ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Yellow Evan]

What even is a super Niña? Most La Ninas assert their dominance by their longevity rather than intensity and what arguably separates super Ninos from strong ones is they at least partially reverse the Walker Circulation. What is the super equivalent?

[Kingarabian]

What even is a super Niña? Most La Ninas assert their dominance by their longevity rather than intensity and what arguably separates super Ninos from strong ones is they at least partially reverse the Walker Circulation. What is the super equivalent?

We don't know because it's never been recorded before. I am very intrigued on the possible effects. Maybe much more intense droughts/floods in certain places. Atmospherically it will probably keep the Walker circulation strong for another year or so. Certainly drought implications for the W and SW CONUS. For me a super Nina would be a trimonthly where Nino 3.4 is near -2.5C. Per the CPC's ONI chart that has never happened before.

[Kingarabian]

-4C on the latest subsurface update.



MJO set to be stronger over the EPAC this time around which will lead to more convergence and westerly winds in the eastern east pacific. So expect Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 to be warmer for a little longer. Once the December downwelling KW is exhausted, rapid cooling will follow.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1505938058486726657




 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1505938071623188489




 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1505938828007256064




Next few weeks the difference between weak La Niña/cool neutral and moderate if not strong Niña, which could have long term implications beyond 2022 but I’m getting ahead of myself here.

[Kingarabian]

We've seen weak westerly anomalies pop up in prior years with zero effect around this time frame. At least per the official Nino 3.4 readings, it will be extremely hard to get anything other than La Nina for the summer of 2022. Upwelling will only be favored below the dateline. Trades will get even stronger around July. It's easier to get westerlies in the eastern EPAC when there's persistent strong trades over the dateline, so yeah we'll see spot westerlies and some warming near Nino 1+2 and Nino 3, but the chance for cool neutral or warm neutral has passed.

[Yellow Evan]

Probably the most favorable trade pattern for warmth across the Pacific that we’ll get in a while. If were lucky this will temporarily bring us to near cool neutral territory.

[Iceresistance]

Is it possible to have a Quad-Dip La Nina?

[AlphaToOmega]

Is it possible to have a Quad-Dip La Nina?

1998-1999, 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002 all featured -ENSO during Boreal Winter.

[Yellow Evan]

Is it possible to have a Quad-Dip La Nina?

It’s not particularly likely. Generally in the Pacific after years of La Ninas you get ridging over the Northeast Pacific, warming up the Northeast Pacific and triggering anticyclonic rossby wave breaking over the Eastern Pacific, which favors +PMM and +PDO. In addition, all the warmth over the IPWP makes it easier for westerlies to lead to a sudden warmup in the Pacific. If I had to randomly guess, we probably hit +ENSO at some point next year but so much can happen obviously from now to then.

Still, this is going to be one of the most impressive Ninas we are going to see just due to how long the Walker Circulation will be supercharged for so it’s cool to see.

[Category5Kaiju]

Is it possible to have a Quad-Dip La Nina?

It almost happened with the 1998-2000 La Nina, although 2001 was neutral while during the 1973-1975 La Nina, 1976 was actually El Nino. So the odds are 2023 will likely not be La Nina, but idk at this point. The world is crazy, so who knows if we'll see a La Nina continue until 2026 lol

[Kingarabian]

Pretty good looking EPAC WWB on the CFS:



Doubt it verifies at this strength though. Even then, there's little OHC in this region. However if we simply did not have sustained dateline trades for most of Jan-March, this WWB could've initiated +ENSO.

[NotSparta]

Pretty good looking EPAC WWB on the CFS:

https://i.imgur.com/CKBMQIg.png

Doubt it verifies at this strength though. Even then, there's little OHC in this region. However if we simply did not have sustained dateline trades for most of Jan-March, this WWB could've initiated +ENSO.

Yeah its position means it'll probably not have major ramifications on ENSO long term but we'll probably see the persistence of the warm anomalies out east for a little longer. Perhaps coastal Niño this spring

[Shell Mound]

Pretty good looking EPAC WWB on the CFS:

https://i.imgur.com/CKBMQIg.png

Doubt it verifies at this strength though. Even then, there's little OHC in this region. However if we simply did not have sustained dateline trades for most of Jan-March, this WWB could've initiated +ENSO.

