcation starting from 18Z yesterday... so far the models have demonstrated a little bit of a left bias (meaning that the storm has moved more north than forecast). As far as performance goes, it looks like the offical forecast has them all beat up to this point.

[Mac]

I've been doing a little model forecast verifcation starting from 18Z yesterday... so far the models have demonstrated a little bit of a left bias (meaning that the storm has moved more north than forecast). As far as performance goes, it looks like the offical forecast has them all beat up to this point.

Ahhh, yes. The 'ol "humans are still better critical thinkers than computer models" trick.

[Droop12]

I just cant help but thing Ernesto will survive heading into that area of shear. It doesnt look to be abating and Ernesto will arrive in the next 24 hours. JMO, but I dont think it looks to good for Ernesto right now.

[Brent]

Well the local met wasn't helpful. Said it could go anywhere from Brownsville to Tampa and could be a significant hurricane.

[skysummit]

I just watched all of the local NOLA mets except for ABC26. Each one said we need to watch it, however it's still far away. No one dismissed it. Each one mentioned the shear, however each one agreed on slow strengthening.

Also....each one mentioned TUESDAY would be decision day if the track stays the same or jogs east.

Or west.

Uh....no. By "decision day", I meant decision day to call for evacuations.

[Scorpion]

I just cant help but thing Ernesto will survive heading into that area of shear. It doesnt look to be abating and Ernesto will arrive in the next 24 hours. JMO, but I dont think it looks to good for Ernesto right now.

Yes, the TUTT is retreating west. Ernesto will survive.

[cpdaman]

the shear is very strong just west wether it is moving or not this storm is not out of the woods with the shear yet

[Droop12]

Well the local met wasn't helpful. Said it could go anywhere from Brownsville to Tampa and could be a significant hurricane.

Unless the mets have a crystal ball, the fact that Ernesto is still in the Caribbean could be why they arent being very helpful right now. What else could they say?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just watched all of the local NOLA mets except for ABC26. Each one said we need to watch it, however it's still far away. No one dismissed it. Each one mentioned the shear, however each one agreed on slow strengthening.

Also....each one mentioned TUESDAY would be decision day if the track stays the same or jogs east.

Or west.

Uh....no. By "decision day", I meant decision day to call for evacuations.

you also said, "if the track stays the same or jogs east."