2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Kingarabian]

Africa looks to be getting busy again:

[img]https://s1.postimg.org/7j56lh4rj/tropical_met_14km_wv.gif[img]

Enhanced convection due to a strong Kelvin currently over it or just finished passing through.
.

[Steve]

(Phil K) is calling for above average activity next 2 weeks but I don't know we're that's gonna come from. For now we watch 90L possibly RI in BOC. No threat to US

I wonder if he's basing that on the MJO forecast? CPC now shows an increasingly amplified period through 8 to about the line on 1. These are favorable if not extremely favorable places on the graph this time of year. Luckily we are still in a transitional period and not 2-5 weeks from now. Even if we only get Franklin out of this pulse, 2017 so far has been one of those seasons where you can bet on development with the MJO. That doesn't occur in all that many seasons and particularly not ones with strong other signals. But that we are in a pretty neutral (relatively) ENSO and there really aren't super impressive other factors, I think the MJO is a flashlight to the activity.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .shtml#for

[Kingarabian]

(Phil K) is calling for above average activity next 2 weeks but I don't know we're that's gonna come from. For now we watch 90L possibly RI in BOC. No threat to US

I wonder if he's basing that on the MJO forecast? CPC now shows an increasingly amplified period through 8 to about the line on 1. These are favorable if not extremely favorable places on the graph this time of year. Luckily we are still in a transitional period and not 2-5 weeks from now. Even if we only get Franklin out of this pulse, 2017 so far has been one of those seasons where you can bet on development with the MJO. That doesn't occur in all that many seasons and particularly not ones with strong other signals. But that we are in a pretty neutral (relatively) ENSO and there really aren't super impressive other factors, I think the MJO is a flashlight to the activity.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .shtml#for

I would assume he is as well. And I'm surprised that we're not talking about this MJO pulse that will move into the Atlantic in 1-2 weeks. It's a pretty strong signal.

The MJO is currently over the CPac pushing into the EPac. Models are in a consensus, showing increased convection in the CPac and the EPac with TC genesis in the EPac forecast within 5 days. I would expect EPac activity to last another 10 days before it shifts to the Atlantic side. So around August 20th I would assume we'll have new invests to track in the Atlantic.

[Siker]

(Phil K) is calling for above average activity next 2 weeks but I don't know we're that's gonna come from. For now we watch 90L possibly RI in BOC. No threat to US

I wonder if he's basing that on the MJO forecast? CPC now shows an increasingly amplified period through 8 to about the line on 1. These are favorable if not extremely favorable places on the graph this time of year. Luckily we are still in a transitional period and not 2-5 weeks from now. Even if we only get Franklin out of this pulse, 2017 so far has been one of those seasons where you can bet on development with the MJO. That doesn't occur in all that many seasons and particularly not ones with strong other signals. But that we are in a pretty neutral (relatively) ENSO and there really aren't super impressive other factors, I think the MJO is a flashlight to the activity.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .shtml#for

I would assume he is as well. And I'm surprised that we're not talking about this MJO pulse that will move into the Atlantic in 1-2 weeks. It's a pretty strong signal.

The MJO is currently over the CPac pushing into the EPac. Models are in a consensus, showing increased convection in the CPac and the EPac with TC genesis in the EPac forecast within 5 days. I would expect EPac activity to last another 10 days before it shifts to the Atlantic side. So around August 20th I would assume we'll have new invests to track in the Atlantic.

EPS has been showing several possible development chances with waves coming off beginning around the 15th to coincide with this. 18z GFS shows extremely low pressures in the MDR and Africa and two storms in the Atlantic in two weeks.

Question is how coherent the MJO is by the time it reaches our part of the globe.

[Ntxw]

Question is how coherent the MJO is by the time it reaches our part of the globe.

The MJO has been incoherent for awhile and there isn't much of a signal for awhile longer.

[Siker]

Question is how coherent the MJO is by the time it reaches our part of the globe.

The MJO has been incoherent for awhile and there isn't much of a signal for awhile longer.

Good point, was just going off Ventrice's VP200 plots but as you pointed out in the other thread it seems to be another Kelvin wave. Question is how coherent THAT will be by the time it reaches the Atlantic.

[Steve]

Question is how coherent the MJO is by the time it reaches our part of the globe.

The MJO has been incoherent for awhile and there isn't much of a signal for awhile longer.

I don't know man. If CPC has it right, there's a major signal 8-14 thru at least 8-19. I'm sure that's not going to be exactly right, but that's a signal we haven't seen this season. And if it loops far to the perimeter and say goes over to 2, we would still not be in a suppressive phase.

[Ntxw]

Question is how coherent the MJO is by the time it reaches our part of the globe.

The MJO has been incoherent for awhile and there isn't much of a signal for awhile longer.

I don't know man. If CPC has it right, there's a major signal 8-14 thru at least 8-19. I'm sure that's not going to be exactly right, but that's a signal we haven't seen this season. And if it loops far to the perimeter and say goes over to 2, we would still not be in a suppressive phase.

