TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[elysium]

Not Irene, the ridge. Irene is fine, it's the ridge that's getting demolished. We need to wait a week for it to recover. Should set up nicely. Strong waves getting ready to roll off africa. Could get interesting.

[Mac]

Irene is looking more and more like a tropical storm with each passing frame coming off the sats. Have been busy today and only had time to review Irene on the 6pm newscast. At that time she exhibited a minor flare up of convection, but didn't appear to be very well organized. This hour, she is rapidly getting it together. Once again we are beginning to see a burst of magenta near the center, with excellent circulation clearly evidencing spiral banding features and outflow. It simply doesn't get any better than this.

It is important to remember that Irene's intensity, which is at a bare bones minimum right now, is totally unimportant. There is an argument to be waged that Irene poses more of a potential threat in her current mode of slow early stage continous development followed by peeks and valleys in which she has consistantly and tenaciously always pulled through, in a trecherous environment for development, as she nears an exceptionally conducive environment for development. Irene is extremely well organized. Only an extremely well organized system could have weathered what Irene has been through. But her organization extends not only to over-all wherewithal through trying times, but also as pertains to satellite imagery. Irene looks spectacular on sat feed and has for days now, always reorganizing her center with the type of rotational integrity that tells us visually and through the perusal of her 56 page history that she is in this for the long haul.

It has all been uphill for Irene until now. An uphill battle that would have wiped out a lesser storm has now been surmounted. We don't care how strong she is now. We know that getting strong while being badly battered by the cantankerous forces of sheer is, by its very nature, a hideously fallacious concept. All that matters, now that only rich tropical fuel water with added hurricane nitro lay ahead is 'did she make it?'. To that, we can resoundingly and unequivocally answer 'why certainly she did'.

it is certain that Irene will develop robustly in her new environment. Irene has won the battle for development in the hearts and minds of every sensible forecaster. We don't want an intense system. What we want is a system with integrity moving into an enviroment conducive for rich growth and solid organization as we begin raising the intensity forecast upwards again and again once Irene begins deepening and her outflow matures. The only real issue to focus on right now is track and directional heading. For right now and for at least the next 10 days, Irene will be heading westward as she intensifys according to every credible forecast and all the dynamical models.

Irene is one potent, dynamical storm.

Elysium I LOVE reading your analysis and posts with the nice vocabulary and eloquent wording. I have to retake the SAT I Reasoning Test this fall and your posts are improving my speed and comprehension. Thanks!!

I did not even make it through the first sentence.
I see the author and just move on...

So why make a biting comment, then? Everybody is entitled to post their opinions on the board. If you don't want to read what somebody has to say, then just ignore it. But I see no point in the biting comments.

This is growing rather tiresome.

[wxwatcher91]

this is very interesting... since the ridge has given way and Irene is now getting sheared to death again on the west side, the west side is really starting to erode... the 09:45z on satellite and still a bit on IR it actually looks like an eye of some sort...

visible:


convection has increased on the east side and outflow is pretty good to the north and east...

[Nimbus]

If there was more shear out there Irene would be dissipated soon.
The early morning visibles show convection over the light circulation so they will keep Irene a TD for a while yet.
Even an open wave would be a threat moving west under a ridge though.
The water vapor imagery shows the the upper air winds quieting down a little where the ridge is supposed to build.
The concern this morning is the long range potential scenarios with a storm building under a strong ridge close to the US coastline.
At least in the short run we won't have any media hype to scare the oil markets.

[wxwatcher91]

50kt flag at 23N 55W on latest quikSCAT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now thats a strong tropical wave....

[wxwatcher91]

wonder what the models will have at 8..........................

[elysium]

The pressures on the east coast are finally stabalizing but the damage has been done. The mid-atlantic will have to watch this one because Irene can possibly reach minimal hurricane status, and while Irene will never get even reasonable outflow, she could still impact the mid-atlantic. Might see erosion related damage. Perhaps a fishing pier or two will go. Nothing spectacular, but at least pressures have stabalized somewhat.

[Thunder44]

QS shows no closed surface circulation. Doesn't matter how strong the winds are.

