TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18Z GFS..WEDNESDAY EVENING

18z GFS

[Stratosphere747]

Convergence -- it's just like those who live in Texas are very adament that it's heading towards SE Texas/SW Louisiana.

Noles...

There are very FEW Texans that feel this way. Please don't lump "us" Texans in this category based on a select few...

[kjun]

Here is what if just heard from New Orleans Mets on the top of hour preview of Ernie:

Ron Smiley--He said the news is good tonight for New Orleans. The track has shifted east, and in his personal opinion "the track will shift even more east.

Dawn Brown--"The center has MOVED north and 2 degrees east" (SIKE). The forecast has shifted to the Big Ben of Florida.

Other ABC Station--Ernie is shifting east.

Listening to all three, seems like NO is a good shape. Last year all over AGAIN!!!

[gatorcane]

wow new GFS just off Tampa!!!!

Unbelievable folks....I love the tropics they are so suspenseful!!!

[PTPatrick]

HEHE...they want to get their supplies before the mass hysteria

[Stormcenter]

hehe just an observation, do you notice that almost everyone who thinks this is headed towards Florida(and I don't mean the panhandle) resides in Florida?


I don't blame them though. It's normal to be concerned for the state you reside in......I'd probably be thinking the same way if I lived in south Florida..You can never be too safe.

I guess I am in the minority, as I think this is purely a Central GOM threat .

Hello Mr. Minority.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Cape Verde]

One things for sure,if Ernesto makes a hard turn east,he will get shredded to pieces over Cuba

If any hurricane turns east, it deserves a medal.

[Scorpion]

Looks like a Panhandle to Big Bend hit to me, for now. It's within driving range, so I might chase it.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

PS...new 102 HOURS gfs KEEPS the system intact, despite the crazy right turn over cuba...then moves it back more NW skirting the West coast FL

I think the more interesting thing about the GFS run is that it completely erodes the mid level ridge at 90 hours leaving the storm to go north and maybe even NE before landfall.

[Acral]

Well the Eastern Cuban track I was hoping for does not look like it will pan out, I fear the models are pushing too far east, but as we all know, it is still way early in this cycle.

[gatorcane]

PS...new 102 HOURS gfs KEEPS the system intact, despite the crazy right turn over cuba...then moves it back more NW skirting the West coast FL

I think the more interesting thing about the GFS run is that it completely erodes the mid level ridge at 90 hours leaving the storm to go north and maybe even NE before landfall.

Can I say Charley all over again? Well I think there is a chance....but probably not likely what scares me is the fact that other models are bending it now N.....

gosh I am on the edge...I grew up in Tampa Bay - they cannot afford a hit.....

[PTPatrick]

Just looking at the 12 Z GFDL...hadnt noticed the hard right into CUBA, followed by the Katrina-esq turn back westward...before the eventualy turn North

[Noles2006]

Stratosphere -- sorry, didn't mean to offend you... however, I was just saying that if Convergence could make that conclusion about Floridians, then I could do the same about Texans... see, there's only one or two Floridians that are "hyping" a Florida hit.

[Bailey1777]

A98E is still the most likely out of those tracks.

[duris]

From New Orleans AFD. Seemingly buys into ridge will not be as strong scenario (works for me).

A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST IS ON THE PLATE AND SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
STUMBLING WITH ERNESTO AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...AS THE TROUGH UPSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEBRASKA
BY LATE SUNDAY...STALL THROUGH TUESDAY AND PUSH EAST OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PULL THE MOISTURE AXIS NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR
NORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH MAY OR MAY NOT LIFT THE
TS ERNESTO POSSIBLY HURRICANE ERNESTO NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
RIDGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE
ERNESTO 5 TO 7 DAY TRACK STAYING E OF 90W...DRY AIR ON THE BACK SIDE
WILL FILTER IN DUE TO THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO. A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LOWER THAN NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

[Scorpion]

PS...new 102 HOURS gfs KEEPS the system intact, despite the crazy right turn over cuba...then moves it back more NW skirting the West coast FL

I think the more interesting thing about the GFS run is that it completely erodes the mid level ridge at 90 hours leaving the storm to go north and maybe even NE before landfall.

Can I say Charley all over again? Well I think there is a chance....but probably not likely what scares me is the fact that other models are bending it now N.....

gosh I am on the edge...I grew up in Tampa Bay - they cannot afford a hit.....

This is borderline rediculous. WHERE is the massive trough to take this to Tampa? I sure don't see one. I see a slight erosion of a ridge that would probably take it to the Panhandle or the Big Bend.

[Normandy]

Stratosphere -- sorry, didn't mean to offend you... however, I was just saying that if Convergence could make that conclusion about Floridians, then I could do the same about Texans... see, there's only one or two Floridians that are "hyping" a Florida hit.

I could count at least 5-10.

[gatorcane]

the difference with Dennis is that the models didn't show a North and NNE bend late like this one is doing...

that tells me the models are already sniffing out the shortwave and that to me is not a good sign.......

[PTPatrick]

I dont even think A98E is a really dynamic model...its and its friends the BAMMS are in Left field, literally