2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET has a TD in the E MDR for 1st time with it moving WNW at a brisk pace:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 9.8N 23.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2025 132 9.8N 23.6W 1009 31
0000UTC 12.10.2025 144 10.5N 27.6W 1009 32
1200UTC 12.10.2025 156 10.7N 30.9W 1009 26
0000UTC 13.10.2025 168 11.8N 34.8W 1009 26

[caneman]

https://i.postimg.cc/RVNbxvsg/IMG-1303.gif

Did long range models drop the gulf system?

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/RVNbxvsg/IMG-1303.gif

Did long range models drop the gulf system?

I would not say gulf system moreso caribbean and florida and out just based on climo. The signal has not been consistent just on and off for now. I would be surprised if something does not form it looks pretty favorable especially in about a week or two whether its slop or a major hurricane is anyones guess. Its certainly possible models will pick up on something in the CAG as the MJO moves in we will see.

[Fancy1002]

Why is no one talking about the apparent tropical storm riding up the East Coast on most models in the next few days?

[ConvergenceZone]

Why is no one talking about the apparent tropical storm riding up the East Coast on most models in the next few days?

I think people are just in Winter mode already and giving up on the tropics until next year. Plus the models have been very inconsistent this year so far.

[AnnularCane]

Why is no one talking about the apparent tropical storm riding up the East Coast on most models in the next few days?

I've seen some call it a nor'easter. Not sure how they tell the difference but I'm not going to argue at this point.

[LarryWx]

Why is no one talking about the apparent tropical storm riding up the East Coast on most models in the next few days?

I've seen some call it a nor'easter. Not sure how they tell the difference but I'm not going to argue at this point.

It’s being called a cut-off hybrid nor’easter in all discussions I’ve seen. The reason for genesis isn’t tropical but rather it forms on a cold front/contrasting airmasses along with strong upper level energy (shortwave) diving SE into where the front is located. In contrast, tropical normally forms within a very warm and moist airmass (dewpoints of 75+ preferred) when there aren’t contrasting airmasses and they prefer an upper level high overhead. Though maybe not likely, I think it could transition into subtropical after an extratropical start. If so, it could eventually get a name (ST storm) despite not being purely tropical. But I could also see it never being called subtropical and this not getting named.

What do others think?

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET has a TD in the E MDR for 1st time with it moving WNW at a brisk pace:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 9.8N 23.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2025 132 9.8N 23.6W 1009 31
0000UTC 12.10.2025 144 10.5N 27.6W 1009 32
1200UTC 12.10.2025 156 10.7N 30.9W 1009 26
0000UTC 13.10.2025 168 11.8N 34.8W 1009 26

For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET (12Z) has a briskly moving TD in the E MDR moving WNW. I don’t currently think this is a big deal as it slowly weakens and there’s no support from other models in that location as the Icon and CMC are further E. And there’s no support from the Euro and GFS suites. But I like to post these for the record:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 8.4N 22.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2025 108 8.4N 22.1W 1008 33
1200UTC 11.10.2025 120 8.6N 26.4W 1008 31
0000UTC 12.10.2025 132 9.3N 30.7W 1007 32
1200UTC 12.10.2025 144 10.1N 34.9W 1007 33
0000UTC 13.10.2025 156 11.4N 38.7W 1007 31
1200UTC 13.10.2025 168 12.6N 42.6W 1008 29

[TomballEd]

GFS and Euro ensembles quite unenthusiastic about new Caribbean to BoC. Some high 1000s members, I suppose a TD isn't impossible.


More interested in a later SEUSA development with somewhat better support that could interact with 95L.

[TomballEd]

Op Euro sees sub-tropical development off the SEUSA.

[Fancy1002]

Op Euro sees sub-tropical development off the SEUSA.

https://i.imgur.com/gB0thGe.png

Different models have been showing that for days

[TomballEd]

Op Euro sees sub-tropical development off the SEUSA.

https://i.imgur.com/gB0thGe.png

Different models have been showing that for days

Maybe but other than my ensemble post about the pointless 10% lemon noting the SEUSA subtropical threat, and the post you responded to, nobody, on this page, has said anything. More posts people complaining about a boring season because there hasn't been a billion dollar disaster.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

0Z UKMET has a TD in the E MDR for 1st time with it moving WNW at a brisk pace:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 9.8N 23.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2025 132 9.8N 23.6W 1009 31
0000UTC 12.10.2025 144 10.5N 27.6W 1009 32
1200UTC 12.10.2025 156 10.7N 30.9W 1009 26
0000UTC 13.10.2025 168 11.8N 34.8W 1009 26[

For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET (12Z) has a briskly moving TD in the E MDR moving WNW.
I don’t currently think this is a big deal as it slowly weakens and there’s no support from other
models in that location as the Icon and CMC are further E. And there’s no support from the
Euro and GFS suites. But I like to post these for the record:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 8.4N 22.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2025 108 8.4N 22.1W 1008 33
1200UTC 11.10.2025 120 8.6N 26.4W 1008 31
0000UTC 12.10.2025 132 9.3N 30.7W 1007 32
1200UTC 12.10.2025 144 10.1N 34.9W 1007 33
0000UTC 13.10.2025 156 11.4N 38.7W 1007 31
1200UTC 13.10.2025 168 12.6N 42.6W 1008 29

This is also on the CMC and ICON, and has EPS support. Nothing on the GFS yet though - we'll see if it eventually hops on board.

