Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[jaxfladude]

Stick a fork in this "phantom storm" it is not going to happen....
50 pages and 982-ish posts all for naught....next....

I knew this yesterday.....

[Ptarmigan]

I heard on the local weather that this disturbance in EPAC could move into Central America and into the Caribbean by next week.

[jaxfladude]

I heard on the local weather that this disturbance in EPAC could move into Central America and into the Caribbean by next week.

Probability due to older forecasts.............the last few hours have been different the E. Pac system won out it appears....

[boca]

Its time to let this thread go down to the bottom of the page. 61 pages not bad.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, the GFS lost, but it played a close game, and only lost on a shot at the buzzer in double OT

[jaxfladude]

E-Pac wins TD#1-E has formed..thread lock anyone or change of title???

[HURAKAN]

And it will die very soon!!!

[jaxfladude]

:uarrow: And it will die very soon!!!

It is a race between this thread and TD#1-E now...

[Aric Dunn]

cant wait when something forms in the carribean or from all the mess ... it will be quite funny

[boca]

cant wait when something forms in the carribean or from all the mess ... it will be quite funny

Ok since you brought it up, once TD01E disapates over Central America where will that moisture go?

[Aric Dunn]

cant wait when something forms in the carribean or from all the mess ... it will be quite funny

Ok since you brought it up, once TD01E disapates over Central America where will that moisture go?

thats exactly my point.. same place all the rest of the moisture is going and at presently .. lol

[cycloneye]

As soon 90L is up for this Caribbean mess,if it goes up at all,this thread "finnally" will be locked.

[boca]

I'm thinking the higher in latitude TD 01E (Alma) gets the moisture will hit the westerlies and move over The EGOM and W Caribbean and Florida by next week if not sooner.

[cpdaman]

this thing (td 1) does not appear to be in any sort of hurry to come ashore

looking better and better in the epac, and well the excitement abate's on the East side.


now i will say maybe next time , while secretly hoping to awake to a lil exictement on the atl. side

[USTropics]

I'm not the one to wish cast but has everyone ignored the 18z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS? Although the GFS was off on the low pressure system initially moving quickly across Panama and restrengthening in the southwestern Caribbean the key is it did pick up on development in this area long before any of the other models and more importantly was accurate thus should be given some credit. Both models are showing convection breaking off from this system and drifting east as it moves through the Yucatan Peninsula and then appears to interact with the tropical wave at 65/66W. Although I give chances of a new low pressure system forming in the Caribbean low, primarily due to an approaching dry air mass from the east and significant shear values in the GOM, this should not be completely written off yet.

[MGC]

There is currently a ridge over the GOM. Any moisture should be shunted west....MGC

[boca]

There is currently a ridge over the GOM. Any moisture should be shunted west....MGC

I agree with a high in the GOM TD01E almost Alma will move NW but the moisture from it could move north and add rain chances to Florida by next week.The 00zGFS is coming out and at 150hrs a low is in the Gulf of Honduras.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_150m.gif

[JonathanBelles]

[StormspinnerD2]

Does that have to be your avatar? It's really inconvenient for people trying to follow various threads.

[SouthFloridawx]

Albeit it a long shot for the long range GFS to verify, I'm liking the increased chances of some weather for South Florida. Hopefully we'll get an early storm to spin up... Nothing major, a depression to give us a good soaking rain.