TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[Droop12]

It won't make a category 2, 10 hours for a windspeed raise like that would be insane, Droop....

but with things have been going, I wouldn't count it out completely, I guess.

Not really, if he's even close to hurricane intensity now in a hour or 2, its not out of the question. I think the NHC may lowball the forecast alittle, just because they didnt forecast it even making it back to hurricane strength.

[TampaFl]

11:00AM position

[Jim Cantore]

Is it just me, or is he forming an eye?

[theworld]

Nice shot of the Eye popping out... on last frame...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


and see 'wxman57' post on previous page.

[windnrain]

Yeah, it's not out of the question, Droop, and if that indeed turns out to be the case...

I fear for the people that left their kids at school, that did not board up their windows, that made no preparations at all.

[TampaFl]

11:00AM position

[jasons2k]

I don't think the criticism (at least from me) isn't with the forecasts. Everyone including myself is eating crow.

The point is that SC/NC should be under a hurricane warning. This is the drefiniton from the NHC - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYC:

Hurricane Warning:
A warning that sustained winds 64 kt (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or higher associated with a hurricane are expected in a specified coastal area in 24 hours or less. A hurricane warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.

--now, is there anyone NOT expecting this??

[shaggy]

satellite is showing an eye trying to form and if he moves anymore to the east and WORSE case he misses cape fear before landfalling on bogue banks is really the only way i see this storm getting to cat 2 and that would be a stretch.However i think he will bring gusty winds further inland than people are thinking because of the gradient between him and the high and the fact that he will still be gaining strength when he makes his landfall.Already raining heavy and they just issued a flood warning for the tar river in my county because of the heavy rains from yesterday you add ernestos rain to that and then we might have some problems.

[jasons2k]

I thought I read somewhere a few hours ago that recon reported an open eyewall forming - it was open to the NW.

[artist]

those of you stating the NHC would low ball it on purpose should be ashamed of yourselves. They take their responsibilties seriously - knowing they are dealing with possible life and death with the decisions they make. I think it shouldn't be allowed to make such casual accusations like that here. I also understand that NHC employees lurk here at times, what a pity for them to have to see such posts when they are doing their absolute bests to keep everyone safe.

[Jim Cantore]

those of you stating the NHC would low ball it on purpose should be ashamed of yourselves. They take their responsibilties seriously - knowing they are dealing with possible life and death with the decisions they make. I think it shouldn't be allowed to make such casual accusations like that here. I also understand that NHC employees lurk here at times, what a pity for them to have to see such posts when they are doing their absolute bests to keep everyone safe.

I never accuse the of lowballing on purpose. I agreed that it wouldn't get to Hurricane strength (it hasn't yet but I think it will now)

They can't be right all the time. But they provide a great service to us all that I for one couldn't do without.

[Droop12]

those of you stating the NHC would low ball it on purpose should be ashamed of yourselves. They take their responsibilties seriously - knowing they are dealing with possible life and death with the decisions they make. I think it shouldn't be allowed to make such casual accusations like that here. I also understand that NHC employees lurk here at times, what a pity for them to have to see such posts when they are doing their absolute bests to keep everyone safe.

True, but then they must see something we dont, I see a storm nearing hurricane intensity soon which is kinda obvious and there arent any warnings out. Landfall is about 10 hours away. There seems to be a problem there? Or am I wrong?

[westmoon]

all_we_know_is_FALLING,

Need any condiments with that, westmoon?

Jk.. Haha..

No but some lights would be nice, Just lost the power as the tail of this is comming off the GOM

[Jim Cantore]

those of you stating the NHC would low ball it on purpose should be ashamed of yourselves. They take their responsibilties seriously - knowing they are dealing with possible life and death with the decisions they make. I think it shouldn't be allowed to make such casual accusations like that here. I also understand that NHC employees lurk here at times, what a pity for them to have to see such posts when they are doing their absolute bests to keep everyone safe.

True, but then they must see something we dont, I see a storm nearing hurricane intensity soon which is kinda obvious and there arent any warnings out. Landfall is about 10 hours away. There seems to be a problem there? Or am I wrong?

I think they are going to wait to see what recon finds, they don't want to overhype ether. It's a tricky buisness. You get blamed for everything.

[artist]

Droop - then if they have evidence of that - they will either post an intermediate advisor stating such or a the next advisory - whichever they feel is of the best interest to everyone involved.

[Wthrman13]

There is a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning. In my opinion that really should be adequate for people right now. It tells them to expect, by and large, tropical storm force conditions with the potential for it to be a bit stronger than that, and covers the bases of what realistically to expect with this storm. If the storm does continue to intensify, I imagine they will upgrade to a hurricane warning, however.

[Droop12]

Oh by the way, I believe your overreacting, I know a few folks from the NHC and have personally talked to them. I know how hard it is to forecast storms such as these, but I just dont get why there arent warnings out?

[IsaacRules06]

I cannot really feel sorry for anyone in NC/SC who dismissed "E" and now may not have a chance to make proper preparations...they have been in the CONE for three days now and should have at least taken some level of personal responsibility for the "what ifs" such as what is happening now...a stronger TS/minimal cane.

it's like the poor people south of us who dealt with Charley...acting all surprised that a storm dare change paths a few hours prior to landfall and get stronger.

good luck to those in the path....but do not whine and moan about it, you had fair notice that SOMETHING was coming.

[Jim Cantore]

This is why you should always prepare for a category higher then projected.

[fci]

those of you stating the NHC would low ball it on purpose should be ashamed of yourselves. They take their responsibilties seriously - knowing they are dealing with possible life and death with the decisions they make. I think it shouldn't be allowed to make such casual accusations like that here. I also understand that NHC employees lurk here at times, what a pity for them to have to see such posts when they are doing their absolute bests to keep everyone safe.

Hey, I have been flaming out here for the past 1 1/2 hours ever since I saw a Hurricane Watch reissued for this area a mere 12 hours before anticipated landfall.

I NEVER insinuated that this was done on purpose.

Maybe a little "gun shy" after overstating the situation down here in South Florida. Even Max Mayfield's wife put up shutters at his house! Perhaps they did not want to be accused of overstating the strength for NC/SC?

So, no accusation of low-balling on purpose but they should never err on the low side like they did here.,

Schools were not out today up there, people at work when they should be preparing. The facts are pretty clear here that it was a bad, unintentional blunder here by the NHC.

And I think they would probably admit it too, in hindsight.....