Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[Stormcenter]

The thing that stands out to me is they are scheduling 6 hourly fixes into this system. This indicates that they are taking development pretty seriously.

The good news is that the oceanic heat content in the area is relatively low (compared to other places in the Gulf)...so if it does sit and spin it won't have an unlimited source of energy.

http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/da ... t.zoom.gif

MW

Mike do you have any ideas where you think it's headed if it does in fact develop? Thanks.

[SouthFloridawx]

This will be 90L by the end of the day.

[dixiebreeze]

Plot map for 90L Invest in GOM:

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

[Cyclone1]

I just watched the wimpiest Tropical Update in TWC history. No mention of the Gulf whatsoever. Hardly mentioned 99L.

[Stormcenter]

Here is a good Satellite loop to keep an eye on for the GOM area.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[jasons2k]

Folks, yes it has a chance to develop but don't assume the 6-hour fixes, etc., indicate the NHC expects it to explode or something. For now, it has to do with its close proximity to the coast and possible effects on the oil platforms (if it moves W or NW). They won't have much time to prepare if something does form and head that way.

[canegrl04]

I just watched the wimpiest Tropical Update in TWC history. No mention of the Gulf whatsoever. Hardly mentioned 99L.

I saw one the last hour.I don't know his name,but it's the African American guy.All he really talked about in the Atl. was Chantal.Give me a break. They are definitely not a source to go to for information

[Cyclone1]

I just watched the wimpiest Tropical Update in TWC history. No mention of the Gulf whatsoever. Hardly mentioned 99L.

I saw one the last hour.I don't know his name,but it's the African American guy.All he really talked about in the Atl. was Chantal.Give me a break. They are definitely not a source to go to for information

Kevin Robinson, I believe. Only Cantore and Lyons to any decent ones.

[ronjon]

Here is a good Satellite loop to keep an eye on for the GOM area.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

Yeah, SC I see a broad rotation south of Panama City and due west of Tampa. There has really been a convective explosion in the eastern GOM this morning. Water temps running about 85 deg from the buoy obs.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20070801&endTime=-1&duration=5

[jasons2k]

Question - why do they mention recon for 99L in the TWO but not for this system?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just watched the wimpiest Tropical Update in TWC history. No mention of the Gulf whatsoever. Hardly mentioned 99L.

I saw one the last hour.I don't know his name,but it's the African American guy.All he really talked about in the Atl. was Chantal.Give me a break. They are definitely not a source to go to for information

yeah he didn't even mention the recon for 99L and then went on to say "nothing is imminent" in that area (something he doesn't really know for sure).

[Ed Mahmoud]

Gulf SSTs from Satellite estimates

[Kennethb]

I saw and update on TWC this morning too. More discussion about an impactless Chantel and wave nearing the Windward.

The GOM is where the action will be. I am not sure why they have that dude doing the tropical weather update.

While this system will likely stay rather benign, this will be the first bonfide tropical system since 2005.

Early August storm mean steering currents will be light and movement might be slow.

I just watched the wimpiest Tropical Update in TWC history. No mention of the Gulf whatsoever. Hardly mentioned 99L.

[canegrl04]

Looks like anything that approaches the west coast of Florida is going to explode to a major cane

[chadtm80]

For those in Central Florida and get WFTV chan 9 news turn it on. Said they are going to talk about GOM development coming up

[Brent]

I just hope it doesn't sit out there too long...

[jasons2k]

Looks like anything that approaches the west coast of Florida is going to explode to a major cane

Please don't make such a proclamation unless you have some solid data to back it up. One cannot make that assumption simply based on a SST map. If that were true, the whole basin south of 35N would be in major trouble.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

New GFS bring it in east of N.O.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[Stormcenter]

I initially thought this morning the area of interest was south of the mouth of the MS. but now it looks like the suspect area is south of Mobile Bay. If you click on the loop below and speed it up a little you can see what looks like a definite spin. It may be nothing but I thought it looked interesting.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Bluefrog]

great .. just great ... east of New Orleans ..... geez. We don't need no stinkin' tropical systems here in Mississippi