Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

[lester]

here we go folks

Joyce, is that you? lol

[gatorcane]

here we go folks

Joyce, is that you? lol

No it isn't

[dixiebreeze]

I requested that an IR Floater be forcused on Invest 90L. Hope they do it soon.

[gatorcane]

I want to point out that there is no reason why this invest will not stay on a W to WNW track. While there is a big weakness over the SE CONUS for the next 60 hours, check out the ridge that builds in behind the MEGA CONUS trough and could steer this invest into the vicinity of the GOM, Cuba or FL straits by days 5-7:

I think that is why some of the shallow BAMS show a NW track to WNW track then a W track as the ridge builds in. If this invest deepened quick enough it could track NW and the recurve SE of the Bahamas but if it stays shallow off through the Caribbean it should go where greatest chance of it developing would be in the Western Caribbean or NW Caribbean.

Weakness through 60 hours:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=060hr

Ridge Builds into SE Conus and Western Atlantic starting at 60 hours and continues to build through 144 hours:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

[AnnularCane]

here we go folks

Joyce, is that you? lol

No it isn't

Give Joyce a chance to answer.

[Blown Away]

It's October, hurricanes start to take unusual tracks. I'm not getting to hyped over 90L it will have to contend with upper level winds and if it moves towards the CONUS looks like a track near/over Hispaniola then Cuba, I doubt much will be left. We might get a weak TD or Storm for a brief period then it will get torn apart.

[gatorcane]

It's October, hurricanes start to take unusual tracks. I'm not getting to hyped over 90L it will have to contend with upper level winds and if it moves towards the CONUS looks like a track near/over Hispaniola then Cuba, I doubt much will be left. We might get a weak TD or Storm for a brief period then it will get torn apart.

I hope you are right, but you never know - most people have checked out for the season - it would be mayhem if suddenly something significant threatens the CONUS. a BIG surprise.

[lester]

It's October, hurricanes start to take unusual tracks. I'm not getting to hyped over 90L it will have to contend with upper level winds and if it moves towards the CONUS looks like a track near/over Hispaniola then Cuba, I doubt much will be left. We might get a weak TD or Storm for a brief period then it will get torn apart.

I hope you are right, but you never know - most people have checked out for the season - it would be mayhem if suddenly something significant threatens the CONUS. a BIG surprise.

What does CONUS stand for?

[Blown Away]

Looking at the visible, it appears a weak LLC is moving past 60W but all the convection is being left behind at 60W due to our upper level wind friend.

[brunota2003]

What does CONUS stand for?

Continential US (the lower 48)

[WeatherEmperor]

is it just me or did the NHC not run the 18Z models?

<RICKY>

[fci]

here we go folks

Where are we going?

[fci]

here we go folks

Joyce, is that you? lol

No it isn't

Give Joyce a chance to answer.

It might be "Chicken Little"
(reference to "the sky is falling, the sky is falling"

[Weatherfreak000]

Development appears to be somewhat unlikely, there is good bit of shear ahead of it and alot of dry air.


I'd give this thing a 5% chance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg


You can see the dry air it's about to suck in here.

[dixiebreeze]

About the same advisory at 5:30 p.m.:

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on October 11, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A weak low pressure area...associated with a tropical wave near
the Lesser Antilles...is producing disorganized areas of showers
and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move west-northwestward
across the windward and Leeward Islands into the eastern Caribbean
Sea during the next day or two. Although environmental conditions
do not favor significant development...this system will likely
produce some locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds over
portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Thursday.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.
$$
Forecaster Rhome/Pasch

[Brent]

here we go folks

Where are we going?

I don't know.

I'm scared.

[GeneratorPower]

What does CONUS stand for?

Continential US (the lower 48)

<BUZZER> Wrong. CONUS stands for Contiguous United States. That is, states that all touch each other (48 states). However, Alaska is part of the Continental United States because it is on the continent of North America.

[gatorcane]

here we go folks

Where are we going?

I don't know.

I'm scared.

Ask Joyce

Pardon me mods, just want to throw in some humor as the board isn't very packed at the moment.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks let's get back to the theme of this thread which is 90L and not continue with that emoctions theme.

[gatorcane]

Ok folks let's get back to the theme of this thread which is 90L and not continue with that emoctions theme.

Hey Luis, I agree we should get back on theme, however, these emoticons help make storm2k also!

Hopefully you fare out okay with 90L passing through over the next couple of days