2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[cycloneye]

Looks like there will be activity in July.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1537440861121822721

[SFLcane]

Looks like there will be activity in July.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1537440861121822721

[skyline385]

When dynamical models have difficulties predicting path 5 days into the future, looking for possible storm paths in CFS for September is not going to end well. You could do a coin toss and probably end up with an equally accurate result. Even the strongest ridge shown on long range models could have a small break which would send a system out to sea.

[Spacecoast]

if anything past 240 hr is fantasyland, what would 2,040 hr forecast be characterized as?
Anyway, here is a merely hypothetical 840 GEFS run....

[SFLcane]

When dynamical models have difficulties predicting path 5 days into the future, looking for possible storm paths in CFS for September is not going to end well. You could probably do a coin toss and end up with an equally accurate result. Even the strongest ridge shown on long range models could have a small break which would send a system out to sea.

This is " certainly '' not the point here lol. The CFS is clearly showing a very favorable main development region for ASO that is the point i was trying to make. It is very likely going to be one heck of a CV yr.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1537450169133780997

[skyline385]

When dynamical models have difficulties predicting path 5 days into the future, looking for possible storm paths in CFS for September is not going to end well. You could probably do a coin toss and end up with an equally accurate result. Even the strongest ridge shown on long range models could have a small break which would send a system out to sea.

This is " certainly '' not the point here lol. The CFS is clearly showing a very favorable main development region for ASO that is the point i was trying to make. It is very likely going to be one heck of a CV yr.

Yes but remember that the CFS is not a high resolution model and it is running off current data 3 months into the future. It is barely able to get general atmospheric conditions right that far into the future so you can imagine how accurate the CFS showing tropical wave development would be.

I am not at all suggesting that September won't be active, we are going into a very favourable season and September is prime time for MDR activity but just that the CFS showing waves doesn't mean much imo.

[toad strangler]

When dynamical models have difficulties predicting path 5 days into the future, looking for possible storm paths in CFS for September is not going to end well. You could do a coin toss and probably end up with an equally accurate result. Even the strongest ridge shown on long range models could have a small break which would send a system out to sea.

I like to sound like a broken record on this too. It's all about that 500mb set up and position of storm. It literally means everything when it comes to a track. And it's impossible with a capital I to nail that fine stuff down until sometimes just hours before making a landfall or skirting OTS. This applies to all terra firma Lesser A's on W.

But I catch Adrian's drift ... he's looking at the larger picture and it sure looks like a lot of cheerios in the milk is a distinct possibility.

[cheezyWXguy]

When dynamical models have difficulties predicting path 5 days into the future, looking for possible storm paths in CFS for September is not going to end well. You could do a coin toss and probably end up with an equally accurate result. Even the strongest ridge shown on long range models could have a small break which would send a system out to sea.

I like to sound like a broken record on this too. It's all about that 500mb set up and position of storm. It literally means everything when it comes to a track. And it's impossible with a capital I to nail that fine stuff down until sometimes just hours before making a landfall or skirting OTS. This applies to all terra firma Lesser A's on W.

But I catch Adrian's drift ... he's looking at the larger picture and it sure looks like a lot of cheerios in the milk is a distinct possibility.

Yes, the more important takeaway is that it shows activity in general, not specifics on exactly where the activity goes or how strong it gets. Comparing timeframes of the cfs to dynamical models isn’t really fair, since dynamical have so much higher of a resolution and take into account more variables. The more complexity here, the faster errors can compound. This is why mesoscale models typically don’t run more than 60 hours out. The tools are all useful for their selective purposes and don’t serve for an apples to apples comparison.

[skyline385]

When dynamical models have difficulties predicting path 5 days into the future, looking for possible storm paths in CFS for September is not going to end well. You could do a coin toss and probably end up with an equally accurate result. Even the strongest ridge shown on long range models could have a small break which would send a system out to sea.

I like to sound like a broken record on this too. It's all about that 500mb set up and position of storm. It literally means everything when it comes to a track. And it's impossible with a capital I to nail that fine stuff down until sometimes just hours before making a landfall or skirting OTS. This applies to all terra firma Lesser A's on W.

But I catch Adrian's drift ... he's looking at the larger picture and it sure looks like a lot of cheerios in the milk is a distinct possibility.

Yes, the more important takeaway is that it shows activity in general, not specifics on exactly where the activity goes or how strong it gets. Comparing timeframes of the cfs to dynamical models isn’t really fair, since dynamical have so much higher of a resolution and take into account more variables. The more complexity here, the faster errors can compound. This is why mesoscale models typically don’t run more than 60 hours out. The tools are all useful for their selective purposes and don’t serve for an apples to apples comparison.

