Tropical Development in Area East of Bahamas?

[Normandy]

So far, nothing really has changed....same track, same strength at this point.

[PTrackerLA]

I have a bad feeling about this one, the GFS is consistently showing a system in the gulf with favorable conditions.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 84 Hours

Reaches Northern Cuban coast just east of Havana.

[Stormcenter]

I have a bad feeling about this one, the GFS is consistently showing a system in the gulf with favorable conditions.

I'm sorry but how can anyone worry about something that is not even there yet?

[Normandy]

I have a bad feeling about this one, the GFS is consistently showing a system in the gulf with favorable conditions.

I'm sorry but how can anyone worry about something that is not even there yet?
All you have to say is cold front.

And what does a cold front have to do with anything in regards to system intensity?

[Stormcenter]

I have a bad feeling about this one, the GFS is consistently showing a system in the gulf with favorable conditions.

I'm sorry but how can anyone worry about something that is not even there yet?
All you have to say is cold front.

And what does a cold front have to do with anything in regards to system intensity?

Unfavorable conditions.

[cycloneye]

Excuse me,can I continue to post the run?

00z GFS at 96 hours

Things get interesting intensitywise as low emerges in NW Caribbean.

[PTrackerLA]

I have a bad feeling about this one, the GFS is consistently showing a system in the gulf with favorable conditions.

I'm sorry but how can anyone worry about something that is not even there yet?
All you have to say is cold front.

COLD FRONT...would likely turn this system north and eventually NE before landfall, once it's in the gulf = a US hit. Never said I'm worried about this hitting Louisiana if your implying that.

[Normandy]

Stormcenter.....


That is FAR from the truth, sorry.

See Wilma.
See Charley.
See Opal.
See Katrina.
See Donna.

All were Cat3-4's while interacting with a coldfront.
2 bombed while interacting with a coldfront (Wilma, Charley).


While cold fronts CAN induce shear, one would be foolish to automatically equate cold front with bad conditions aloft. Notice that NONE of the models weaken this while in the gulf.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 108 hours

Emerges in SEGOM and more deeper.

[BigA]

While I dont claim to be an expert, storms right in front of cold fronts often intensify, and can intensify rapidly (they can also be sheared rapidly, it depends if the winds help outflow or induce shear) One example I remember reading about was Irene in 99 as it paralleled the Carolina coast.

[Stormcenter]

I have a bad feeling about this one, the GFS is consistently showing a system in the gulf with favorable conditions.

I'm sorry but how can anyone worry about something that is not even there yet?
All you have to say is cold front.

COLD FRONT...would likely turn this system north and eventually NE before landfall, once it's in the gulf = a US hit. Never said I'm worried about this hitting Louisiana if your implying that.

Actually I was concerned about the upper TX coast. I did not imply anything about LA. hit or whatever. The bottom line is we have nothing now but another phantom storm by the GFS.

[eaglegirl]

:uarrow: Excuse me,can I continue to post the run?

00z GFS at 96 hours

Things get interesting intensitywise as low emerges in NW Caribbean.

Yes, please do.

I have been staying up to watch it and greatly appreciate your efforts in posting the run.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 126 hours

1003 mbs.

After posting of run is over,you can talk all about this but posting quotes trends to lose the run information that the members want to see.

[MGC]

Yes, Wilma and Charley intensified while being affected by a front. However, the front didn't reach the hurricanes until well after landfall so no cool air was ingested by the hurricane before landfall. From the look at the early model runs this might be a Florida panhandle system. A hurricane landfalling along the NGOM in October is far different than one landfalling in SW Florida in October. Hilda and Opal are good examples of early October landfalling NGOM hurricanes. Both got quite intense in the mid GOM over the loop current but rapidly weakened as they moved off the loop current over cooler NGOM waters. Both also ingested cooler continental air which aided in the rapid weakening. This system if it comes to pass as the GFS suggests could become a quite intense hurricane over the souther GOM.......MGC

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 138 hours

1002 mbs.Is moving slowly.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 156 Hours

1001 mbs.

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting that the precip area takes up almost the entire GOM. This could become a very large system.

[Normandy]

This run has trended much further west....and I don't like this setup with this run...

[ROCK]

This run has trended much further west....and I don't like this setup with this run...

exactly..........