2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[StruThiO]

Anyone basing a prediction on the lid coming off later than August 20-25 on the GFS should stop making predictions and find a hobby better suited for them, like perhaps coloring.

[TheProfessor]

All I have to say is that if anything gets trapped underneath that ridge that the GFS, Euro, and CMC are showing 7-10 days from now then lookout. With the way the ridge is oriented and the weakness over the central Gulf states, that's a very bad steering flow towards the U.S mainland.

[SFLcane]

All I have to say is that if anything gets trapped underneath that ridge that the GFS, Euro, and CMC are showing 7-10 days from now then lookout. With the way the ridge is oriented and the weakness over the central Gulf states, that's a very bad steering flow towards the U.S mainland.

Yes, I mentioned this a few days ago one trof doesn’t make a pattern. It’s been a very worrisome steering for a few weeks now could mean big problems in the heart of the season.

[aspen]

12z GFS is still as quiet as a mouse. It won’t show a TC unless it’s force-fed one. However, the last several runs have shown a strong AEW going into the Caribbean next week, which could be something to watch.

[Ivanhater]

12z Gfs has a 1001mb low in the NW Caribbean. I still think it is out to lunch hanging too much activity in the epac but it is trying.

As I've said, the NW Caribbean is the area to watch the last week of August

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[AutoPenalti]

The GFS is saying there’s an El Niño out there with its output, as they say garbage in garbage out, the Euro ensembles are showing an uptick between the 20th and 25th so the Euro seems to have the correct pattern With a more La Niña like one as opposed to the new joke called the GFS

I would say the model accurately predicted the uptick in EPAC activity well in advance in the long-range and so far has been forecasting the shear reasonably well out through the mid to long range across the Atlantic MDR. It was a little off with Josephine but let’s face it the storm is weak and sheared anyway so nothing to be concerned with.

I think the GFS has really struggled with some of its genesis forecasts. That being said, it’s still resolving its intensities.

[CyclonicFury]

The GFS is saying there’s an El Niño out there with its output, as they say garbage in garbage out, the Euro ensembles are showing an uptick between the 20th and 25th so the Euro seems to have the correct pattern With a more La Niña like one as opposed to the new joke called the GFS

I would say the model accurately predicted the uptick in EPAC activity well in advance in the long-range and so far has been forecasting the shear reasonably well out through the mid to long range across the Atlantic MDR. It was a little off with Josephine but let’s face it the storm is weak and sheared anyway so nothing to be concerned with.

I think the GFS has really struggled with some of its genesis forecasts. That being said, it’s still resolving its intensities.

In recent years, GFS has seemingly been unable to detect long-range MDR development. It never picked up on the wave that spawned Isaias until it exited Africa. It almost never develops strong MDR ghost storms anymore. Instead, it'll spin up bogus CAG-like hurricanes in the NW Caribbean and GoM at times of year when climatology does not favor them.

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF is keeping development over in the EPAC for the next 10 days, how the 12Z run ends:

[SFLcane]

The ECMWF is keeping development over in the EPAC for the next 10 days, how the 12Z run ends:

https://i.postimg.cc/Kv1xrzVC/ecmwf-uv850-vort-epac-11.png

Why wouldn’t it the MJO is right over the eastern pacific. Development is not expected across the Atl basin till months end.

[EquusStorm]

A 'little' off with Josephine, off with Isaias until it actually formed, very off with Hanna, completely off with Gonzalo... yeah not an ideal track record with AEW development at all I'd say

Little better with EPac systems, but again, they've all turned out to be nothingburgers except maybe the big boi coming next week. Maybe that one will challenge Douglas but IF it winds up as brief and weak as all the others I think it's time to assume it's overdoing the EPac development in a year where the base state is just not that favorable there

[aspen]

The ECMWF is keeping development over in the EPAC for the next 10 days, how the 12Z run ends:

https://i.postimg.cc/Kv1xrzVC/ecmwf-uv850-vort-epac-11.png

It’s showing a vigorous tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa on Tuesday. While this run doesn’t do anything with it, it’s probably something that warrants attention as we near August 20th.

[captainbarbossa19]

The ECMWF is keeping development over in the EPAC for the next 10 days, how the 12Z run ends:

https://i.postimg.cc/Kv1xrzVC/ecmwf-uv850-vort-epac-11.png

It’s showing a vigorous tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa on Tuesday. While this run doesn’t do anything with it, it’s probably something that warrants attention as we near August 20th.

While it's at the end of the run, the Euro actually has two areas of interest east of the Lesser Antilles. This forecast will likely change and I suspect we will need to pay more attention soon since the start of the average peak season is a week away now.

[aspen]

18z GFS has the Caribbean wave I mentioned earlier at the Lesser Antilles on August 24th. It tracks through the Greater Antilles and passes offshore of the US East Coast, eventually developing into a moderate tropical storm by the end of the run.

TL;DR, looks like the GFS is starting to like the idea of late August AEW development.

[aspen]

12 CMC develops a tiny TC in the MDR by August 22nd/23rd.

[eastcoastFL]

I would say the model accurately predicted the uptick in EPAC activity well in advance in the long-range and so far has been forecasting the shear reasonably well out through the mid to long range across the Atlantic MDR. It was a little off with Josephine but let’s face it the storm is weak and sheared anyway so nothing to be concerned with.

I think the GFS has really struggled with some of its genesis forecasts. That being said, it’s still resolving its intensities.

In recent years, GFS has seemingly been unable to detect long-range MDR development. It never picked up on the wave that spawned Isaias until it exited Africa. It almost never develops strong MDR ghost storms anymore. Instead, it'll spin up bogus CAG-like hurricanes in the NW Caribbean and GoM at times of year when climatology does not favor them.

Is climatology even considered in models?

[eastcoastFL]

Has anyone else noticed the massive hurricane looking low that the models form in the extreme North Atlantic and then slams into Europe 6 days from now?!

It looks like it hits England around next Thursday as a 984mb storm and it’s pretty big in size

http://www.stormsurfing.com/stormuser2/ ... p_12hr.png

[Extratropical94]

Has anyone else noticed the massive hurricane looking low that the models form in the extreme North Atlantic and then slams into Europe 6 days from now?!

It looks like it hits England around next Thursday as a 984mb storm and it’s pretty big in size

http://www.stormsurfing.com/stormuser2/ ... p_12hr.png

It also absorbs 96L before that. GFS brings it down to 968 shortly before hitting Ireland, but weakens it into the 980s while crossing Great Britain. The lowest recorded pressure in the UK in August is 967.7 mb btw. Not too shabby for the summer months, could bring hurricane-force gusts to W Ireland, depending on the track.
Hopefully we'll see some cooler temps in C Europe from this system. We hit our 8th consecutive 30C day here in Hamburg yesterday which, believe it or not, is a new record. And yes, I hear you Southerners laughing.

[aspen]

6z GFS is less enthusiastic about EPac development after the 40/80 major, and still shows the AEW that is at the Lesser Antilles on the 22nd/23rd develop several days later. This time, it takes it into the Gulf.

[Hurricaneman]

6z GFS is less enthusiastic about EPac development after the 40/80 major, and still shows the AEW that is at the Lesser Antilles on the 22nd/23rd develop several days later. This time, it takes it into the Gulf.

Not just that, it has 2 waves in the MDR develop at the end of the run, the GFS is starting to sniff out the true conditions in the Atlantic

[SFLcane]

Active look of the african coast on the EPS.