TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

Thunder44 · #121 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:06 am

I don't see what TPC is seeing in their latest advisory. The storm appears to be getting better organized and perhaps intensifying on satellite imagery this morning with banding features now evident. Some outflow is beginning to develop even in the SW Quad now. I also suspect the center is little futher north then they have it. They need to get a plane in there.

Normandy · #122 Postby **Normandy** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:28 am

^Agred, def looks like its getting much much better organized.

cpdaman · #123 Postby **cpdaman** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:33 am

yes the satelite representation is taking on more of a consolidated rotating cyclone...instead of the constant BLOB IMO

#124 Postby **Cookiely** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:41 am

Maybe Florence is too big for her britches and that's why she hasn't become better organized and has kept the winds down. She went on an eating binge before she came off the African coast. Good girl Florence. :lol:

#125 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:43 am

FLORENCE WAKING UP!!!

Weatherfreak14 · #126 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:16 am

HURAKAN wrote:

FLORENCE WAKING UP!!!

It looks it woke up with a bad attitude.

Thatsmrhurricane · #127 Postby **Thatsmrhurricane** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:22 am

Edit: I removed the link to the Sat pic.

Good Morning.

What a thing to wake up to! Is it me, and I did just wake up, but notice the rather elongated swirl moving SW below the main convective body. Is that the LLC being displaced? Or, just a decrease in high cloud tops for the S semi-circle of Florence?

#128 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:44 am

HURAKAN wrote:

FLORENCE WAKING UP!!!

its looking like the dreaded "H" word!

#129 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:48 am

8:00AM EDT Discussion:

FLORENCE REMAINS A VERY BROAD ELONGATED SYSTEM AND REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM

i really disagree.

Josephine96 · #130 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:00 am

I don't agree with that statement either. She looks pretty healthy despite her size..

Stormavoider · #131 Postby **Stormavoider** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:11 am

Is it just an illusion or is this moving more west over the past hour or two?

#132 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:14 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:8:00AM EDT Discussion:

FLORENCE REMAINS A VERY BROAD ELONGATED SYSTEM AND REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM

i really disagree.

Well, I agree with the statement. Very poorly-organized. QuikSCAT says its even more poorly-organized than it looks. It doesn't show the whole circulation, but it does indicate that the center may be near 22.5N and possibly 58W at 12Z. That's southeast of that big blob of convection. I'm having a hard time locating the center with visible imagery.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

#133 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:18 am

wxman57 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:8:00AM EDT Discussion:

FLORENCE REMAINS A VERY BROAD ELONGATED SYSTEM AND REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM

i really disagree.

Well, I agree with the statement. Very poorly-organized. QuikSCAT says its even more poorly-organized than it looks. It doesn't show the whole circulation, but it does indicate that the center may be near 22.5N and possibly 58W at 12Z. That's southeast of that big blob of convection. I'm having a hard time locating the center with visible imagery.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

I also agree...she's been unorganized for the past 2 days with little pulses of hope every now and then. This morning....still unorganized.

Aquawind · #134 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:20 am

Well massive Florence has some intense widespread convection but until the elongated low pressure consolidates into the single stacked symmetrical center it won't be doing any real strengthening. That could happen anytime.

boca · #135 Postby **boca** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:21 am

Lets hope it remains elongated for Bermuda's sake.

#136 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:34 am

Here's a McIDAS shot with the 12Z position indicated.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence25.gif

#137 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:39 am

TPNT KGWC 081220
A. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (SIX)
B. 08/1131Z (74)
C. 22.2N/6
D. 58.0W/3
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS -08/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FT
BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.3 (IRREGULAR CDO)

CRUZ/WEAVER

Air Force Sat Estimates.

jusforsean · #138 Postby **jusforsean** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:41 am

So we are wanting the n turn to start to occour by 60 correct? otherwise ?

kenl01 · #139 Postby **kenl01** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:41 am

Yep, this season has been one of the weakest I can ever remember in a long time. Sort of reminds me of 1982, and even then we had Hurricane Debby just about now as a cat 2 in 1982 getting close to Bermuda (as I can recall). If nothing changes during the next 5 to 10 days, then I doubt we'll get passed 10 storms this year.
But this break is very appreciated this year for the US.

#140 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:41 am

cycloneye wrote:TPNT KGWC 081220
A. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (SIX)
B. 08/1131Z (74)
C. 22.2N/6
D. 58.0W/3
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS -08/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FT
BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.3 (IRREGULAR CDO)

CRUZ/WEAVER

Air Force Sat Estimates.

That position is exposed, southeast of the convection. It could be there. If so, it's very poorly-organized.

TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

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