[Marilyn]

Call me crazy but look at that image ! She looks like a dead rat. with nose eyes and mouth.. the nose and mouth are at the bottom of the storm. do you see it??

[wxwatcher91]

Call me crazy but look at that image ! She looks like a dead rat. with nose eyes and mouth.. the nose and mouth are at the bottom of the storm. do you see it??

hmm... kinda ya... lol this puts a whole new meaning to "cloud watching" others usually do it from BELOW the clouds lol... so besides the fact it looks like a dead rat, any meteorological analysis you want to make of the satellite pic???

[Marilyn]

well i don't know enough to make a prediction or commits on what is happening to Irene so i better not even try it. Like i said call me crazy i noticed it when i was viewing the image, I am trying to learn from all the people in here that seem to know what they are talking about, and living on the EC an hour from Wilimgton i get concern ,

[MortisFL]

Irene has been dead and alive about a dozen times already.

[Javlin]

I have to agree she looks like an open wave for the time being but I would not exactly go throwing her under the bus with no brakes exactly yet guys.Shear looking lite for the next 24-36 hrs. and the convection looks decent as she continues W.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Hyperstorm]

Morning Update:

Irene has had a vigorous Mid-Level Circulation which developed yesterday afternoon. The LLC from 2 days ago dissipated yesterday, but the system is still quite vigorous. It has been an open wave since yesterday, but so was Andrew in 1992 with only a vigorous MLC. The NHC has kept it as a tropical depression for continuity purposes just as they did with Andrew. Similarities are striking.

Convection has re-developed with Irene overnight just as expected, which tells me that the MLC is slowly becoming better organized. Watch carefully for the MLC to make it to the surface TODAY. I'm not sure if the NHC would drop the advisories at 11 (as they should have done since yesterday morning), but the fact is that Irene should be back within the next 12-24 hours with a strong LLC. The cloud pattern has become better organized since yesterday and resembles that of a vigorous disturbance, which has a high potential for development. The outflow is becoming more circular and SSTs are rising in the mid 80*s.

Expect the system to continue heading W-WNW over the next few days...

[cycloneye]

10/1145 UTC 22.1N 56.3W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050810 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050810 1200 050811 0000 050811 1200 050812 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.3N 57.2W 23.0N 59.3W 24.0N 61.4W 25.0N 63.6W
BAMM 22.3N 57.2W 23.0N 59.4W 24.0N 61.6W 25.0N 63.7W
A98E 22.3N 57.2W 22.5N 58.8W 23.4N 60.6W 24.9N 62.6W
LBAR 22.3N 57.2W 22.9N 59.0W 23.8N 61.0W 24.5N 62.9W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050812 1200 050813 1200 050814 1200 050815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.1N 65.7W 27.9N 68.8W 29.7N 72.3W 32.4N 75.3W
BAMM 26.1N 65.5W 27.7N 67.9W 28.6N 70.3W 30.2N 72.6W
A98E 26.5N 64.6W 28.3N 68.5W 30.2N 71.7W 33.1N 73.1W
LBAR 25.7N 64.5W 27.7N 67.0W 29.5N 69.2W 30.7N 70.6W
SHIP 53KTS 64KTS 67KTS 66KTS
DSHP 53KTS 64KTS 67KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.3N LONCUR = 57.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 22.4N LONM12 = 55.7W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 22.4N LONM24 = 53.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Winds haved been increased to 30kts once again after dropping to 25kts last night.

[WeatherEmperor]

I dont get it Luis. How come the models keep on turning Irene north if she has had a west bias most of this time. I remember checking the 00Z models from last night and checked out that all of them had Irene in 12 hours to be anywhere from 23.3N-23.6N and obviously she is still at around 22.3-22.4N. Do they have a right or northward bias or am I seeing it wrong?

<RICKY>

[ALhurricane]

Well the satellite imagery is improving, that's for sure. It may have been an open wave at some point yesterday, but the latest visible imgery tells me that is not the case now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Definite banding occurring now with the system. Outflow also appears to becoming better established. It surely looks to me that Irene has fought her way through the toughest environment possible.

[cycloneye]

She has survived all the hostility as she has been a very tenasious system but now is liftoff time.