Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[wxman57]

This system is clearly sheared. I said this yesterday regarding calling this a TD, but the same applies to shear. Saying there is no shear is the same that Basso only "attempted to blood dope"

Time to spend my day looking at vortex Rossby Waves in Katrina and Rita. Nothing to see with this feature

Definitely, Derek, shear is present. It doesn't matter what the shear maps show. The models frequently don't have a very good idea what the winds are doing across the tropics in the upper levels. Garbage in - garbage out. A badly-initialized shear map is not a "fact", by the way.

I'll be heading home shortly. Nothing to see here. But with an all day rain event across Houston, there's not much to do at home but hang up a light fixture in the bathroom for my wife. Let's see, stay here and watch the naked swirl or go home and perform "honey-dos". Hmmm.

[NDG]

I don't think that the problem is so much the shear, is really the subsidence in the area, a small system like this will have the hardest time fighting it, the only way it can survive will actually be if it stays close to the ITCZ, which at same time will cap it from further developing but at the same time will keep it somewhat shielded from the more stable air to its north. I really don't see much strengthening, maybe to a weak TD which might had been already, until it gets closer to the islands.

[miamicanes177]

Definitely, Derek, shear is present. It doesn't matter what the shear maps show. The models frequently don't have a very good idea what the winds are doing across the tropics in the upper levels. Garbage in - garbage out. A badly-initialized shear map is not a "fact", by the way.

Very interesting. That CIMSS shear map is on your page which you call, "the best hurricane links that I've found over the years". I'll have to ask some professionals and get back with you on its accuracy.

[cpdaman]

miamicanes excuse me if i am wrong

but do you understand what relative shear means

i.e yesterday the low was moving west at 15 mph shear 15-20 mph was moving in generally the same direction of the storm = low relative shear

today the low is moving w/wnw at 15 mph the shear is 10 mph but from a SW to NE direction = much more relative shear (right into this things face) also i believe the shear today is mid level and upper level with the mid level shear being 10-15 right in the spot the low has recently moved into

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html clearly moved from an area with easterly shear to SW shear in last 12 hours

[storms in NC]

This system is clearly sheared. I said this yesterday regarding calling this a TD, but the same applies to shear. Saying there is no shear is the same that Basso only "attempted to blood dope"

Time to spend my day looking at vortex Rossby Waves in Katrina and Rita. Nothing to see with this feature

Definitely, Derek, shear is present. It doesn't matter what the shear maps show. The models frequently don't have a very good idea what the winds are doing across the tropics in the upper levels. Garbage in - garbage out. A badly-initialized shear map is not a "fact", by the way.

I'll be heading home shortly. Nothing to see here. But with an all day rain event across Houston, there's not much to do at home but hang up a light fixture in the bathroom for my wife. Let's see, stay here and watch the naked swirl or go home and perform "honey-dos". Hmmm.

If it was my DH he would stay and watch the naked swirl to get out of the honey do list LOL

Deb

[cpdaman]

Relative shear is the cause for the weakening and the confusion as to why it is NOT in a "lower shear enviornment today compared to yesterday" even though the maps show higher shear accurately


however the mid level shear should be with it for awhile

[Aric Dunn]

anyway.. just some more watching an waiting... but it was fun while it lasted... now we have reverted back to 36 hours ago.... lol
i cant say it wont come back. because its always possible..
just have to wait till something happens

[miamicanes177]

And by the way the CIMSS shear map is used by Dr. Masters. Today he used it in his blog and said shear was 10kts. If it's good enough for someone with a PhD. then it's good enough for me!

[wxman57]

I think it's a combination of dry air sinking southward across the system and a bit of shear. In any case, it's looking worse by the minute. Convection is now moving south of 10N with the center well to the north. One more McIDAS image.

[Stormsfury]

This system is clearly sheared. I said this yesterday regarding calling this a TD, but the same applies to shear. Saying there is no shear is the same that Basso only "attempted to blood dope"

Time to spend my day looking at vortex Rossby Waves in Katrina and Rita. Nothing to see with this feature

Definitely, Derek, shear is present. It doesn't matter what the shear maps show. The models frequently don't have a very good idea what the winds are doing across the tropics in the upper levels. Garbage in - garbage out. A badly-initialized shear map is not a "fact", by the way.

I'll be heading home shortly. Nothing to see here. But with an all day rain event across Houston, there's not much to do at home but hang up a light fixture in the bathroom for my wife. Let's see, stay here and watch the naked swirl or go home and perform "honey-dos". Hmmm.

