99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[RL3AO]

You'll see : once in the Pacific, it will develop into a major hurricane ...

I'm not sure if your cousin will allow such a thing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This lovingly (via NASA satellite page) made false color IR loopshows 99L showing an impressive mid-level spin, and the phantom wave looking a little healthier in the BOC.


I see the center of whatever the MLC is around 15º, so I'm not sure models initialized perfectly.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I won't ask again, but is there such thing as the "Land Grip" effect?

Per Joe Bastardi, frictional slowing on one side of the circulation, when a system is nearly paralleling a coastline, will cause a temporary alteration to the track of a storm. He believes Charley moved inland further South than originally forecast, and Isidore's prolonged stay on the Yucatan, were partly attributed to that.

[whereverwx]

It's looking very interesting. The western thunderstorm complex catches my eye.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like it's about to crash... pull up!!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like it's about to crash... pull up!!!!

LOL, that's a good one, you actually made me laugh.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html

[mgpetre]

I won't ask again, but is there such thing as the "Land Grip" effect?

Per Joe Bastardi, frictional slowing on one side of the circulation, when a system is nearly paralleling a coastline, will cause a temporary alteration to the track of a storm. He believes Charley moved inland further South than originally forecast, and Isidore's prolonged stay on the Yucatan, were partly attributed to that.

Thank you for that answer, I kinda figured it was just a part of my intuition that might not really be real considering the complexity (from a 3D perspective) that is not shown in all of the satellite pics we study for so long. Still probably not one of the main factors for a storm like this I guess though. I am probably just wishing we could watch it develop a little longer. Any answer about why the storms to it's west were all heading in a WNW direction?

[HouTXmetro]

Any possibility thephantom wave in the BOC could create a slight weakness allowing for a more northerly track?

[HouTXmetro]

Speaking of land interaction, what was the name of the Hurricane a few years back that amazingly danced around Jamaica?

[wxman57]

New models are being run. They take it inland in 12 hours to a death over the mountains of Central America then southern Mexico:

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0319 UTC SAT AUG 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070804 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070804 0000 070804 1200 070805 0000 070805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 80.3W 14.5N 83.7W 14.9N 87.2W 15.4N 90.6W
BAMD 14.2N 80.3W 14.9N 83.4W 15.5N 86.6W 16.0N 90.0W
BAMM 14.2N 80.3W 14.7N 84.0W 15.0N 87.4W 15.1N 91.0W
LBAR 14.2N 80.3W 15.0N 85.0W 16.1N 89.6W 17.3N 93.8W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070806 0000 070807 0000 070808 0000 070809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 93.6W 16.5N 98.8W 17.5N 102.6W 18.7N 106.0W
BAMD 16.5N 93.4W 17.1N 99.4W 17.4N 104.2W 17.5N 108.4W
BAMM 15.3N 94.2W 15.1N 100.1W 15.0N 104.8W 14.9N 108.8W
LBAR 18.8N 97.5W 21.7N 102.0W 23.3N 104.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 68KTS 79KTS 86KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 27KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 74.7W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 27KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 69.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[JonathanBelles]

Its back on NRL!!

['CaneFreak]

Any possibility thephantom wave in the BOC could create a slight weakness allowing for a more northerly track?

nope phantom wave is headed westward too and will die a quick death soon

[Aric Dunn]

New models are being run. They take it inland in 12 hours to a death over the mountains of Central America then southern Mexico:

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0319 UTC SAT AUG 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070804 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070804 0000 070804 1200 070805 0000 070805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 80.3W 14.5N 83.7W 14.9N 87.2W 15.4N 90.6W
BAMD 14.2N 80.3W 14.9N 83.4W 15.5N 86.6W 16.0N 90.0W
BAMM 14.2N 80.3W 14.7N 84.0W 15.0N 87.4W 15.1N 91.0W
LBAR 14.2N 80.3W 15.0N 85.0W 16.1N 89.6W 17.3N 93.8W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070806 0000 070807 0000 070808 0000 070809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 93.6W 16.5N 98.8W 17.5N 102.6W 18.7N 106.0W
BAMD 16.5N 93.4W 17.1N 99.4W 17.4N 104.2W 17.5N 108.4W
BAMM 15.3N 94.2W 15.1N 100.1W 15.0N 104.8W 14.9N 108.8W
LBAR 18.8N 97.5W 21.7N 102.0W 23.3N 104.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 68KTS 79KTS 86KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 27KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 74.7W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 27KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 69.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

umm yeah

and.......

[AnnularCane]

Speaking of land interaction, what was the name of the Hurricane a few years back that amazingly danced around Jamaica?

I'm thinking Ivan, but now that I think of it, there were at least several of them that did that. I know Charley did it too.

[vaffie]

Based on the latest satellite imaging of surface windspeeds, this ball of fire 4 hours ago had 35-40 knot winds at the periphery--they can't image what's going on in the ball itself due to technical limitations.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &SIZE=full

[RL3AO]

Ivan dodged a little.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

[Recurve]

Question: Why is this moving almost due West while all of the storms preceding it are heading almost due North or NNW? Is it because more of it's energy is lower in the atmosphere? I'm just trying to understand this whole steering thing a little better. Thanks in advance.

Land convection outflow maybe? Unrelated to the wave convection. Different height than the prevailing trades moving 99L is my guess.

[Aric Dunn]

Ivan dodged a little.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

debbie is the best example i call it the tether ball effect




but yeah debbie got stuck on the mountains just sort of wrapped around like a tether ball

debbie was moving Wnw then all of a sudden w then wsw



so i guess anything is possible with 99l lol

[mgpetre]

Ivan dodged a little.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

debbie is the best example i call it the tether ball effect



but yeah debbie got stuck on the mountains just sort of wrapped around like a tether ball

debbie was moving Wnw then all of a sudden w then wsw



so i guess anything is possible with 99l lol

But it is a REAL thing, I just wanted to make sure it wasn't something like an optical illusion or mind trick.

BTW, I wouldn't be asking novice questions like this if this storm were any sort of real threat.