T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[wxman57]

500 pattern Thurs at 18Z..High now over Texas Got it fixed..LOL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

So what you saying? it is to go northwest or into TX?

That pattern would suggest a track across the FL Peninsula, just what the GFS is forecasting. Doesn't mean it'll happen, as it's been flip-flopping all over.

[curtadams]

CNN's met Bonnie Schenider just said shear is tearing apart the storm. Just FYI.

But ... but ... but ... all evening long last night the "meteorologist" CNN kept going to (thankfully for him I don't recall his name) kept saying Ernesto was heading into an "extremely low-shear environment."

Actually, you could parse that earlier statement as saying Ernesto would be in a low-shear environment once it's past Jamaica. Quite reasonable. Spoken language is rarely as precise as written.

[wxman57]

Its very hard to tell where/if theres a llc underneath all those cirrus clouds...just wait for recon and all your questions will be answered (at least most of them)

That would be a good suggestion. We'll just have to wait to be sure where the center is. With that, it's time for lunch!

[SouthFloridawx]

500 pattern Thurs at 18Z..High now over Texas Got it fixed..LOL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

Fixed...

That looks like a weakness in betweend the atlantic ridge and the ridge over texas.

[Wx_Warrior]

Pushing more and more east...Doest bode well for NOLA on east.....

[KFDM Meteorologist]

All the new data this morning shows it more easterly next week. The 500 map i have posted shows high building over Texas and Ernie well east of Texas.

[timNms]

afm, what is your read on where this thing is headed late next week? saw you are not really buying into the model depiction of strength of trough. Thanks.

Mid-TX coast to NOLA....heavy emphasis on LA coast.

I think you've pegged it. I just don't see that trough digging this far south and moving the high pressure to the east...not this time of year, it's very rare...

Not trying to be disrespectful, but wasn't there a trough about this time last year that turned Katrina northward? I think about the same thing occured that turned Camille northward about this time of year.

[HouTXmetro]

500 pattern Thurs at 18Z..High now over Texas

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

That means it can't plow through a Texas high so it has to go North/NorthEastward somewhere in the NC or NE Gulf right?

[Extremeweatherguy]

500 pattern Thurs at 18Z..High now over Texas Got it fixed..LOL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

Fixed...

That looks like a weakness in betweend the atlantic ridge and the ridge over texas.

I would throw out the GFS right now. It has been the flip-flop model king over the last few days and until it shows a 3-4 run trend it seems useless. Also, it is showing too weak a system lately as well, which means it is having issues initializing it correctly.

[gatorcane]

new GFS takes it into the Big Bend of FL/ west coast of FL folks...

[dwg71]

of course you would through it out... it's been trending east for 3 or 4 runs now...

[curtadams]

I"m sure this is going to sound like a very stupid question to you pros out here, please bare with me:

When I look at the NHC track, the jump from Sunday to Monday in distance SEEMS to be much quicker(ie, the storm is moving faster, gains more distance) than the Saturday to Sunday move.

Does the storm pick up speed at that particular time or am I not reading this correctly?

The NHC deliberately forecast Sat to Sun slow yesterday so they could put off pointing the black line at a specific spot. Since they are obsessed with continuity they probably haven't completely corrected that. They may not yet even want to since the location is still so up in the air.

[Wx_Warrior]

Let's hope the ol High will keep us clear this time around....may not be so nice next storm.

[6SpeedTA95]

All the new data this morning shows it more easterly next week. The 500 map i have posted shows high building over Texas and Ernie well east of Texas.

I wonder why they have a high building in over texas...thats kind of odd based on our local forcasters saying that a front and low pressure system will push through our area and northern 1/2 of texas by mid week to late week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow..I can only imagine all the "it's going to FL" talk that is going to pop up in the next few hours. Of course, this will just change again when the next run of the GFS shows something different (yet again).

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing I'm sure of, there's no LLC near 15.1N/71.4W (extrapolated from NHC's 15Z position of 15.1/71.2). Nothing even remotely looking like low-level clouds rotating there. Do any of you see an LLC west of the convection? That was the point of my original post.

There is a moderate MLC to the northeast near 15.7N/70.5W, but no observations to confirm an LLC. Look at the arc of clouds streaming westward south of the DR. Squalls streaming away to the west don't indicate a significant inflow. I am not saying there is no closed low there, but it may be more broad and weaker than earlier today.

We will have to wait for the plane to see just where the center is. I think it looks less organized than earlier.

wxman57, isn't this a bit expected though with the shear conditions it's had to go through?? I know I didn't expect it to go through this shear and come out looking really good. I just knew that for it's survival it had to remain at least A LITTLE bit together. That convection isn't going to die down anytime soon. I'm surprised it looks even THIS good. Once I knew it had the shear to encounter, I was expecting maybe a marginal tropical storm or tropical depression, and then AFTER it passes the shear, THEN the storm would explode.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

From my experience the last 2 years the GFS hasn't done bad once it picks a system up.

[gatorcane]

From my experience the last 2 years the GFS hasn't done bad once it picks a system up.

are you saying a turn into the FL panhandle or West Coast of FL is possible here? Is the GFS on crack?

[6SpeedTA95]

From my experience the last 2 years the GFS hasn't done bad once it picks a system up.

Yeah it hasn't been bad as far as forcasting goes. Still this far out its making the NHC shoot with a shotgun and hope they hit something.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

It's possible.