2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[WeatherEmperor]

The Euro for the MJO is in phases 8 and 1 for at least a month, that is scary and I would think a western Caribbean monster would come from such a pattern

Sorry for the dumb question, but how does phase 8 and 1 increase ATL activity? Which areas in the badin does it favor most?


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[Hurricaneman]

The Euro for the MJO is in phases 8 and 1 for at least a month, that is scary and I would think a western Caribbean monster would come from such a pattern

Sorry for the dumb question, but how does phase 8 and 1 increase ATL activity? Which areas in the badin does it favor most?


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The Caribbean and western Atlantic

[SFLcane]

This is as quite as I have seen Storm2K during the peak of the hurricane season. Right now the Atlantic is more bark then bite.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1172916029036650496

[Kazmit]

This is as quite as I have seen Storm2K during the peak of the hurricane season. Right now the Atlantic is more bark then bite.

No land threats for now. Looks like the waves in the MDR will get sucked up with Humberto.

[MetroMike]

This is as quite as I have seen Storm2K during the peak of the hurricane season. Right now the Atlantic is more bark then bite.

No land threats for now. Looks like the waves in the MDR will get sucked up with Humberto.

Yes,nothing to see here.

[Kingarabian]

The Euro for the MJO is in phases 8 and 1 for at least a month, that is scary and I would think a western Caribbean monster would come from such a pattern

Sorry for the dumb question, but how does phase 8 and 1 increase ATL activity? Which areas in the badin does it favor most?


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The Caribbean and western Atlantic

Phase 8, the MJO is primarily in the EPAC, but you definitely can get some Caribbean/GOM systems.

[Hammy]

We're not likely to have had more than three hurricanes by September 20 by the look of things--that number is behind every hurricane season in the last quarter century save for 2002, 09, 13, and 15. Given three of those are Nino years (which this year isn't) I still have to wonder if something has been off with the global atmosphere this year, in a similar sense as 2013 was basin-wide but from a different source (there haven't been the same thing as the same 'problems' of high shear and low-latitude winter-type cold lows have been absent, and the western basin outside the Caribbean has still been favorable). I know there's been plenty of sinking air but the question is why has this unfavorable state been so present this year, despite warm water, reduced shear, and lack of El Nino, and the lack of other signals that would indicate suppressed activity there). The entire eastern half of the basin has effectively been shut down this year (and likely will remain so for the season) significantly limiting the number of storms over the open Atlantic, everything that we've had this year seemed so heavily MJO or Kelvin wave-dependent (just look what happened with Gabrielle and what was originally expected to be Humberto once it moved out of the basin.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1172992135999754241

[MetroMike]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1172992135999754241

Wonder how reliable these forecasts are?
Being that the models don't seem at all impressed atm.
Is it possible that once the 8-1 phase gets to our basin that it will be more of a suppressed CCKW
thus verifying what the models are not seeing?

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1172992135999754241

Wonder how reliable these forecasts are?
Being that the models don't seem at all impressed atm.
Is it possible that once the 8-1 phase gets to our basin that it will be more of a suppressed CCKW
thus verifying what the models are not seeing?

CFS has been generally reliable in predicting trends even if the exact timing is off, and more often than not (as it's never completely consistent) the runs have shown more activity in late September/most of October in the Caribbean and Gulf.

[Steve]

58.5 ish ACE. Slightly below normal in hurricanes as Hammy has been pointing out. Humberto ought to get us close to average for now and maybe the next system behind it will make 4. We’d need 3 named storms with 2-3 of those to become hurricanes to hit average. Seems doable [if] MJO is a little slower coming back counter clockwise from 8-1-2 and lasts as long as some of the models are predicting. Maybe it goes to 3 or back in the circle and comes out to 2 in that late pulse from the video posted earlier where the blue shrunk but was over the gulf in that pulse.

I’m now next to positive and will bet anyone any reasonable amount of money that we are going to hit average for just about everything this year. Hurricanes (which I think is 6.8) might be 6, but I think we’ll get at least there.

Hammy, the one thing I noticed most of the summer was that even though there was still El Niño influence at times, most of the eastern temperate and subtropical regions of US and western Atlantic seem to have had more tranquil patterns with less amplification. I think sometimes the amplification precursors conditions that sometimes lead to development. That’s nothing but anecdotal based on me watching models and the weather. Maybe the water temperatures off the US and Canadian east coasts are part of that?

Also I don’t count pouches if that’s still a thing but it seems like maybe there have been fewer African waves this year or at least any that made much of a difference compared to normal. It’s wetter than average in some parts of Western Africa but still.

[WeatherEmperor]

58.5 ish ACE. Slightly below normal in hurricanes as Hammy has been pointing out. Humberto ought to get us close to average for now and maybe the next system behind it will make 4. We’d need 3 named storms with 2-3 of those to become hurricanes to hit average. Seems doable [if] MJO is a little slower coming back counter clockwise from 8-1-2 and lasts as long as some of the models are predicting. Maybe it goes to 3 or back in the circle and comes out to 2 in that late pulse from the video posted earlier where the blue shrunk but was over the gulf in that pulse.

I’m now next to positive and will bet anyone any reasonable amount of money that we are going to hit average for just about everything this year. Hurricanes (which I think is 6.8) might be 6, but I think we’ll get at least there.

Hammy, the one thing I noticed most of the summer was that even though there was still El Niño influence at times, most of the eastern temperate and subtropical regions of US and western Atlantic seem to have had more tranquil patterns with less amplification. I think sometimes the amplification precursors conditions that sometimes lead to development. That’s nothing but anecdotal based on me watching models and the weather. Maybe the water temperatures off the US and Canadian east coasts are part of that?

Also I don’t count pouches if that’s still a thing but it seems like maybe there have been fewer African waves this year or at least any that made much of a difference compared to normal. It’s wetter than average in some parts of Western Africa but still.

In your best opinion do you think we will see alot if WCAR activity this year in October because of what the CFS shows?


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[Hurricaneman]

Here’s a coincidence, the MJO forecast by the Euro is basically the same in October as it was last year at the same time. There should be heightened awareness of what happened last year with the same setup and definitely something to watch for

[Steve]

I don’t know emperor. If so it will be the difference from an average season to an above average one. Got about 5 weeks to see and you never know about November. It’s over up here, but...

[Hammy]

FWIW as far as GoM/Caribbean goes, the CFS shows a 1921-type hurricane in early October, two weaker systems (one near Texas, one near west Florida after) in mid-October, and a sort of typical late-season Cuba-crossing NW Caribbean storm in mid-November, as well as a Klaus-1984 type system forming in the eastern Caribbean in early December--given the fairly heavy delay in the season overall (despite Dorian, the Atlantic is presently functioning as if it's mid-August, not mid-September) it would not surprise me at all to see a post-season storm or two this year.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1173096311987548160

[SFLcane]

I asked ventrice on Twitter on why there’s isn’t much on the models despite mjo moving and a strong kelvin wave and this was his response below..

models will miss the convective enhancement to pre-existing waves and will struggle with the convective triggering of news waves over Africa.

[CyclonicFury]

Don't write off the MDR just yet.
 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1173250619697762306

[DestinHurricane]

My guess would be we may see a Centeal American Gyre type system in October