2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[tarheelprogrammer]

Anyone know what is causing the models to be so inconsistent recently? They are struggling with things they did not in the recent past.

[RL3AO]

Anyone know what is causing the models to be so inconsistent recently? They are struggling with things they did not in the recent past.

At least with the last version, you could correct for it over-producing hurricanes. The upgrade has lowered the model-cane frequency, but whenever there is high RH in the tropics, the GFS is overproducing convection and therefore vorticity which is leading to erroneous development and movement. The GFS may do fine once we have a tropical storm, but it's genesis forecasts are total garbage this year.

[Alyono]

GFS just flipped from hyperactivity to nothing at all for the next 16 days

[Alyono]

EC and CMC now like the NEXT system moving off of Africa

Always shifting to the next system is a sign that things may be quiet in the tropical Atlantic

[Stormcenter]

The model runs obsession continues.....it's going to drive some of you insane. Me personally, I'll just sit back and watch the season play itself out. I think the models are great for some things and clueless for others. IMO

[tolakram]

The model runs obsession continues.....it's going to drive some of you insane. Me personally, I'll just sit back and watch the season play itself out. I think the models are great for some things and clueless for others. IMO

Yes, the model obsession continues in the models thread, which is an optional view.

Euro developing the next wave. No really, that first one, no good, this one for sure!


Regardless, remember the clues and trends are what to look for. Gert dissipated as well, until it didn't.

[Hammy]

For what it's worth, the Euro had a 983mb hurricane 144 hours ago with Gert, and only a weak low (possibly not even a depression) 72 hours ago, so it's possible to get some read
on what the models are doing, at least here, having a high bias in the long term and low bias in the shorter term.

EC and CMC now like the NEXT system moving off of Africa

Always shifting to the next system is a sign that things may be quiet in the tropical Atlantic

This could indicate a west-based season correct?

[Alyono]

For what it's worth, the Euro had a 983mb hurricane 144 hours ago with Gert, and only a weak low (possibly not even a depression) 72 hours ago, so it's possible to get some read
on what the models are doing, at least here, having a high bias in the long term and low bias in the shorter term.

EC and CMC now like the NEXT system moving off of Africa

Always shifting to the next system is a sign that things may be quiet in the tropical Atlantic

This could indicate a west-based season correct?

possibly west based. Tropical Atlantic appears quite hostile again this year

[ronjon]

But west-based might also mean more CONUS strikes rather than recurving.

[RL3AO]

And we'll probably have our 2nd hurricane of the month by mid-week.

You're thinking 99L reaches hurricane intensity?

I'm just gonna stop predicting things and walk away while I'm ahead.

[emeraldislenc]

Might be a good idea!

[Hurricaneman]

Most models develop the wave behind 91L too so it looks like the activity is ramping up

[Hammy]

And we'll probably have our 2nd hurricane of the month by mid-week.

You're thinking 99L reaches hurricane intensity?

I'm just gonna stop predicting things and walk away while I'm ahead.

You got this one right--it's already exceeded my forecast peak of 50kt...

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS now also spins up the next wave coming off of Africa in a few days in the Tropical Atlantic.

[Hurricaneman]

18z GFS now also spins up the next wave coming off of Africa in a few days in the Tropical Atlantic.

Like you say basically here I'll believe it when I see it

[Hurricaneman]

We pretty much have the models on board for the wave behind 91L but the models have been atrocious until there is a defined center

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS now also spins up the next wave coming off of Africa in a few days in the Tropical Atlantic.

Like you say basically here I'll believe it when I see it

Yep! The GFS has been giving false alarms all over the place all season so far.

[Bocadude85]

18z GFS now also spins up the next wave coming off of Africa in a few days in the Tropical Atlantic.

Like you say basically here I'll believe it when I see it

Yep! The GFS has been giving false alarms all over the place all season so far.

Atleast the models are showing activity increasing as we approach the peak of the season.

[cycloneye]

There is a thread for wave in west Africa that models develop so post there the model runs.

Thread for Wave in West Africa is up

[Hammy]

Model frustration continues with the Euro and GFS swapping places by the looks of it--latest GFS run shows development and the Euro showing nothing but weak waves out through 96h. What happened to the aligned consistency we saw yesterday?