Depression to form in GOM??

[ROCK]

Looks like a lot of uncertainty in many of the forecasts. Maybe that's why the promets are staying away for now.

nah, they are all wrapped up in 99L soon to be Gabby......if a LLC does spin up that will be on it....

[Sanibel]

Could be blowing off or could be a minima in transition to formation.

[Zardoz]

For what it's worth, this is what AccuWeather has to say about it at the moment:

Elsewhere in the tropics we are monitoring a large area of thunderstorms in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Surface Pressure over the south central Gulf of Mexico has fallen slightly over the past 24 hours. If this trend continues we might have to consider the potential for tropical development in the central or southern Gulf of Mexico in a few days.

[Ptarmigan]

Something worth watching regardless of what happens. I would not be surprised if it does or does not become an Invest.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Doesn't look like anything anymore.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Relevant sections of HPC 0Z model discussion

SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED EASTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKER
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS.

POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED DEEPER AND SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS
PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
WHERE THE NAM HAS ONE EARLY ON...BUT ALLOWS IT TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
AND DISSIPATE. ITS SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...AND THERE IS BARELY ANY REFLECTION OF THE FEATURE IN
ITS SURFACE PATTERN. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS WEAK
REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM BOTH IN ITS SURFACE AND 500 HPA HEIGHT
FIELDS.

snip...


SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...
THE GFS IS CLOSEST TO THE TPC TRACK...THOUGH IT WASHES THE SYSTEM
OUT AROUND 60 HOURS. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE LACK OF BOGUSING
IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO THE TIMING OF ITS FIRST
ADVISORY...IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS DEPICT PER
THE TPC FORECAST AND ITS CURRENT CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE UPCOMING
06Z AND 12Z GUIDANCE SHOULD HAVE A MORE REALISTIC DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEMS DEPTH FROM MONDAY MORNING ONWARD. SEE THE LATEST
ADVISORIES AND FORECASTS FROM TPC CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.

POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS WEAKER THAN THE NAM SOLUTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS THE MOST NORTHERLY. IF IT
DOES BECOME A TROPICAL LOW...IT SHOULD BE DIRECTED MORE WEST THAN
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE RIDGING TO ITS NORTH. WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER
GFS-LED CAMP HERE.

ROTH

[Frank P]

looking at the IR loop sure hints of a weak rotation, or a rotation in its initial phase of development in the SE GOM, nw off the coast of Cuba... hard to tell but looks to be in the mid levels, could be a passing thing not sure but convection on the increase... might be something to watch.. so I'm calling for a "bear" watch for this area today..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

put the loop on fast and you can see the hints of rotation in the loop... if you look really hard

[caneman]

pressures are fairly low in that area, however, take a look at the WV loop and you will see the ULL that plaqued 99 is rolling West over this area. It is forecast to weaken but I would think would prevent development at least for a day or two,

[xironman]

I thought I saw the same thing off Cuba, about 24N, 86W on the shortwave IR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html.

[Zardoz]

I thought I saw the same thing off Cuba, about 24N, 86W on the shortwave IR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html.

Yeah, that could be interpreted as something to watch. Let's see what it does.

[ronjon]

Latest 06Z GFS develops some vorticity in the southern GOM near the CC turning and moves it generally N-NE into the western panhandle of FL by Tuesday where it develops a low that moves further north into AL. I agree with Frank P that this one bears watching. Upper level conditions don't look ideal for development but you never know. It is the peak of the season.

[dizzyfish]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2007

*snip

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS EITHER CENTRAL OR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS AXIS WILL
DRIFT TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THESE FEATURES. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HOWEVER
THEY DIVERGE...WITH ECMWF AND DGEX BRINGING A DIGGING TROUGH INTO
THE MIDWEST...PUSHING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE BAHAMAS.
THE GFS KEEPS THIS RIDGE ROUGHLY OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAKER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS AS BELIEVE GABRIELLE
WILL LEAVE A WEAKER TROUGH BEHIND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS OUT OF THE CONVECTION
IN THE GULF AND THEN RIDES ALONG THIS TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


snip*

[tailgater]

A 3.5 mb drop in the last 24hrs.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003
if it stays in the southern GOM it may have a chance of slow development.

[HollynLA]

A 3.5 mb drop in the last 24hrs.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003
if it stays in the southern GOM it may have a chance of slow development.

When will the shear let up in this area? Anytime I see convection building in the GOM in September, it's never a good sign.

[ronjon]

There is a circulation down in the SE GOM - can't tell at what level but with a pressure of 28.88 at the bouy west of it we might be looking at something organizing at the surface. This should be an investigation shortly. Upper level winds immediately over the circulation center are light but increase dramatically to the east and south.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE GULF THIS MORNING IS THE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE SE PORTION FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 80W-86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO JUST TO THE
W OF THIS AREA OVER THE MIDDLE GULF...S OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-90W.
CLOUD TOPS OVER THIS CONVECTION ARE BEING STRETCHED TO THE S
INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY STRONG UPPER NLY FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW JUST SW OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...AND RIDGING
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE TRIGGER FOR THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS SEEMS TO BE WEAK LOW TO MID
LEVEL TROUGHING. MOISTURE MAY HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASED IN THE
VICINITY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR W
CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...WEAK SFC RIDGING DOMINATES WHICH IS
PRODUCING MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS/LOW SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC
TROUGHING IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR AND N OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL.

[caneman]

Ronjon,

Really enjoy reading your posts. However, have to disagree on an invest. Take a look at WV loop and you'll see the ULL moving over top this area which will not only increase shear but dry air. Now it is suppose to weaken but you know how that goes as it that never seems to happen as quickly as they say. Anyone have a shear map to post? It sure looks to me like that ULL needs to weaken and /or move out more. It does seems to be moving fairly quickly West so who knows maybe by tomorrow.

[xironman]

If that area can move a bit to the west there seems to be less shear there http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html.

[ronjon]

I agree caneman that conditions aren't ideal and I see the ULL just east of FL moving west. Will it continue west or follow Gabby NW? There appears to be a weaker ULL just north of the circulation (24N-86W). Perhaps these factors are why the GFS doesn't develop it significantly. When I post the HDW-High vectors on the SSD SAT though, there is shear all around the circulation except right over the top of it. There might be a small window for development. I'm just thinking that if convection blossoms today with an obvious CC, that since it is so close to the US, they would likely initiate an investigation. I know JB is bullish on this one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[lrak]

the first visible satellite loop looks interesting. We just might have a little something in a few days, if only the shear would relax.

I see two areas 23n 87w and 25n 86w ?