Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: INVEST 90L over East Atlantic: discussion and analysis

#121 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:19 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:This is going to get ugly for someone...Fingers crossed for the best scenario!


Pulling a Cleo-58?
0 likes   

User avatar
MusicCityMan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 483
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:57 pm
Location: Somewhere in Central Florida

#122 Postby MusicCityMan » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:19 pm

Looks very impressive.. Perhaps Td #4 by tomorrow?
0 likes   

User avatar
windstorm99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1578
Age: 47
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Miami, Florida
Contact:

Re: INVEST 90L over East Atlantic: discussion and analysis

#123 Postby windstorm99 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:20 pm

Image
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#124 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:20 pm

D-max is in its near future. With a large burst of convection, TD 4 is possible at 5am or 11am tomorrow. IMO.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6666
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re:

#125 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:21 pm

RL3AO wrote:We are now level orange on my scale.

Image

Actually, your missing one last one that comes after your last one, and that is:

"AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME". I have seen that one in the Epac last year. There is also one that is quite rare but goes like this:

"A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING" or "A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY HAVE FORMED". You will rarely see those ones, but I remember 1 or 2 systems getting that.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#126 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:21 pm

This is becoming obvious that this will become a TD within the next 48 hours. Looks like I will be a bit busy this coming week
0 likes   

User avatar
El Nino
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 454
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:18 pm
Location: Lima - Miraflores (Peru)
Contact:

Re: INVEST 90L over East Atlantic: discussion and analysis

#127 Postby El Nino » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:22 pm

-70° ? Really impressive for an invest at its beginning !
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Re:

#128 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:23 pm

Cyclenall wrote: Actually, your missing one last one that comes after your last one, and that is:

"AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME".


Your right. I'll merge blue/green and add in that one.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#129 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:23 pm

still waiting on the easterly shear to drop..
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: Re:

#130 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:24 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Cyclenall wrote: Actually, your missing one last one that comes after your last one, and that is:

"AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME".


Your right. I'll merge blue/green and add in that one.


That would be good for a purple.
0 likes   

User avatar
bvigal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2276
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
Location: British Virgin Islands
Contact:

Re: INVEST 90L over East Atlantic: discussion and analysis

#131 Postby bvigal » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:25 pm

comment on afternoon quickscat pass.... Holy Crap :eek:
per 13001 buoy, http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13001
It is 200 n.miles NW of 18z model fix, and by my converter 29.81 inches is 1009.48mb. Here's the record posted. (I used the 'code' method, sorry columns don't line up.)

Code: Select all

12 N 23 W                      
MM     DD      HHMM      WDIR     WSPD      PRES   ATMP   WTMP
      GMT      kts   in   °F   °F
8   11   1900   NNW   12    29.81    80.4   81.3
8   11   1600   N   11    29.83    80.2   81.3
8   11   1300   N   11    29.87    80.4   81.3
8   11   1000   N   9    29.88    80.2   81.1
8   11   900   N   10    29.87    80.4   81.1
8   11   800   N   13    29.84    80.4   81.3
8   11   400   N   12    29.84    79.7   81.3
8   11   300   N   13    29.85    79.9   81.3
8   11   200   N   13    29.88    79.9   81.3
8   11   100   N   14    29.90    80.1   81.5
8   10   2100   NNE   12    29.88    80.6   81.5
8   10   1900   NNE   13    29.84    81.0   81.5
8   10   1500   N   15    29.85    81.3   81.3
8   10   1300   NNE   13    29.89    81.3   81.3
8   10   1000   NNE   15    29.88    78.8   81.3
8   10   800   W   12    29.85    78.1   81.3
8   10   700   W   14    29.83    78.3   81.3
8   10   400   WSW   12    29.83    80.4   81.3
8   10   200   WSW   5    29.87    78.3   81.3
8   9   2100   WNW   8    29.90    77.2   81.5
8   9   2000   W   9    29.88    77.4   81.7
8   9   1900   WSW   11    29.87    80.4   81.7
8   9   1600   WSW   12    29.86    79.7   81.7
8   9   1500   WSW   12    29.88    80.8   81.5
8   9   1300   WSW   15    29.91    80.8   81.5

0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#132 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:29 pm

Updated: We are at yellow.

Image
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38087
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re:

#133 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:34 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:This is becoming obvious that this will become a TD within the next 48 hours. Looks like I will be a bit busy this coming week


:eek:

I agree.
0 likes   

chadtm80

#134 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:35 pm

0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Re:

#135 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:36 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:This is becoming obvious that this will become a TD within the next 48 hours. Looks like I will be a bit busy this coming week


When Derek says something like that, you know we could have a problem.
0 likes   

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3027
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re:

#136 Postby msbee » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:37 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:This is becoming obvious that this will become a TD within the next 48 hours. Looks like I will be a bit busy this coming week

Keep on top of this one for us, Derek!
Thanks!
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#137 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:38 pm

RL3AO: where did you get that scale?
0 likes   

User avatar
benny
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:09 am
Location: Miami

Re: INVEST 90L over East Atlantic: discussion and analysis

#138 Postby benny » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:38 pm

Microwave images look pretty good over the eastern Atlantic. There are some curved bands and the center appears to be east of the convection, around a little south of 12n and west of 20w or so (tough to tell exactly).

Image
Last edited by benny on Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
El Nino
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 454
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:18 pm
Location: Lima - Miraflores (Peru)
Contact:

Re: Re:

#139 Postby El Nino » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:38 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:This is becoming obvious that this will become a TD within the next 48 hours. Looks like I will be a bit busy this coming week


When Derek says something like that, you know we could have a problem.


I have a baaaaaaaaaaad feeling about this.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re:

#140 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:38 pm

fact789 wrote:RL3AO: where did you get that scale?


I made it.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: JaviT, LarryWx and 27 guests