TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

[tgenius]

Yep, a lil rain makes for nice sleeping conditions, though I may open the shutters soon..

[Bgator]

If it had 12 more hours...it couldve strengthened...

[HurricaneHunter914]

It can still strengthen, but probably not much.

[MiamiensisWx]

Interaction with the trough and some mixing out of the mid-level drier air appears to be aiding in better convective consolidation just before landfall of the LLC a bit now. This could also aid more in heavier rains and more widespread gusty winds locally.

Looks like a good decision to keep my shutters up.

[Trugunzn]

Looks to be very close to landfall probally within half hour?

[rnbaida]

wunderground server is down....site is overloaded

[stormernie]

A new center seems to be forming south of the previous position/ Look at the Keywest radar and you can see a closing on the southern side. It could be that the center is enlongted and it may be tighting up.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 29, 2006



...Ernesto not strengthening as it nears South Florida...hurricane
watches in Florida discontinued...

at 8 PM EDT...0000z...all hurricane watches for Florida are
discontinued.
At 9 PM EDT...the government of the Bahamas will discontinue all
hurricane watches in the northwestern Bahamas.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Englewood on the
Florida West Coast southward...around the Florida Peninsula...and
northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia...including all the Florida
Keys and Lake Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Andros Island...the
Berry Islands...the biminis and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Englewood to
Tarpon Springs Florida.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect north of Altamaha Sound to Cape
Fear North Carolina.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 24.8 north...longitude 80.4 west or about 15
miles...25 km...southeast of Islamorada Florida and about 70
miles...115 km...south of Miami Florida.

Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue today and tonight. On
this track...the center will be crossing the Florida Keys during the
next hour or two...and reaching the Florida Peninsula near
midnight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected prior to landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected in areas of onshore flow within the warning area.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible near the track of
Ernesto over central and South Florida including the Keys through
Wednesday...with isolated amounts up to 15 inches possible.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 6
inches are expected over eastern and central Cuba. Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are
possible over the Bahamas.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over southern Florida including the
Keys this evening and tonight.

Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...24.8 N...80.4 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[MiamiensisWx]

A new center seems to be forming south of the previous position/ Look at the Keywest radar and you can see a closing on the southern side. It could be that the center is enlongted and it may be tighting up.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=byx&loop=yes

I believe that's a mid-level feature. If this keeps up, however, this may be slowly getting down to the surface and may become the more dominant LLC possibly. It could also allow, along with the synoptics, better convective consolidation, especially if the weak LLC near Key Largo weakens further as crosses land.

[HURAKAN]

Even though in every storm we have to prepare for the worse, the common people take every storm very serious when they prepare and expect severe conditions every time they're told to prepare. The effects in the public post-Ernesto could be worse than during Ernesto since these persons may become discouraged to prepare for the next storm and the next storm could be a big one.

We all know these predictions are not easy to make, but most of the public doesn't understand this.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ernesto will remain a 45 mph TS at landfall, as of now flooding is the main threat with Ernesto.

[stormtruth]

Still going NW? Is Ern supposed to turn N soon?

[JonathanBelles]

im hoping itll stay nw for awhile.

[Gorky]

This is where the VDM places the center of Ernesto now. Looks like it's wrapping up nicely now...

[Bgator]

I see where thast forming and if you look at it, its moving due north...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Just a big rain maker for FL.

[tgenius]

I'm just wondering it this is it for the night.. we going to even get any wind out of this at all, seeing as the center will be nearby.


Just as I said that, I finally heard thunder, lol

[StormWarning1]

It's over as fas ar strengthening goes. Center is moving in between Key largo and Marathon right now, viscious 20 MPH winds at Key Largo, LOL.

Satellite presentation usually improves with these weak systems once they get inland, don't mistake this for intensification.

Only mystery left is will this get another shot once it moves offshore and up toward the Carolinas.

Anyone really think Ernesto was a hurricane as it neared Haiti, I don't.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Good point. Very close on if it was ever a Hurricane.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Did not RECON find cat 1 winds? Very tiny area yes, but still 1/5/0.