Yeah its position means it'll probably not have major ramifications on ENSO long term but we'll probably see the persistence of the warm anomalies out east for a little longer. Perhaps coastal Niño this spring

Coastal Niños also tend to suppress instability and increase vertical wind shear over the Caribbean during the early part of the Atlantic season. A warmer Niño 1+2 also could allow for some early-season TC activity over the easternmost EPAC before the summertime trades accelerate and result in resumed equatorial cooling. Most of the pre-August TC activity in the Atlantic will probably occur in the subtropics, while I would not be surprised to a see a few powerful hurricanes early on in the EPAC, before summertime reversal occurs. At this point cool neutral ENSO or weak Niña conditions seem to be most probable come ASO.

[NotSparta]

Pretty good looking EPAC WWB on the CFS:

https://i.imgur.com/CKBMQIg.png

Doubt it verifies at this strength though. Even then, there's little OHC in this region. However if we simply did not have sustained dateline trades for most of Jan-March, this WWB could've initiated +ENSO.

Yeah its position means it'll probably not have major ramifications on ENSO long term but we'll probably see the persistence of the warm anomalies out east for a little longer. Perhaps coastal Niño this spring

Coastal Niños also tend to suppress instability and increase vertical wind shear over the Caribbean during the early part of the Atlantic season. A warmer Niño 1+2 also could allow for some early-season TC activity over the easternmost EPAC before the summertime trades accelerate and result in resumed equatorial cooling. Most of the pre-August TC activity in the Atlantic will probably occur in the subtropics, while I would not be surprised to a see a few powerful hurricanes early on in the EPAC, before summertime reversal occurs. At this point cool neutral ENSO or weak Niña conditions seem to be most probable come ASO.

I don't think any kind of coastal Niño could last long enough to have that many effects on the hurricane season. +NPMM/-SPMM generally do not favor warmth in the equatorial EPAC so I would expect this feature to fade rather than persisting through summer

[Kingarabian]

Yeah 2012 and 2017 had some sort of coastal El Nino at one point. Didn't do much to limit the Atlantic hurricane season

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah 2012 and 2017 had some sort of coastal El Nino at one point. Didn't do much to limit the Atlantic hurricane season

Especially 2017.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Yeah 2012 and 2017 had some sort of coastal El Nino at one point. Didn't do much to limit the Atlantic hurricane season

Definitely didn't limit 2017, although you could argue it was somewhat of a negative factor in 2012 since that was a warm-neutral year. MDR activity was generally weak as a result despite the high NS count.

[AlphaToOmega]

Yeah 2012 and 2017 had some sort of coastal El Nino at one point. Didn't do much to limit the Atlantic hurricane season

The only conditions that matter for hurricane seasons are ones for JAS (Pacific Hurricane Season) and for ASO (Atlantic Hurricane Season).

[Kingarabian]

Yeah 2012 and 2017 had some sort of coastal El Nino at one point. Didn't do much to limit the Atlantic hurricane season

Definitely not 2017, although you could argue it was somewhat of a negative factor in 2012 since that was a warm-neutral year. MDR activity was generally weak as a result despite the high NS count.

Not sure if you were disagreeing or agreeing with me but 2017 was the prime example of a surface El Nino.




Warm at the surface and cool at the subsurface.

I point out 2012 as a coastal El Nino because it was an event that was focused near Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 and it failing to affect the Atlantic. Pre season numbers from most agencies were well below average and instead, we saw 19/10/2 as the final count. 2012 was weird because surface and subsurface were warm near Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 leading many to think an El Nino was on its way. But waters near Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 were consistently cool to warm neutral meaning this was never going to be legit +ENSO event that would favor EPAC activity and reduce Atlantic activity.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Yeah 2012 and 2017 had some sort of coastal El Nino at one point. Didn't do much to limit the Atlantic hurricane season

Definitely not 2017, although you could argue it was somewhat of a negative factor in 2012 since that was a warm-neutral year. MDR activity was generally weak as a result despite the high NS count.

2017 was the prime example of a surface El Nino.

http://i.imgur.com/m1QsrRK.gif
http://i.imgur.com/e7KpZGC.gif

Yeah I meant to say it didn't limit 2017, my bad, it does appear as if I was saying 2017 didn't have a coastal Niño at one point. It definitely did as you said: