Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[skysummit]

I don't want to burst anyone's bubble, but 99L is struggling this morning. Convection has taken a very disorganized look and it seems the system is being affected by southerly mid-level shear, which has disrupted its inflow. Of course, we have the dry air surrounding it at this time and yes... we have a very ill system. If this system is going to develop, it will not be today.

No one's bubble is bursting. These are normal stages in early development. Convection will likely continue to decline today (like I mentioned last night), and then will likely increase tonight. Pulse, pulse, pulse....

[HURAKAN]

I don't want to burst anyone's bubble, but 99L is struggling this morning. Convection has taken a very disorganized look and it seems the system is being affected by southerly mid-level shear, which has disrupted its inflow. Of course, we have the dry air surrounding it at this time and yes... we have a very ill system. If this system is going to develop, it will not be today.

We most relax and give it time. Yesterday we were talking about persistence as the key, it has persisted and according to the 805 TWD, a LLC has developed. The environment is not entirely favorable and in a disturbance you would expect convection to wave and then refire. Wait a few more hours and you will get your convection back.

[HURAKAN]

I don't want to burst anyone's bubble, but 99L is struggling this morning. Convection has taken a very disorganized look and it seems the system is being affected by southerly mid-level shear, which has disrupted its inflow. Of course, we have the dry air surrounding it at this time and yes... we have a very ill system. If this system is going to develop, it will not be today.

No one's bubble is bursting. These are normal stages in early development. Convection will likely continue to decline today (like I mentioned last night), and then will likely increase tonight. Pulse, pulse, pulse....

What is important is that in every pulse of convection the system should use it to evolve, and we have seen that with 99L. Don't expect TD today, maybe tomorrow.

[Ivanhater]

I don't want to burst anyone's bubble, but 99L is struggling this morning. Convection has taken a very disorganized look and it seems the system is being affected by southerly mid-level shear, which has disrupted its inflow. Of course, we have the dry air surrounding it at this time and yes... we have a very ill system. If this system is going to develop, it will not be today.

No one's bubble is bursting. These are normal stages in early development. Convection will likely continue to decline today (like I mentioned last night), and then will likely increase tonight. Pulse, pulse, pulse....

yep...I said yesterday that people would write this off when convection decreases again..but it has a great structure with inflow to maintain itself until it is ready to really develop

[punkyg]

I don't want to burst anyone's bubble, but 99L is struggling this morning. Convection has taken a very disorganized look and it seems the system is being affected by southerly mid-level shear, which has disrupted its inflow. Of course, we have the dry air surrounding it at this time and yes... we have a very ill system. If this system is going to develop, it will not be today.

We most relax and give it time. Yesterday we were talking about persistence as the key, it has persisted and according to the 805 TWD, a LLC has developed. The environment is not entirely favorable and in a disturbance you would expect convection to wave and then refire. Wait a few more hours and you will get your convection back.

You mean 7 to 10 hours and man thats a long time.

[HURAKAN]

I don't want to burst anyone's bubble, but 99L is struggling this morning. Convection has taken a very disorganized look and it seems the system is being affected by southerly mid-level shear, which has disrupted its inflow. Of course, we have the dry air surrounding it at this time and yes... we have a very ill system. If this system is going to develop, it will not be today.

We most relax and give it time. Yesterday we were talking about persistence as the key, it has persisted and according to the 805 TWD, a LLC has developed. The environment is not entirely favorable and in a disturbance you would expect convection to wave and then refire. Wait a few more hours and you will get your convection back.

You mean 7 to 10 hours and man thats a long time.

Definition of "few:" an indefinite but relatively small number

7 to 10 hours will be a few!!!

[Hyperstorm]

This is not just a normal phase of "off and on" convection. I will not be surprised at all if the system is opening back up to a "wave", if it ever had a defined LLC. If you look at these types of systems frequently, you'll notice that the system is struggling (as in a "not normal" manner) at this time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The system currently is under low upper and mid level shear...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

..So obviously that isn't the issue.

