Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Ex 98L)

[perk]

Again, it will most likely become a fish.

You need to offer up some sound proof that this system is gonna be a fish.

take a look at the GFDL....One of the worlds best tropical systems model....

I reviewed all the available global models before i made my post, and i can't conclude from what i saw that this system if it develops will be a fish.

[cycloneye]

02/1145 UTC 11.0N 39.1W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic Ocean


This is the first T Number that SSD gives to 98L as last night they gave (too weak) designation.

[Nimbus]

Quoting JB about early model runs "they always have a northern bias right out of the gate".

An ULL is clearly visible on the water vapor imagery up aroun 27N. I don't see any rapid digging yet. It is kind of dry and 98l will likely do the weak/west thing for a couple more days. If 98 makes it west of the ULL axis near 45w and is still south of 12N then we should see her headed into the Caribbean.

Completely different storm if its not a fish.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060902 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060902 1200 060903 0000 060903 1200 060904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 39.2W 11.2N 41.0W 11.6N 42.5W 12.4N 43.5W
BAMM 11.0N 39.2W 11.4N 40.4W 12.1N 41.7W 13.0N 42.8W
A98E 11.0N 39.2W 11.1N 41.5W 11.4N 43.7W 11.8N 45.8W
LBAR 11.0N 39.2W 11.6N 41.4W 12.3N 43.4W 13.4N 45.6W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060904 1200 060905 1200 060906 1200 060907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 44.6W 14.7N 47.2W 14.9N 51.0W 14.0N 55.3W
BAMM 14.1N 44.2W 16.0N 47.1W 16.3N 50.7W 14.9N 53.8W
A98E 12.3N 47.6W 13.8N 51.5W 15.3N 55.3W 17.0N 59.4W
LBAR 14.3N 47.9W 16.7N 52.5W 19.1N 56.9W 22.5N 60.8W
SHIP 60KTS 74KTS 77KTS 75KTS
DSHP 60KTS 74KTS 77KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 39.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 37.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z BAM Models.

[Thunder44]

This system looks alot Ernesto when it was a Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic. I think it has a good chance to develop in the next few days.



I also think it will miss the connection with ULL to the north, especially if it remains weak. It doesn't seem moving that much southward this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[rnbaida]

We have a new invest--- 99L

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
Low level steering flow for weaker systems.

[Thunder44]

Rainbow images:

[rnbaida]

99L looks better...

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
Low level steering flow for weaker systems.

Why does the steering currents have to be towards FL?

[Thunder44]

99L looks better...

99L is under alot of SW shear.

[SouthFloridawx]

99L looks better...

99L is under alot of SW shear.

EDIT: sorry I just read that you said 99L

This is about 98L

At first glance I would agree with you but, taking a look at the 200mb analysis and the windshear charts at CIMSS it appears that the SW shear is actually winds moving away from the system.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg
200mb analysis

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7shr.html
Windshear

Which ends up being upper level divergent air on top of the system... helping to vent the storms.

[cycloneye]

99L looks better...

99L is under alot of SW shear.

98L has a better shot to develop first than 99L as the eastern Caribbean system has to deal with the trough to it's west.

[wxman57]

99L looks better...

Better than what? Looks much worse than yesterday. MLC no longer evident. I don't think that the models are focused on the correct area. That part around 39W is diminishing and/or being ripped apart. The place to watch is farther east, near 11N/35-36W.

[rnbaida]

Why would someone want to watch a system that is going to be a fish and affect NOBODY??? Isn't that boring?? I'm not saying I want it to come and destroy everything and cause deaths but It would be a lot more interesting than watching a system that will eventually turn north and dissipate...99L has a chance of getting deep into the Caribbean and might get close to the north Caribbean...It's a wait and see issue.

[bostonseminole]

I don't mind any tropical system.. fish storm or not, they are awesome to watch.

[Thunder44]

Why would someone want to watch a system that is going to be a fish and affect NOBODY??? Isn't that boring?? I'm not saying I want it to come and destroy everything and cause deaths but It would be a lot more interesting than watching a system that will eventually turn north and dissipate...99L has a chance of getting deep into the Caribbean and might get close to the north Caribbean...It's a wait and see issue.

How are you so certain this system is going to be a fish?

[El Nino]

About Chris, we thought it could be a severe TX storm and it dissipated near Hispanola.
About Ernesto, we thought it could be another Katrina and Hispanola weaked it too.

So, what about a not-fish for 98L ?

[Hyperstorm]

I agree with Chris. The system to watch is not the blob of disorganized mess near 40W, but the system near 35W. It already has the signature of pre-development. Upper-level winds remain marginally favorable where it is now (farther west and northwest...a totally different story), so slow development into something stronger is quite possible.

Today is a "gathering moisture" period. Tomorrow should be "consolidating convection". After that, possible low pressure formation.

I'll be watching it...

[cycloneye]

I agree with Chris. The system to watch is not the blob of disorganized mess near 40W, but the system near 35W. It already has the signature of pre-development. Upper-level winds remain marginally favorable where it is now (farther west and northwest...a totally different story), so slow development into something stronger is quite possible.

Today is a "gathering moisture" period. Tomorrow should be "consolidating convection". After that, possible low pressure formation.

I'll be watching it...

Yesterday,I was thinking that NHC in coordination with NRL would labeled 98L for the area more to the east (Where wxman57 and Hyperstorm said) than where they did and continue to show this morning.