There hasn't been much amplitude to the MJO and no guidance suggest there will be and neither does the CPC. It's largely looped near the inner circle (weak and incoherent). The rising and falling motion (8-14/8-19) is likely from another passing CCKW

[gatorcane]

And I'm surprised that we're not talking about this MJO pulse that will move into the Atlantic in 1-2 weeks. It's a pretty strong signal.

The MJO is currently over the CPac pushing into the EPac. Models are in a consensus, showing increased convection in the CPac and the EPac with TC genesis in the EPac forecast within 5 days. I would expect EPac activity to last another 10 days before it shifts to the Atlantic side. So around August 20th I would assume we'll have new invests to track in the Atlantic.

Agree with you on August 20th with some EPAC then Atlantic development. I do think it will be a busy in the Atlantic after that with an above normal September. Not sure about October but if El Niño holds off busy October is possible too.

[Steve]

The MJO has been incoherent for awhile and there isn't much of a signal for awhile longer.

I don't know man. If CPC has it right, there's a major signal 8-14 thru at least 8-19. I'm sure that's not going to be exactly right, but that's a signal we haven't seen this season. And if it loops far to the perimeter and say goes over to 2, we would still not be in a suppressive phase.

There hasn't been much amplitude to the MJO and no guidance suggest there will be and neither does the CPC. It's largely looped near the inner circle (weak and incoherent). The rising and falling motion (8-14/8-19) is likely from another passing CCKW

So are you thinking that's the cause of the forecast graph leaving the circle on the 13th and showing increasing amplification? Or are you just not buying the forecast?

[Ntxw]

So are you thinking that's the cause of the forecast graph leaving the circle on the 13th and showing increasing amplification? Or are you just not buying the forecast?

If you are talking about the GFS forecast, it's probably not the true MJO but rather strong CCKW. Sometimes those can give a false MJO signal. You will know when you see the MJO signal it likes to take amplitude and loop through many phases often starting over the Indian Ocean and then travel counter clockwise through the MC-Pacific-WHEM.

[Steve]

So are you thinking that's the cause of the forecast graph leaving the circle on the 13th and showing increasing amplification? Or are you just not buying the forecast?

If you are talking about the GFS forecast, it's probably not the true MJO but rather strong CCKW. Sometimes those can give a false MJO signal. You will know when you see the MJO signal it likes to take amplitude and loop through many phases often starting over the Indian Ocean and then travel counter clockwise through the MC-Pacific-WHEM.

Oh for sure. It was just that stretch out into 8 and then sliding toward 1 but well amplified. GFS did get right the slide back through 6 that's occurring now but it took a few runs. Other generally looked at models back at the end of July had 1, 2 , 4, etc. I guess we will see it amplification follows the central US cold pool early to mid next week.

[SFLcane]

For now all this basin can do is a crapola tc into the BOC. Wake me up

[Alyono]

For now all this basin can do is a crapola tc into the BOC. Wake me up

really? We're going to have a hurricane

[SFLcane]

For now all this basin can do is a crapola tc into the BOC. Wake me up

really? We're going to have a hurricane

Oh yea a hurricane and BOC is a prime local for that BUT iam sorry i just miss tracking a bonified long track CV storm. Iam sure others echo this same feeling. Hope HWRF is wrong about future franklin could be some crazy mud-slides down there. Hope Phil-K is right and things get going soon.

[Bocadude85]

Usually when there is this much talk of the season being a bust or quiet it ends up happening. I understand people want to wait 2-4 more weeks before calling it but I currently have a really hard time seeing this season meeting the expectations that most are forecasting.

It is not even peak season yet nor are we past peak season..... We could possibly by at 7/1/0 by next Friday heading into the peak with forecasters even raising the number of named storms. We are on par with 2016 so far. How is this a bust?

Where are you coming up with an additional two storms by next Friday? The only game in town right now is 90L/future Franklin which could likely become a short-lived major in the BoC bringing us to 6/1/1 if that happens. Last year by this date we were at 5/2/0 for what it's worth. What has me really concerned is seeing the models showing nothing out to day 16 (August 22nd).

Check the 18Z GFS. GFS has two developing hurricanes in the Atlantic, one east of the Leewards and another in the Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

Bocadude85 careful might be gone next run...

[Bocadude85]

Bocadude85 careful might be gone next run...

I was refrencing thestormexperts comments about models not showing any storms in their long range forecast. I'm sure the storms in the long range GFS are phantom, but they may be indicative of a more favorable Atlantic in the coming weeks.

[tolakram]

Assuming the GFS is correct conditions look really bad in the MDR through at least 192 hours.

[cycloneye]

Maybe this new wave gets the MDR going.

@MJVentrice
Big shift in the ECMWF EPS for a *Second* strong convectively coupled Kelvin wave to pass the Atlantic basin; Boosts tropical activity

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/894521305403404288