ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[SFLcane]

El Niño is probably wishful thinking at this point. Well see

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1496475940750299139

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1495823067565727745?s=21

https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1495824956873220099?s=21

Getting to the fork in the road now. We'll see if we're still on the way to El Niño or not in the next couple of weeks

[cycloneye]

The clock is ticking.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1496475940750299139

[Kingarabian]

The GFS will eventually show a WPAC WWB because its insisting on a strong and slow MJO over the MC that will probably move into the WPAC.

Rest of the models are building westerly anomalies over 120E but aren't moving them over the Pacific just yet since they significantly weaken the MJO once it enters and passes the MC.

[hurricane2025]

Will not be any El Niño fellows will be neutral

[NotSparta]

Will not be any El Niño fellows will be neutral

A little too early to say that given that we haven't seen what that MJO will do. If there isn't a notable WWB El Niño is probably not happening but we don't know that yet

[Kingarabian]

The new trade burst forecast for the next 15 days is the atmosphere basically blocking El Nino. You can see it in the 850mb wind progressions eastward. First 2 sets of enhanced trades were clearly due to IO MJO activity. A period that has lasted nearly 30 days. The last set is something else not related to the MJO.



Long range Euro finally shows relaxed trades past March 12 over the dateline.

[Kingarabian]

Last update already showed upwelling btw.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Last update already showed upwelling btw.

https://i.imgur.com/lssa6Ad.png

Yeah that warm pool is starting to fracture already, and the bulk of the EWB hasn't even started yet. March of course is one of the important transitional months for ENSO - if a WWB fails to materialize next month and into early April then I would say +ENSO/El Niño prospects drop exponentially for this year.

If we do end up with a third consecutive Niña by the fall/winter history says it would increase the odds for El Niño the following year by quite a bit, so there's that to look out for, but of course I wouldn't exactly bank on a "triple dip" quite yet.

[Kingarabian]

El Nino's best friend the GFS, is backing off of any strong WPAC MJO progression compared to last week. This means a strong WWB in March is becoming unlikely.

[Kingarabian]

Last update already showed upwelling btw.

https://i.imgur.com/lssa6Ad.png

Yeah that warm pool is starting to fracture already, and the bulk of the EWB hasn't even started yet. March of course is one of the important transitional months for ENSO - if a WWB fails to materialize next month and into early April then I would say +ENSO/El Niño prospects drop exponentially for this year.

If we do end up with a third consecutive Niña by the fall/winter history says it would increase the odds for El Niño the following year by quite a bit, so there's that to look out for, but of course I wouldn't exactly bank on a "triple dip" quite yet.

For a downwelling KW to trigger +ENSO without atmospheric support it needs to be as strong as the one in 2014 and 2018. Other years that had similar weaker downwelling KW strengths that triggered +ENSO like 2006 and 2009, had much better atmospheric support for +ENSO. The thinking in late 2021 was that the downwelling KW from December would be aided by more energy during February but that failed to materialize.

[Kingarabian]

The CFS tanks Nino 3.4 to strong La Nina levels by April. This is the SPB in full effect, because while this trade burst coming up will promote upwelling and cooling, warming of the ENSO regions is still very favored. Before they fall off again by the end of May.

[Yellow Evan]

ENSO is so annoying I swear lol at least pre-SPB.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1498342869530255360

[SFLcane]

ENSO is so annoying I swear lol at least pre-SPB.

Annoying or not the odds of el nino impacting this season are quite low and frankly look unlikely. As 57 stated no real inhibiting factors this season as of now.

[Kingarabian]

At least to me, it was easier than normal to call no El Nino for 2022 since it was apparent La Nina had a strong hold on the atmosphere during NDJ despite the WWB we saw. 2021 had a much better shot than this.

Today's MJO forecasts consensus strongly supports no strong WPAC MJO for the month of March. Which would wrap it up.

[Category5Kaiju]

And here I was, thinking even as early as December of last year that El Nino would be a surefire thing for 2022. Welp..looks like we'll have better luck in 2023. Now it's time to really discuss and hone in on whether we get cool neutral or La Nina, and if we do get La Nina then how strong it could get

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1498797891388940290

[hurricane2025]

Will be neutral, let’s get ready to rock n roll

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1498797891388940290

With this weeks developments, we don't need seasonal models to know what state ENSO will be for ASO. It's pretty clear there will be no El Nino. Even if we see a late spring WWB like 2009, there's going to be some significant upwelling developing soon and will persist for the next 3-5 months that it won't overcome. I still think Nino regions will warm some though before falling again due to the present downwelling KW. I don't think Nino 3.4 will tank like a rock.

In regards to El Nino chances: "The game's in the refrigerator, the door's closed, the light's out, the eggs are cooling, the butter's getting hard and the jello's jiggling"