[Teban54]

0Z UKMET has a TD in the E MDR for 1st time with it moving WNW at a brisk pace:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 9.8N 23.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2025 132 9.8N 23.6W 1009 31
0000UTC 12.10.2025 144 10.5N 27.6W 1009 32
1200UTC 12.10.2025 156 10.7N 30.9W 1009 26
0000UTC 13.10.2025 168 11.8N 34.8W 1009 26[

For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET (12Z) has a briskly moving TD in the E MDR moving WNW.
I don’t currently think this is a big deal as it slowly weakens and there’s no support from other
models in that location as the Icon and CMC are further E. And there’s no support from the
Euro and GFS suites. But I like to post these for the record:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 8.4N 22.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2025 108 8.4N 22.1W 1008 33
1200UTC 11.10.2025 120 8.6N 26.4W 1008 31
0000UTC 12.10.2025 132 9.3N 30.7W 1007 32
1200UTC 12.10.2025 144 10.1N 34.9W 1007 33
0000UTC 13.10.2025 156 11.4N 38.7W 1007 31
1200UTC 13.10.2025 168 12.6N 42.6W 1008 29

This is also on the CMC and ICON, and has EPS support. Nothing on the GFS yet though - we'll see if it eventually hops on board.
https://i.imgur.com/dEuaJ7B.gif
https://i.imgur.com/TFFyXow.gif
https://i.imgur.com/k6ISQ5k.png

If this happens, more storms would have formed in the MDR in October than in August.

[Teban54]

6z ECMWF continues the trend of a system just offshore the Carolinas that the model started a day ago (or even earlier). May be frontal on this run, but the 0z run shows clean separation into a tropical or subtropical storm.

This is also on other models, but generally not as strong or notable as a distinct identity. I also wonder if Euro's insistence on keeping Jerry weak played a part in it.

[Teban54]

Interesting note on Google Deep Mind in Jerry's first advisory:

The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the model consensus through 72 hours and in best agreement with HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean, which have been performing quite well so far this year.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET has a TD in the E MDR for 1st time with it moving WNW at a brisk pace:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 9.8N 23.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2025 132 9.8N 23.6W 1009 31
0000UTC 12.10.2025 144 10.5N 27.6W 1009 32
1200UTC 12.10.2025 156 10.7N 30.9W 1009 26
0000UTC 13.10.2025 168 11.8N 34.8W 1009 26

For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET (12Z) has a briskly moving TD in the E MDR moving WNW. I don’t currently think this is a big deal as it slowly weakens and there’s no support from other models in that location as the Icon and CMC are further E. And there’s no support from the Euro and GFS suites. But I like to post these for the record:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 8.4N 22.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2025 108 8.4N 22.1W 1008 33
1200UTC 11.10.2025 120 8.6N 26.4W 1008 31
0000UTC 12.10.2025 132 9.3N 30.7W 1007 32
1200UTC 12.10.2025 144 10.1N 34.9W 1007 33
0000UTC 13.10.2025 156 11.4N 38.7W 1007 31
1200UTC 13.10.2025 168 12.6N 42.6W 1008 29

After both runs of 10/6 having it and then dropping it at 0Z 10/7, 12Z 10/7 UK has it back:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 8.4N 16.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2025 72 8.4N 16.4W 1009 39
0000UTC 11.10.2025 84 9.0N 21.1W 1008 35
1200UTC 11.10.2025 96 9.4N 25.1W 1007 34
0000UTC 12.10.2025 108 10.7N 29.3W 1006 40
1200UTC 12.10.2025 120 11.7N 33.3W 1008 35
0000UTC 13.10.2025 132 13.0N 36.8W 1008 35
1200UTC 13.10.2025 144 13.6N 40.1W 1009 34
0000UTC 14.10.2025 156 14.6N 42.9W 1009 30
1200UTC 14.10.2025 168 15.7N 45.7W 1010 27

[Fancy1002]

Let me get this straight, if Jerry is weak and pathetic, then the south east coast needs to worry about Karen calling the manager, while if Jerry defies his name, then the northeast has to deal with her nonsense instead.

[Fancy1002]

I hope the one over the Yucatán doesn’t form, just so that my previous joke doesn’t age badly almost immediately.

[SFLcane]

Whatever CAG signal there was very much down trended lots going on in the bahamas will help keep what ever tries to get going strung out it seems.