Still Watching Yucutan

[Cyclone1]

I forgot about ol' 93. If this blob is still present when (if) ex-93 gets there, that would be interesting to watch...

[HouTXmetro]

Question: Y'all don't think that this weather in the NW Carribean is going to be pulled around that ULL in lower Bay of Campeche. In another words sent across the Yucatan into the West Central Gulf just north of the NW tip of the Yucatan. I don't read models, some of you are saying this weather will pull north toward Fl?? I would think it would then have to go across the Bahamas because of the big air mass which has settled down over Fl (blocking anything from the NW Carribean). Seems like the best course for the weather in the NW Carrribean is toward the N Coast of the Yucatan and then out into the West Central Gulf (just NW of Yucatan).

check out the latest WV loop. That ULL has stopped it's Westward progression and has slightly started to back east.

[Cyclone1]

Actually, it looks like that ULL is dissipating.

[TheRingo]

sure does. looks like it's being pulled east.

WV

[Cyclone1]

Maybe by our Caribbean feature?

[TheRingo]

I think the jet that hooked down around florida is taking it out.

[Cyclone1]

Oh, yeah. Looks like it.

[ronjon]

Pressures low and falling at buoy 42056. It is also low at buoy 42057. Looks like low pressure is forming under that blob of heavy convection this morning. There is a CC spin on the IR SAT. Won't get a good look until VIS SAT available. Shear is still fairly high but is forecast to relax the next 2-3 days as the large trough along the east coast pulls away into the Atlantic.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

[HeeBGBz]

That's a nice little meatball out there this am.

[Patrick99]

If that area keeps firing thunderstorms day in and day out, eventually something's gonna pop.

[caneman]

Nice blow up occurring. Don't know how to post the image so here is the link.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Will this feature get pulled out NE or get left behind?

[tgenius]

I was listening to David Bernard from WFOR Weather in Miami, he feels that Miami is in for another day of severe storms like we've had the last 2 days today, then tomorrow it will be clearing up, however there is a lot of moisture heading towards FL from Cuba, which from the looks of it, might just be that blob right now?

[TheRingo]

looks pretty much like any movement will be slow to the ne.

[wxman57]

I was listening to David Bernard from WFOR Weather in Miami, he feels that Miami is in for another day of severe storms like we've had the last 2 days today, then tomorrow it will be clearing up, however there is a lot of moisture heading towards FL from Cuba, which from the looks of it, might just be that blob right now?

That's what the GFS has been predicting since the end of May - thunderstorms increasing in the NW Caribbean around now then tracking NE across the southern FL peninsula. But it doesn't look like more than just passing thunderstorms. No TS this time.

[ronjon]

Look for the ULL over Oklahoma to drop south into NE Texas and actually provide the steering for this mass of weather. The Atlantic ridge will outside build in east of FL and these two players will actually guide this mass of convection to the north and northeast. The unusually deep trough along the Atlantic coast will lift NE by Saturday. Not sure if it will form anything tropical but if the shear relaxes and with the waters warm, you never know.

[TheRingo]

hmm.. yeah that's what the latest cmc is indicating more north.

[windstorm99]

I was listening to David Bernard from WFOR Weather in Miami, he feels that Miami is in for another day of severe storms like we've had the last 2 days today, then tomorrow it will be clearing up, however there is a lot of moisture heading towards FL from Cuba, which from the looks of it, might just be that blob right now?

Look for rainy afternoon's across south florida atleast threw sunday.Things should improve early next week.Adrian

[deltadog03]

There should not be anything with this mass down there, but some thunderstorms...which btw is VERY welcomed down in florida. WXMAN...What do you think about this? I am more concerend with TROF splits, if they continue into the summer, they could pose a very hazardous cane season. I mean the biggest thing that should do is lower pressures in the gom and provide some ventilation for the NW carribbean?

[NDG]

I believe that a broad area of low pressure at the surface has formed right near or off the coast of northern Belize, actually it formed last evening a bit southwest just inland over Belize and during the night it has moved just offshore. I watched it on vis sat last night before it turned dark and by surface observations in the area.
Now, the ULL on the NW Tip of the Yucatan is still creating a problem, but if the GFS is correct in that the ULL will start dying out tonight and the trough over FL will start pushing north, tomorrow there could be a little better upper level conditions. We shall see.
Surface pressures have continued to lower little by little, hmm.

[HURAKAN]

It seems the NHC now anticipates the formation of a LPS in the Gulf of Honduras.