TD 10...Back Again

[ronjon]

The reason I am NOT writing this off is because anything and everything can develop this time of year. Also, this looks to head into the gulf, so that makes my radar a little interested...I think someon posted earlier about the Ukmet?? I think? has a closed low south of MSY?

Yeah, 00Z Euro has a closed circulation strengthening in the central GOM in 144 hrs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET and Euro are two different models. Just to avoid confusion.

Euro > UKMET, as well.

Its my slang for the UKMET. I'll use the proper name next time. I promise.

[gkrangers]

The reason I am NOT writing this off is because anything and everything can develop this time of year. Also, this looks to head into the gulf, so that makes my radar a little interested...I think someon posted earlier about the Ukmet?? I think? has a closed low south of MSY?

Yeah, 00Z Euro has a closed circulation strengthening in the central GOM in 144 hrs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET and Euro are two different models. Just to avoid confusion.

Euro > UKMET, as well.

Its my slang for the UKMET. I'll use the proper name next time. I promise.

Well..ok...but the ECMWF = Euro. Try Ukie

[elysium]

I'm looking but not finding anything in the vicinity discussed in the report, unless they are talking about a new development out of the remnant convection. The remnant circulation center positioned west of the convection north of the Dominican went poof in the wee hours this morning. Apparently, the dry air wild card came flying out, which I know little about but will take into consideration to a much greater extent than previously.

I'm looking all around Puerto Rico, but can't find anything now except the remnant convection., but yes, it's likely that if it made its way to the surface it would be handled as the same invest.

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 201430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 20 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-084

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING CANCELED BY NHC AT 20/1215Z.


As expected all missions for today and tommorow were cancelled.

[Sanibel]

I figured it out now. This poofed yesterday, but left a lingering convection area that converged and flared in the surrounding synoptic. I didn't realize that the center had torn away and was too weak to flare.

When a surface feature is 400 miles west of the convection it is usually ripped away and finished...

[WeatherEmperor]

I figured it out now. This poofed yesterday, but left a lingering convection area that converged and flared in the surrounding synoptic. I didn't realize that the center had torn away and was too weak to flare.

When a surface feature is 400 miles west of the convection it is usually ripped away and finished...

yes it is only a matter of time before it finally meets its demise. muhahahaha!

<RICKY>

[HurricaneGirl]

Wow

[WeatherEmperor]

Wow

Yes HurricaneGirl. I can taste the dark side. You should too! Its in your destiny j/k. No I just hope that former TD10 just dies already and goes away to put all of us out of our misery. its developing...no its not developing...its developing...no its not developing. oh I grow weary of that.

<RICKY>

[Cookiely]

NWS Tampa
DURING MID WEEK AND BEYOND THE FORECAST GETS A BIT TRICKY AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF TD #10
MOVING WEST TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. THE 06Z RUN OF THE DGEX SHOWS
THIS FEATURE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY WHERE IT MEANDERS
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE DEEPENING IT. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES WEST THROUGH
THE STRAITS AND INTO THE GULF. THE DGEX SOLUTION LOOKS HIGHLY SUSPECT
AT THIS TIME...SO WILL IGNORE FOR NOW AND LEAN CLOSER TO THE WEAKER
LOOKING GFS WHICH DEPICT GENERAL TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION (PW'S ~2") AND THIS COMBINED
WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL MEAN HIGH END SCATTERED RANGE POPS
~50% FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS. ONGOING GRIDDED
POPS LOOK GOOD...BUT HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS SOME TO REFLECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...VERY WARM
85H TEMPS AND HIGH THICKNESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY WITH NIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT ~80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MEX
GUIDANCE AGAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND ACCEPTED.


&&

[elysium]

There is a suspicious area just off the NW coast of Puerto Rico. Looks like it's working its way to the surface. If that's the case, we should be hearing something from the NHC in the 5 pm.

This is not over; this may just be the beginning.

[elysium]

Looking better, looking better.

[SouthFloridawx]

can you point out where this circulation is moving towards the surface?

[elysium]

(lol) That looking better double post was my attempt to punch out of the thread. Wanted to correct the original posting. I went back and reviewed the visable. The area just to the NE of Puerto Rico may not be the dominate feature. There is now a more defined area to the north of that one. The feature to the north may be the reason the NHC is keeping this an invest.

This whole area has muliple pockets of suspicion, but most are nothing more than turbulence within the convection. The area 100 miles north of the west coast of Puerto Rico looks increasingly suspicious.

[cinlfla]

(lol) That looking better double post was my attempt to punch out of the thread. Wanted to correct the original posting. I went back and reviewed the visable. The area just to the NE of Puerto Rico may not be the dominate feature. There is now a more defined area to the north of that one. The feature to the north may be the reason the NHC is keeping this an invest.

This whole area has muliple pockets of suspicion, but most are nothing more than turbulence within the convection. The area 100 miles north of the west coast of Puerto Rico looks increasingly suspicious.

I don't think this mess of whatever it is that use to be td 10 is going to amount to very much if anything. You might want to turn your attention to the wave comeing off of Africa.

[WeatherEmperor]

(lol) That looking better double post was my attempt to punch out of the thread. Wanted to correct the original posting. I went back and reviewed the visable. The area just to the NE of Puerto Rico may not be the dominate feature. There is now a more defined area to the north of that one. The feature to the north may be the reason the NHC is keeping this an invest.

This whole area has muliple pockets of suspicion, but most are nothing more than turbulence within the convection. The area 100 miles north of the west coast of Puerto Rico looks increasingly suspicious.

One would think that after 4-5 days of flaring up/dying down over and over and over that this thing is just not gonna develop. I dunno.....

<RICKY>

[elysium]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may NOT be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TD 10 remnants appear to be regenerating 100 miles NNW of Puerto Rico.

[gkrangers]

There appears to be a thunderstorm NNW of Puerto Rico.

[Frank P]

actually if you look at the latest vis loops there hints of a possible LLC developing or at least trying to develop near the vicinity of 20.6 and 66.0, you can see the lower level clouds moving north into that area, this was not discernable a couple of hours ago, also hints of a broad mid level circulation as well... maybe ex TD 10 is going to just tease us to death....

[elysium]

Possibly a tad east of that point. That is not a thunderstorm. That is as stated above with solid structure.

[x-y-no]

The wave axis which was TD10 is actually north of Hispaniola now, extremely weak and with no convection.

But there's another wave, which has been gradually catching up with TD10R and is now in the vicinity of Puerto Rico. That, in conjunction with some good upper divergence, is driving the convection in the PR area today.

I see no signs of any organization as yet.

Jan