2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1694031471122526547

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1694031471122526547?s=20

Wow, GFS for comedy only.

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1694031471122526547?s=20

The GFS has been on both extremes. In some cases, it has had phantoms with 20+ in a row TCGs for something that never materialized. In other cases, it has missed TCG like with Harold.

[ThunderForce]

Although the GFS 12z operational run still shows pretty much nothing, there's a very noticeable uptick in the 12z GEFS ensembles compared to 06z.

[SFLcane]

Ok so wait this one just has me scratching me head how can this be possible lol or was it just luck? Either way wow. Luis feel free to move if not appropriate for this thread.

This was posted by one of my local mets here in West Palm Beach Florida back in March.

They just posted this on there facebook page.

South Texas is one area we highlighted as a potential landfall location... and today, Tropical Storm Harold made landfall there.



Look what they have for september? Better start my preps i guess



https://www.wpbf.com/article/hurricane- ... NOcb8Aoexk

[IcyTundra]

Ok so wait this one just has me scratching me head how can this be possible lol or was it just luck? Either way wow. Luis feel free to move if not appropriate for this thread.

This was posted by one of my local mets here in West Palm Beach Florida back in March.

They just posted this on there facebook page.

South Texas is one area we highlighted as a potential landfall location... and today, Tropical Storm Harold made landfall there.

https://i.postimg.cc/NGZyQKsv/hhhh.png

Look what they have for september? Better start my preps i guess

https://i.postimg.cc/hGG4LnD0/ghghghg.jpg

https://www.wpbf.com/article/hurricane- ... NOcb8Aoexk

That is the Lezak Recurring Cycle right? It is intriguing but I am still pretty skeptical of it.

[SFLcane]

Ok so wait this one just has me scratching me head how can this be possible lol or was it just luck? Either way wow. Luis feel free to move if not appropriate for this thread.

This was posted by one of my local mets here in West Palm Beach Florida back in March.

They just posted this on there facebook page.

South Texas is one area we highlighted as a potential landfall location... and today, Tropical Storm Harold made landfall there.

https://i.postimg.cc/NGZyQKsv/hhhh.png

Look what they have for september? Better start my preps i guess

https://i.postimg.cc/hGG4LnD0/ghghghg.jpg

https://www.wpbf.com/article/hurricane- ... NOcb8Aoexk

That is the Lezak Recurring Cycle right? It is intriguing but I am still pretty skeptical of it.

They might get west coast fl/panhandle for august.

[SFLcane]

All in all i dont buy into any of it.

[jlauderdal]

0z Euro ensembles jumping on a storm moving into the northern Gulf next week as well: https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230822/31bad4422f4216156e726debe8294098.jpeg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230822/67cbc4f7cba081887342d13941b4872e.jpeg


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The euro had a very intense panhandle system a couple of days ago, then lost it, and now it's back with model support, it looks like we have our first big player of the season. Meanwhile, we continue to dodge systems in SE Florida...harry to the west, frank to the se and now this gulf system to the west.

What are we dodging if nothing has formed yet?

If it's not in SE Florida and not coming here, we dodged it and have been for many many years. I start the generator once a month year-round, so far, so good.

[TomballEd]

The euro had a very intense panhandle system a couple of days ago, then lost it, and now it's back with model support, it looks like we have our first big player of the season. Meanwhile, we continue to dodge systems in SE Florida...harry to the west, frank to the se and now this gulf system to the west.

What are we dodging if nothing has formed yet?

If it's not in SE Florida and not coming here, we dodged it and have been for many many years. I start the generator once a month year-round, so far, so good.

The return frequency for big storms here is 25 or 30 years. I've taught probability, I realize 'due' isn't really a thing. But we got another 10 to 15 years. We're good this year, the death ridge that drove Harold straight W will continue doing that for another week, then the ridge retreats back to the W, we get on the backside of the trough, and N (offshore) winds protect us. Next year, maybe 10 years comes early. But SE Florida is due, even if due isn't a sound concept.

