Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[KWT]

I think the GFS is doing its usual where it is just so stubborn on letting go its previous forecasts that is doomed to bust on its predicitions.

Meanwhile not even a hint of rapidly strengthening tropical storm Alma!

[NDG]

OK, I admit it, GFS is crazy with its 12z run in the short term:lol:

[Thunder44]

It looks like it brings Alma's LLC, west into and across Nicuragua, before developing the low north of Honduras.

[NDG]

Which is still a possibility of the vorticity in the higher levels keeps moving into the Gulf of Honduras

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, maybe we shouldn't be anthropomorphizing code and equations running on a super-computer, but, geez, the GFS did so well, missing by only a couple hundred miles from almost two weeks out on predicting a tropical cyclone in the Western Caribbean, when it went almost exactly to plan but on the wrong side of Central America.


But, to let it go to its Cray or IBM head, and guzzle the model rot-gut, and spit out a Caribbean storm tomorrow?


Anyway, I'm sticking with July 27th as the day this thread gets locked, when somewhere in/near the Caribbean in the Atlantic Basin, an invest forms after the GFS predicted it from at least a week out. In my opinion, it would be cheating if the GFS locks onto an invest just a day or two before it is declared.

[KWT]

Thats an interesting possiblity Thunder44, the models really aren't too sure what to do with Alma after it come sinland. Some send it back west whilst a few sends it northwards towards the gulf of Hounduras. We will have to watch Alma over the next 24-48hrs to see if it does re-emerge.

[gatorcane]

yes the best chance of NW Caribbean development or any kind of threat to the US at this point from the mess in the Caribbean is IF Alma can move into the Gulf of Honduras and reorganize. Chances are low but it is possible if it takes the eastern side of the NHC code. It should get ripped apart pretty good going across Central America though but I don't want to rule out the possibility especially with an eroding ridge across the GOM that should start to happen by the end of this weekend.

[cycloneye]

Ramdis now has floater for Western Caribbean.

[Aric Dunn]

yes the best chance of NW Caribbean development or any kind of threat to the US at this point from the mess in the Caribbean is IF Alma can move into the Gulf of Honduras and reorganize. Chances are low but it is possible if it takes the eastern side of the NHC code. It should get ripped apart pretty good going across Central America though but I don't want to rule out the possibility especially with an eroding ridge across the GOM that should start to happen by the end of this weekend.

we dont need the circulation to make it... just for it to weaken. a new center can reform anywhere with along the trough axis that still exists in the western carribean besides the tropical waves that are there.. also the convection that is in the carribean is not going anywhere anytime soon ..

[gatorcane]

Ironically enough, although the EPAC low (e.g. Alma won the battle) and the board seems negative on Western Caribbean formation, this snippet from the NWS Mia discussion is the most I have seen them talk about any kind of tropical system affecting South Florida mentioning several ways it could happen.

So its not time to kill this thread yet, not even close in my opinion.

THEN AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGEST UPR LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE RESULT BEING MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. OPERATIONAL
GFS DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER NEXT WEEK OFF WHATEVER IS LEFT BEHIND FROM THE CURRENT
SYSTEM AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER AND
QUITE DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS FEATURE. IT JUST KEEPS A WEAK SYSTEM
DOWN ACROSS THE YUCATAN REGION. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEVELOPS
THE SYSTEM BUT IS ALSO WEAKER. NONE OF THEM DEVELOP THE SYSTEM FOR
THE TIME PERIOD COVERED BY THIS FORECAST (THROUGH WEDNESDAY). SO
YES WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME KIND OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA LATE NEXT WEEK BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS TWO
LARGE AT THIS TIME TO BE ANY MORE DEFINITIVE ABOUT THIS. FOR
NOW...WILL ONLY REFLECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD

[cycloneye]

12z GFs at 156 Hours 1006 mb low in NW Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

12z GFs at 156 Hours 1006 mb low in NW Caribbean.

Luis there are two lows there, I think the SW low in the Gulf of Honduras must be the GFS trying to regenerate Alma.

[cycloneye]

12z GFs at 168 Hours 1004 mb low in Gulf of Honduras.Other low not there.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFs at 156 Hours 1006 mb low in NW Caribbean.

Luis there are two lows there, I think the SW low in the Gulf of Honduras must be the GFS trying to regenerate Alma.

i can take a wild guess ( actually its not that far of a stretch ) but the gfs keeps that trough axis and the unsettled weather ( convection ) in the western carribean and when ever there is convection persisting given enough time chances are something will eventually form.. so the fact that the gfs continues to produces lows forming thats because the mechanism is still present to see potential development for many more days

[cycloneye]

12z GFs at 216 Hours

12z GFS at 240 Hours.

South Floridians would recieve this with open arms in terms of aliviating the drought conditions there.

[Aric Dunn]

latest 48 forecast

[Aric Dunn]

12z 48 hr nogaps .. starts showing something nw carrib

[KWT]

I'm guessing the place to watch for will be along the tropical wave as it head westwards in the next 48-96hrs or so. The last area of rotation in the SW started to look like it was going to get going but then Alma started to really get going and dominate and sent that system westward overland. This upcoming wave won't have that issue.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm guessing the place to watch for will be along the tropical wave as it head westwards in the next 48-96hrs or so. The last area of rotation in the SW started to look like it was going to get going but then Alma started to really get going and dominate and sent that system westward overland. This upcoming wave won't have that issue.

that and the remnants of alma will play a part .. the circulation should not survive the track but a broad turning might and a center can easily reform ..

[Aric Dunn]

60 hr