You are correct that a high resolution model has more parameters which introduce a lot of variability but a low resolution model completely lacks the finer grid level which would be responsible for accurately resolving relatively smaller length scale phenomenon like tropical waves (emphasis on accurate resolution). Also even the smallest length scale phenomenon will affect weather patterns on a large scale 3 months into the future which the low res models completely miss out on.

Models like CFS are not run at lower resolutions because higher resolution introduces errors but because the time to run a higher resolution model would be impractical and not possible with the current computing power available. Model resolutions are generally updated with most major updates.

[cycloneye]

WAM.

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1537497152750030848




 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1537500426144292864

[Category5Kaiju]

While there may be discrepancies on exact steering that some of these models are predicting by ASO (some thinking 2010 repeat, others thinking many land impacts), I think the alarmingly high consensus that the Caribbean is likely to be wetter than normal makes me think that that region is going to be a prime area to watch, and at least in terms of strong storms traveling the length of the sea, something we haven’t seen in quite some time.

[aspen]

Maybe we’ll see a very active July this season. The wave train is already in full force, the ASW/WAM will start becoming dominant next month (see cycloneye’s post), and I remember some Euro guidance hinting at possible activity off the SEUS coast and in the western MDR between late June and early July. Any MDR system in July is a strong indicator of an above-average season; since 1980, the only years with a July MDR storm that were not above-average were 1989, 1990 (both during the -AMO phase), and 2013 (THC collapse).

[MHC Tracking]

When dynamical models have difficulties predicting path 5 days into the future, looking for possible storm paths in CFS for September is not going to end well. You could probably do a coin toss and end up with an equally accurate result. Even the strongest ridge shown on long range models could have a small break which would send a system out to sea.

This is " certainly '' not the point here lol. The CFS is clearly showing a very favorable main development region for ASO that is the point i was trying to make. It is very likely going to be one heck of a CV yr.

While in general I'd say that using the CFS (in particular this far out) isn't advisable, I have to agree on the latter point.

[skyline385]

And here we go with the TUTT again

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1537605333501231105




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1537606511198932994

[aspen]

And here we go with the TUTT again

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1537605333501231105

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1537606511198932994

A TUTT has managed to find a way to form during peak season for the last two years despite otherwise favorable forecasts for ASO, so I see no reason for one not to pop in and cause at least one inactive phase. It’s unclear if 2022 will have the same wild swings in activity levels as 2021, though.

[AlphaToOmega]

And here we go with the TUTT again

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1537605333501231105

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1537606511198932994

A TUTT has managed to find a way to form during peak season for the last two years despite otherwise favorable forecasts for ASO, so I see no reason for one not to pop in and cause at least one inactive phase. It’s unclear if 2022 will have the same wild swings in activity levels as 2021, though.

I do not imagine a TUTT being that much of a hindrance. Despite the TUTT seen in 2020, it still managed to produce 5 late-season major hurricanes (Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Iota), and the TUTT was not what caused 2021 to have such a pathetic late season; it was the Atlantic Nino.

[aspen]

And here we go with the TUTT again

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1537605333501231105

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1537606511198932994

A TUTT has managed to find a way to form during peak season for the last two years despite otherwise favorable forecasts for ASO, so I see no reason for one not to pop in and cause at least one inactive phase. It’s unclear if 2022 will have the same wild swings in activity levels as 2021, though.

I do not imagine a TUTT being that much of a hindrance. Despite the TUTT seen in 2020, it still managed to produce 5 late-season major hurricanes (Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Iota), and the TUTT was not what caused 2021 to have such a pathetic late season; it was the Atlantic Nino.

2020’s typhoon-enhanced TUTT sheared Paulette and Rene, drastically cutting down the former’s ACE potential and preventing the latter from becoming a hurricane. Without that TUTT, 2020 likely would have surpassed 1998 as the 10th most intense season in terms of ACE.

2021’s TUTT had an even greater impact on peak season. Much of September was filled with weak storms like Peter that were limited by the TUTT. Only after it left could Sam become the storm Peter was originally modeled to be.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1537753182063013890

[skyline385]

And here we go with the TUTT again

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1537605333501231105

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1537606511198932994

A TUTT has managed to find a way to form during peak season for the last two years despite otherwise favorable forecasts for ASO, so I see no reason for one not to pop in and cause at least one inactive phase. It’s unclear if 2022 will have the same wild swings in activity levels as 2021, though.

I do not imagine a TUTT being that much of a hindrance. Despite the TUTT seen in 2020, it still managed to produce 5 late-season major hurricanes (Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Iota), and the TUTT was not what caused 2021 to have such a pathetic late season; it was the Atlantic Nino.

This TUTT would be a hindrance to any AEW in the Western MDR or the Caribbean unless it it is recurving out to sea and seeing how August is prime time for the former, it very likely will be affecting activity.