[jlauderdal]

What are we dodging if nothing has formed yet?

If it's not in SE Florida and not coming here, we dodged it and have been for many many years. I start the generator once a month year-round, so far, so good.

The return frequency for big storms here is 25 or 30 years. I've taught probability, I realize 'due' isn't really a thing. But we got another 10 to 15 years. We're good this year, the death ridge that drove Harold straight W will continue doing that for another week, then the ridge retreats back to the W, we get on the backside of the trough, and N (offshore) winds protect us. Next year, maybe 10 years comes early. But SE Florida is due, even if due isn't a sound concept.

I ilke your plan, not sure if mother nature will execute....October is prime time for Florida as you know.

[SFLcane]

Still have faith for this season just want to see some model consistency instead of it lasting for 1 run.

[CFLHurricane]

Still have faith for this season just want to see some model consistency instead of it lasting for 1 run.

Yup, this model pattern is a sigh of relief for many a Floridian as we head into peak season. However, I fear our fortunes may turn in October with gyres heading northward our way.

[caneman]

What are we dodging if nothing has formed yet?

If it's not in SE Florida and not coming here, we dodged it and have been for many many years. I start the generator once a month year-round, so far, so good.

The return frequency for big storms here is 25 or 30 years. I've taught probability, I realize 'due' isn't really a thing. But we got another 10 to 15 years. We're good this year, the death ridge that drove Harold straight W will continue doing that for another week, then the ridge retreats back to the W, we get on the backside of the trough, and N (offshore) winds protect us. Next year, maybe 10 years comes early. But SE Florida is due, even if due isn't a sound concept.

I don't think it works that way. The weather pattern is always fluid. And it's just a matter of right place, right time. Or wrong place, wrong time

[SouthFLTropics]

Surprised no one has posted the 00z CMC. Sends a 979mb storm right up Tampa Bay in 168 hours. Looks to develop from the EPac crossover.


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[SouthFLTropics]

Surprised no one has posted the 00z CMC. Sends a 979mb storm right up Tampa Bay in 168 hours. Looks to develop from the EPac crossover.


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00z Icon appears to have something crossing SW FL also, albeit weaker.


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[BobHarlem]

Surprised no one has posted the 00z CMC. Sends a 979mb storm right up Tampa Bay in 168 hours. Looks to develop from the EPac crossover.

This is just 7 days out, 12z run had something near here too, just not anywhere near as organized. GFS does have something move over central america but it remains disorganized too. 12Z euro also had something around here in a week. I guess this will be the area to watch over the next few days for damn sure (besides Franklin and Bermuda) Models really depend on how/where this pops out at on the Atlantic side. West Caribbean here in the Canadian. GFS destroys it over Central America and never really recovers it, Euro is somewhere in between. (18z has it in over Belize)

I.e. watch this on Friday.

[SouthFLTropics]

On closer look there, it appears to hit south of Tampa Bay. More like Sarasota or Bradenton.


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[Steve]

Surprised no one has posted the 00z CMC. Sends a 979mb storm right up Tampa Bay in 168 hours. Looks to develop from the EPac crossover.

I was walking one of my dogs and brushing my teeth. CMC in the house with the big dog and biggest hit so far this year. CMC has gotten much better but it’s still the crazy email forwarding uncle. So wait for support IMHO

[Ianswfl]

Surprised no one has posted the 00z CMC. Sends a 979mb storm right up Tampa Bay in 168 hours. Looks to develop from the EPac crossover.

I was walking one of my dogs and brushing my teeth. CMC in the house with the big dog and biggest hit so far this year. CMC has gotten much better but it’s still the crazy email forwarding uncle. So wait for support IMHO

Looks more like around Venice maybe. That's about a 100mph storm. If the Gulf waters are still 90 degrees IMO that's going to be stronger than that! Looks small in size so surge wise just like Charley that could be a saver there. Otherwise if it's large like Ian that surge will go right up Charlotte Harbor on that track.