The thing that must be getting to it is the dry air. However, when that happened last night it came back strong, so I think the same will probably happen this time too. Seems like a normal stage of development in these type of conditions.

[Berwick Bay]

We are very privileged to witness the birthing process of these storms. Its messy and also poorly understood. On one level it looks like its just not happening. The storms almost always look better upon first developing that mid-level circulation (the first signs of a low pressure forming). But then comes the hard work (labor if you will) of bringing that circulation down, down to the surface. While this is happening pulsing occurs in thunderstorm development (labor pains coming intermittently) then it slacks off and looks relatively benign like nothing is going on. But the pulsing gets closer together until finally it reaches some sort of critical point (water breaks) where a definite low level circulation has been established. Once birth has occured, each storm is revealed as a totally different creature (environment or heredity?). Most would say environment, as the storm is assuredly affected by surrounding conditons. But there is a heredity factor which I think is not well understood. Meaning that there is something "substantial" within the storm itself which distinguishes it from other storms which might come into contact with the same environment. Ex. Katrina --Regardless of hostile conditions across the Atlantic, it "refused to die". Seemed as though the "life force" within that system was stronger, different than most other storms (heredity?). Anyway the birth of one is a beautiful thing to behold.

[boca]

Once 99L is born into a depression slap its behind and make sure it cries.

[dwg71]

it doesnt look good now, lets see how it does over the next day or so. I still give it only a small chance of getting a name.

[Weatherfreak14]

Ahh, it looks like its going through a replacment cycle...not really... but i think this could go both ways, it could build back or it could go poof... but IMO i think it will build back, it is only teasing us right now.

[boca]

Not bad 57 pages on 99L which may still turn into a depression but looking less likely, and more of a tropical wave might be in its future.

[HURAKAN]

Development is slow, and by the way it's looking right now, it could take a few more hours to see anything decent.

[Air Force Met]

it doesnt look good now, lets see how it does over the next day or so. I still give it only a small chance of getting a name.

I'm about to go on 2 weeks of leave. I personally am going to put a hex on it and hope it fizzles into nothingness. It's all fun to track for a lot of people here...but a lot of us get our vacations canceled for storms that threaten the mainland (even when it isn't close to our homes)...and since I am going to Oregon...and have had the trip planned for almost a year...I want a fizzle.

[skysummit]

You know what I find funny? There is a small group of posters who only seem to post when convection has decreased. Where were you guys last night when it was blossoming? Where will you be tonight when the same happens again?

[Weatherfreak14]

Everyone look at this..... The WV loop shows now some pretty mooist air moving out infront of 99L, possibly setting up a better enviorment out ahead of hit. so, this most likely is only a stage, what 99L is going through right now.

[Hyperstorm]

Understand that I'm not saying that the system won't develop at all during its lifetime. It justs doesn't seem like it is imminent or likely.

Look at the structure of the system (NOT the convection), and you'll see an ill (box-like) structure. There is definitely something that is coming off of South America...I call it mid-level shear. That is very common in the region and is usually associated with the outflows of the thunderstorms that develop over land and travel northward. That's likely one of the reasons why systems do fail to develop a good center of circulation when in close contact to the South-American continent. Another factor that tells me any development is in "status quo" at this time, is the lack of convection during what is supposed to be the time when convection is supposed to be continually expanding. Remember, that we usually see a decline of convection during the afternoon and early evening and NOT during the morning hours. Of course, that would happen when there is a good structure with the system...which brings me back to my original point.

It would not be surprising to see it persist (as a wave) until it reaches the central and western Caribbean, where its potential for development could skyrocket depending on environmental conditions.

In any case, it will likely bring some very squally weather to the islands over the next 3 days...

[HURAKAN]

Not bad 57 pages on 99L which may still turn into a depression but looking less likely, and more of a tropical wave might be in its future.

That's about average for the Atlantic, don't you think!!!!

[tailgater]

TD by this time tomorrow or nothing for a while, as it plods through dead zone. IMHO it will start to refire some shortly and not wait for 7 hrs.