Hey, wxman57 ... hope it dries out in TX real soon ... I couldn't believe looking at climatic data and saw despite Houston recording 16 days of measurable rain, "officially" in June, only 3.07" fell there ...

Code: Select all

HERE IS THE MONTHLY CLIMATE DATA FOR SEVERAL SITES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS:


SITE    AVG     AVG     AVG
        HIGH    LOW     DAILY   DEP     RAIN     DEP

IAH     90.9    74.0    82.4    +1.1    3.07     -2.28
GLS     87.3    77.4    82.3    +0.1    3.37     -0.67
CLL     89.9    73.1    81.5    -0.1    5.00     +1.21
HOU     89.7    75.1    82.4    +0.1    5.58     -1.26
CXO     89.9    70.9    80.4    -0.4    2.44     -2.14
UTS     90.6    73.8    82.2    +1.6    4.73     +0.07
PSX     89.2    77.3    83.2    +2.1    4.14     -0.17
LBX     88.8    73.3    81.1    +0.2    3.17     -1.59
SGR     90.5    73.8    82.2    +0.5    4.02     -1.02
LVJ#    88.8    74.3    81.6    +0.2    7.43     -0.02
DWH#    89.9    73.0    81.4    +0.8    7.16     -0.10
HGX#    88.1    74.0    81.1    +0.8    5.03     -2.33

# NORMALS/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL LESS THAN 30 YEARS


Sorry to get offtopic a bit...

SF

[Aric Dunn]

I think it's a combination of dry air sinking southward across the system and a bit of shear. In any case, it's looking worse by the minute. Convection is now moving south of 10N with the center well to the north. One more McIDAS image.

well its a clearly defined center... lol hmmmm.. thats about it...

[skysummit]

Maybe it's time to shift attention to east Gulf possibilities while 96L is taking a break.

[wxman57]

And by the way the CIMSS shear map is used by Dr. Masters. Today he used it in his blog and said shear was 10kts. If it's good enough for someone with a PhD. then it's good enough for me!

A PHd after your name doesn't make you immune to mistakes. As I've always told my team "trust, but verify" (shear maps). I like to look at the upper level wind projections and wind shear projections very closely for the 00hr (initial) time period. In many cases, the GFS has been off nearly 180 degrees with the wind direction across the tropics (as verified by WV satellite and an occasional RAOB). There is very little reliable upper air data across most of the tropics. Satellites can help, but you're never really sure what initialization data go into the models, so you can't blindly trust them.

[NDG]

Maybe it's time to shift attention to east Gulf possibilities while 96L is taking a break.

Not a bad idea,

[wxman57]

well its a clearly defined center... lol hmmmm.. thats about it...

And, on that, I'd agree. I guess I'll go play in the rain.

[Aric Dunn]

And by the way the CIMSS shear map is used by Dr. Masters. Today he used it in his blog and said shear was 10kts. If it's good enough for someone with a PhD. then it's good enough for me!

A PHd after your name doesn't make you immune to mistakes. As I've always told my team "trust, but verify" (shear maps). I like to look at the upper level wind projections and wind shear projections very closely for the 00hr (initial) time period. In many cases, the GFS has been off nearly 180 degrees with the wind direction across the tropics (as verified by WV satellite and an occasional RAOB). There is very little reliable upper air data across most of the tropics. Satellites can help, but you're never really sure what initialization data go into the models, so you can't blindly trust them.

i agreed.. i said something like at some point .. in the middle of the night last night.......hmmm.. its all a blurr!!!! aaaaahhhh

i think i was dreaming about bad data last night actually lol

[Aric Dunn]

well its a clearly defined center... lol hmmmm.. thats about it...

And, on that, I'd agree. I guess I'll go play in the rain.

speaking of .. rain i have had nearly 4 inches over night and its still rainning

[cycloneye]

Those who wanted this to develop,dont be dissapointed because there will be plenty to track as the peak of the season draws closer and we are only on early July.

[Aric Dunn]

its so happy looking !!! and its sunny :

[Stormsfury]

Let's clear something up about my post earlier about RELATIVE SHEAR ...

Like stated before ... if you have a system embedded in deep easterlies which is driving it towards the WEST @ 25 kts that is embedded into an environment of deep easterlies that is also moving WEST @ 25 kts, you have a net result of ZERO (or ZERO RELATIVE SHEAR)...

NOW... let's go into a different situation ... let's say, you have a system moving towards the WEST at 14 kts, BUT you have light westerly flow aloft ... and the environment aloft is moving EAST at 10 KTS ... this yields a RELATIVE SHEAR value of 24 kts...

Hope this helps a little ..

SF