Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[wxman57]

With all the hype around this system, it could actually shear apart due to the rapid forward speed expose the center and be another nothing. Not sure I am ready to say that, but it is an observation. It may never vert stack.
I see several have just said about the same thing while I was typing.

If that happens, then I will have officially lost all my trust in the weather forecasting models. Such a large consensus showing this storm moving west and becoming strong only to have it fall apart would probably be one the biggest failures in recent model history.

That's why I keep saying to those who are sure it's a "Gulf storm" or it's a "Florida storm" that the models only can project what's fed into them. If they are initialized with garbage, then they spit out garbage. Clearly, we don't have enough good upper air observations across the tropics. That's why it's pointless to read much into the wild swings in the GFS track from run to run. It's clueless as to what's happening around the system now, how can it project where it'll be in 10 days?

[ConvergenceZone]

With all the hype around this system, it could actually shear apart due to the rapid forward speed expose the center and be another nothing. Not sure I am ready to say that, but it is an observation. It may never vert stack.
I see several have just said about the same thing while I was typing.

If that happens, then I will have officially lost all my trust in the weather forecasting models. Such a large consensus showing this storm moving west and becoming strong only to have it fall apart would probably be one the biggest failures in recent model history.

I'm going to seriously re-evaluate my interest in the tropics. I am SICK of non-events, but this one has blown the others away in terms of promise and hype.

Amen Brent!!!

[chadtm80]

Image has now updated.. I thought it was every six hours, but was 7 hours apart from the last one.. anywho...

[storms in NC]

It is not to say this will not be a non-event. It can happen but not till it slows down. It can not get it's self together till then. But it still can happen down the road.

[Cyclone1]

90L, is fine. It will still form. Just because the LLC is exposed, doesn't negate the fact the conditions will improve ahead of it, and the fact that there is still a clearly visible, close LLC.

[ConvergenceZone]

What im more concerned about is the one coming off behind 90L

I think I'm entering into the "I'll believe it when I see it mode", until it actually develops into something worthwhile, it's not worth the time and frustration to watch....

[RL3AO]

You guys are killing me. The NHC likes the system, the pro mets are almost unanimously forecasting development, the models are almost unanimously forecasting development.

And most importantly, DIURNAL MINIMUM HAS JUST OCCURRED.

[Cyclone1]

You guys are killing me. The NHC likes the system, the pro mets are almost unanimously forecasting development, the models are almost unanimously forecasting development.

And most importantly, DIURNAL MINIMUM HAS JUST OCCURRED.

THANK YOU!!!!

[miamicanes177]

man guys this better develop because I'm sick and tired of all these storms showing so much promise and then doing nothing. I'm looking forward to tracking a major and it will be a huge letdown for me if it does like the Euro says and poofs.

[ConvergenceZone]

Thats right. Its just past D-min and people are starting to question development. Sounds familiar.

It is what it is, and we are this way because we've seen it happen too many times before under the same conditions..

[RL3AO]

man guys this better develop because I'm sick and tired of all these storms showing so much promise and then doing nothing. I'm looking forward to tracking a major and it will be a huge letdown for me if it does like the Euro says and poofs.

It wouldn't be a huge let down to most people living near the coast from Mexico to North Carolina if this goes poof.

[ekal]

That's why I keep saying to those who are sure it's a "Gulf storm" or it's a "Florida storm" that the models only can project what's fed into them. If they are initialized with garbage, then they spit out garbage. Clearly, we don't have enough good upper air observations across the tropics. That's why it's pointless to read much into the wild swings in the GFS track from run to run. It's clueless as to what's happening around the system now, how can it project where it'll be in 10 days?

I have a question. If some of the buoys were fitted with an automated system to release a radiosonde during good conditions, would that change the data quality issue at all? Granted, there probably isn't enough money available for a program like that...and perhaps an actual human is necessary to launch the balloon?

[wxmann_91]

After looking at the models more carefully, assuming the GFS output is not contaminated by the storm, winds at the low and mid levels look too strong for development of a major hurricane - anybody remember Helene (2000), Chantal and Iris (2001), among many, many others?

I'm not questioning development but rather development of a STRONG hurricane, which I will admit was what I was believing (quite naively, but have not been watching Atlantic hurricanes for 2 yrs now).

2000-2001 featured a strong Azores High displaced to the east of the classic Bermuda High position... not only did that enhance SAL's and associated LL easterly wind surges, but that meant a trough upstream protecting the U.S. East Coast.

That is the pattern we've been facing this year so far. The trough has weakened but the anomalously strong High remains.

[Brent]

man guys this better develop because I'm sick and tired of all these storms showing so much promise and then doing nothing. I'm looking forward to tracking a major and it will be a huge letdown for me if it does like the Euro says and poofs.

I completely agree. I am really over this nonsense. 99L was a HUGE disappointment but THIS has 100 times more hype than 99L.

I'm sick of disappointments, not one storm has been around long enough to be exciting this year.

I'm probably overreacting, it's only one model that loses it, but I'm just becoming skeptical because I've seen this far too much this year AND last.

[Blown Away]

With all the hype around this system, it could actually shear apart due to the rapid forward speed expose the center and be another nothing. Not sure I am ready to say that, but it is an observation. It may never vert stack.
I see several have just said about the same thing while I was typing.

If that happens, then I will have officially lost all my trust in the weather forecasting models. Such a large consensus showing this storm moving west and becoming strong only to have it fall apart would probably be one the biggest failures in recent model history.

If I calculated right, 90L is about 2100 miles from the Islands and at 20mph, 90L will be there in about 4.5 days, that's flying. Are the models starting show 90L moving to fast to develop?

[Derek Ortt]

Iris was nearly a category 5 hurricane

Dont include that with the list

Chantal and Helene were completely different setups with the LLC ahead of the convection, not lagging behind

[Hurricaneman]

What im more concerned about is the one coming off behind 90L

I think I'm entering into the "I'll believe it when I see it mode", until it actually develops into something worthwhile, it's not worth the time and frustration to watch....

I still think this will become a formidable hurricane but may take an extra day or so to get there, but not giving up on this yet

[Wx_Warrior]

Dear heavens you guys. How many of you on here that beg for storms to blow up have actually been thru 1 or 2?

Yes, they are interesting to follow but someone is going to be devastated by one. Quit pouting when 1 of 1000 models loses something. The same people that are posting on here "lookout...watch...go to the store..." are the same ones that are pouting.

Relax...This or something will form. If not, get into another field.

[Lowpressure]

You guys are killing me. The NHC likes the system, the pro mets are almost unanimously forecasting development, the models are almost unanimously forecasting development.

And most importantly, DIURNAL MINIMUM HAS JUST OCCURRED.

DMIN has nothing to do with a displaced LLC.

[ConvergenceZone]

man guys this better develop because I'm sick and tired of all these storms showing so much promise and then doing nothing. I'm looking forward to tracking a major and it will be a huge letdown for me if it does like the Euro says and poofs.

It wouldn't be a huge let down to most people living near the coast from Mexico to North Carolina if this goes poof.

RL3A0..We just want something to track, it doesn't mean the storm has to be devastating or hit populated areas...What you are seeing is a reflection from last year. I don't know how many times in 2006 waves looked like they would develop and the models would agree and everyone would post, "just wait, it will develop" then "poof" onto the next wave and then the same thing would happen with the next one and so on....So until it happens nobody is going to believe it's going to happen anymore if the system shows signs that it might be struggling.
So you can't blame us for thinking that way.