The April CPC update increases La Niña for ASO up to 51% and that is up from 45% on the March update. It has Neutral at 45% and that is the same and decrease4 el niño to 7%.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 April 2022
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall.
During March 2022, La Niña continued with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the past week, all of the Niño index regions were between -0.7°C and -1.1°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) decreased and were negative the entire month [Fig. 3] due to the expansion of below-average temperatures from the surface to 200 meters depth in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed across the western and central Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remained over the east-central Pacific. Suppressed convection remained significant around the Date Line and was enhanced over the Philippines and Southeast Asia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.
The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. This month, the forecaster consensus predicts Niño-3.4 index values to weaken into the summer but remain below the threshold of La Niña (Niño-3.4 values equal to or less than -0.5°C). The change in the consensus forecast to slightly favoring the continuation of La Nina is primarily based on recent model runs from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the persistence of atmosphere-ocean coupling, which remains fairly strong for this time of year. While La Niña is slightly favored through the fall, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty, given the combined 45-50% chance for ENSO-neutral or El Niño from July-September onwards. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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