Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[RL3AO]

You guys still looking at models? I was told by reputable sources that this season was a bust.

[NDG]

Dr Phil finally talks about the Atlantic but no mention of 97L at all or about a potential active August

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/759782457721942016

[gatorcane]

97L could be a good indicator the Caribbean will be open for business this year and not just the Western Caribbean...

[CFLHurricane]

Happy Peak Season everyone!

May the odds ever be in our favor.

[tolakram]

A couple of interesting tweets.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/760556620770189312




and then

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/760561459034148864

[TheStormExpert]

Could the CFS forecasting an active Atlantic for August be wrong?

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/760592051872206848

[NDG]

"usually"

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: "usually"

Usually what?

[NDG]

:uarrow: "usually"

Usually what?

"Usually" does not mean that it is going to be a 100% certainty.

[gatorcane]

As we can see from Earl and what most folks have been saying within this thread, the Caribbean and in particular Western Caribbean is a favored zone this year since we do not have El Nino. The MDR east of the Lesser Antilles may not be as favorable but these tropical waves are vigorous and making it all the way across (even into the EPAC where they develop as soon as they hit favorable conditions). Something is telling me this is not the only system we will see explode in the Caribbean waters this year...

[TheStormExpert]

And if the pattern changes with less of a SE U.S./W. Atlantic ridge the U.S. Gulf Coast or even Florida will need watch out!

[HURRICANELONNY]

Once in awhile I look at the SAL images in the Atlantic. What caught my eye was how pronounced the Sal is moving south off coast of Africa. Pretty much squashing any waves coming off Africa for now. Don't remember seeing the SAL move so far south.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

[centuryv58]

Once in awhile I look at the SAL images in the Atlantic. What caught my eye was how pronounced the Sal is moving south off coast of Africa. Pretty much squashing any waves coming off Africa for now. Don't remember seeing the SAL move so far south.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

But elsewhere on the blog and other weather sites say just the opposite. They say SAL is decreasing. It does not look like its increasing to me or even look as bad as it did a few weeks ago when you look at it on the maps.

[Siker]

Once in awhile I look at the SAL images in the Atlantic. What caught my eye was how pronounced the Sal is moving south off coast of Africa. Pretty much squashing any waves coming off Africa for now. Don't remember seeing the SAL move so far south.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

But elsewhere on the blog and other weather sites say just the opposite. They say SAL is decreasing. It does not look like its increasing to me or even look as bad as it did a few weeks ago when you look at it on the maps.

SAL is definitely on the increase for now compared to how it's been in the past week. This coincides with a large pulse of downward motion currently centered over Africa, squashing thunderstorm activity and accelerating low-level flow off of the continent. The MJO should perk its head up in the Western Pacific over the next two weeks, which favors continued sinking air over the Atlantic and Africa. Not impossible that a system could develop during that time, especially a system that doesn't originate from the deep tropics; however, any typical bursts of activity that we begin to see in the peak months should hold off until roughly the last third of August when the MJO should become favorable, or at least less unfavorable, for the Atlantic.

[chaser1]

Once in awhile I look at the SAL images in the Atlantic. What caught my eye was how pronounced the Sal is moving south off coast of Africa. Pretty much squashing any waves coming off Africa for now. Don't remember seeing the SAL move so far south.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

But elsewhere on the blog and other weather sites say just the opposite. They say SAL is decreasing. It does not look like its increasing to me or even look as bad as it did a few weeks ago when you look at it on the maps.

SAL is definitely on the increase for now compared to how it's been in the past week. This coincides with a large pulse of downward motion currently centered over Africa, squashing thunderstorm activity and accelerating low-level flow off of the continent. The MJO should perk its head up in the Western Pacific over the next two weeks, which favors continued sinking air over the Atlantic and Africa. Not impossible that a system could develop during that time, especially a system that doesn't originate from the deep tropics; however, any typical bursts of activity that we begin to see in the peak months should hold off until roughly the last third of August when the MJO should become favorable, or at least less unfavorable, for the Atlantic.

Ditto those thoughts. In fact I think a credible point of genesis might be when the present wave EAST of 96L (which has entrained a lot of dry air during the past 24 hours), eventually moves WNW to some point where perhaps vorticity along its wave axis might begin firing up as it too nears the Central Caribbean in about a week.

[centuryv58]

Still think it's wrong time of year to worry about increasing SAL. But we'll see how it turns out.

[FireRat]

According to the models thread at present, it looks like we need to watch out for homegrown systems off the US Gulf and SE coast in the week to 2 weeks ahead while the MDR is likely quiet.

[OuterBanker]

Happy Peak Season everyone!

May the odds ever be in our favor.

Not yet. Aug 15 to Oct 15 true peak. Give it time. And yes, I'm concerned about close in or development or waves west of 50.

Waters in Gulf and off East coast very warm. Look out.

[tolakram]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... errifying/

A study published by the American Geophysical Union in 2015 said the lack of major hurricane landfalls boiled down to dumb luck rather than a particular weather pattern. “I don’t believe there is a major regime shift that’s protecting the U.S.,” said study lead author Timothy Hall from NASA.

[What’s driving our major hurricane landfall drought? Study says it’s just dumb luck.]

A “recurring” area of low pressure near the U.S. East Coast in recent years may have repelled some storms, argue Klotzbach and Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. But McNoldy still believes “luck is really 99 percent of it [the drought].”

This is why I keep harping on those insisting there is some weather pattern responsible for the drought and lack of so called quality storms. A study finds no pattern and some of our best hurricane forecasters still believe luck is 99% of the reason.

[Kingarabian]

Latest Euro runs in the long range are trending lower pressures in the EPAC.