Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Aric Dunn]

84 hrs

[Thunder44]

The 12z GGEM has a 1007mb low in the Gulf of Honduras, at 24hrs. It moves into Belize and Mexico from there.

[Aric Dunn]

cmc
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


look how far north thr gfdl goes now..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


nogaps
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

Check out the storms south of Jamaica. Most likely an illusion ...

[KWT]

Is that GFDL showing the remains of Alma coming up through central America and reforming back in the Gulf of Honduras?

Certainly some interesting models that are trying to keep Alma going northwards, wonder what the ECM will show later?

[RL3AO]

GFDL 60kts and only 1001mb?

[Aric Dunn]

Is that GFDL showing the remains of Alma coming up through central America and reforming back in the Gulf of Honduras?

Certainly some interesting models that are trying to keep Alma going northwards, wonder what the ECM will show later?

yeah brings alma into the western carrib

[Thunder44]

The 12z GFDL is only model that I've seen today, that shows Alma making the crossover. It's keeps the LLC intact.

[KWT]

GFDL 60kts and only 1001mb?

Remember those aren't surface winds, 60kts would probably equate down to 55kts which would be about right if you were to use a very basic pressure-wind relationship.

[Frank2]

This is from the latest NWSFO Miami Discussion:

IN FACT, THE GFS NOW SHOWS THIS [EAST COAST TROUGH] FEATURE TO BE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH IN TURN SUPPRESSES THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SOUTHWARD AGAIN. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN TO SHOW THIS AND THE GFS CHANGES RUN TO RUN WITH REFERENCE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURN, WILL NOT ADJUST EXTENDED JUST YET.

We'll see what happens...

Frank

[NDG]

12z Euro continues w/the idea of breaking down the ridge across the south for next week and bringing a disorganized remnants NE towards FL. Keeps pressures low in the GOM/NW Caribbean through the period.

[KWT]

Yep looks like a big area of lower pressure. If any convection can become concentrated in that region then its got a chance of development, as you say looks like the remains of Alma eventually lifted up to the NE through a weakness.

[cycloneye]

Cuba Radar:



Plenty of showers and thunderstorms over and near Jamaica,but nothing seen like a circulation in that area.

[Vortex]

18Z Nam rolling out appears to really want to take a slug of moisture and lift it north into the western carribean...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... slp_036l.g

[HURAKAN]

A lot of moisture in the Caribbean.

[KWT]

Yep plenty of moisture about though a lot of it appears to be wrapped around Alma. That may well lessen to a big extent in the next 24-36hrs as Alma weakens over land.

[tolakram]

Plenty of showers and thunderstorms over and near Jamaica,but nothing seen like a circulation in that area.

It's further south than that but I believe what I was seeing is shear blowing the tops off of some of those storms giving the appearance of rotation. There is a lot of wind shear near Jamaica.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Doesn't look like Florida will be getting any moisture from Alma. Probably will head west.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Doesn't look like Florida will be getting any moisture from Alma. Probably will head west.

I'm guessing some remnant moisture gets into the Bay of Campeche, based on the models, but not much further North than that.


But, maybe some of the 700 and 850 mb moisture depicted moving from the Caribbean toward Florida in a week is from Alma or the disturbed Caribbean weather that lost the race to develop.