TD 10...Back Again

[NorthGaWeather]

There appears to be a thunderstorm NNW of Puerto Rico.

And even more due North of PR.

[WindRunner]

I know there isn't going to be any regen any time soon, but look at the plots sending it into the GOM! Even the smallest bit of rotating energy left (if any) would develop on this track with 89F water in the straights.

[Sanibel]

It's not another wave. It is the sheared remnant deep convection of TD10 following along right behind it.

People criticize us for following such a weak feature, but an interesting thing is happening. The weak surface feature has vanished, so it is now possible that the remnant convection will find favorability and form a new surface center...

[x-y-no]

It's not another wave. It is the sheared remnant deep convection of TD10 following along right behind it.

People criticize us for following such a weak feature, but an interesting thing is happening. The weak surface feature has vanished, so it is now possible that the remnant convection will find favorability and form a new surface center...

TAFB depicts another wave there, and they've been showing that wave slowly creeping up on TD10R's wave for days now:

[Derek Ortt]

SST is meaningless if the other parameters are not favorable. Plus, while SST is always warm in the GOM, the heat content is some of the lowest in the basin

[WeatherEmperor]

SST is meaningless if the other parameters are not favorable. Plus, while SST is always warm in the GOM, the heat content is some of the lowest in the basin

thanks for putting that to good use Derek. Hopefully that will end some of this regarding TD10 coming back.

<RICKY>

[LSU2001]

Derek I understand that heat content of GOM is lowest in the Atlantic basin but there have been some very, very significant tropical cyclones that have developed in the GOM. You seem to always downplay the GOM potential and I really do not understand your thinking. Could you explain why you seem to dismiss the GOM??
I am not questioning your professional judgement I am only asking so that I may learn something
TIm

[WindRunner]

From what I understand, he is refering to the 26C isotherm depth and heat-potential maps that always show the gulf as baking on the surface and cooling off rather quickly as the depth increases.

[SouthFloridawx]

[WindRunner]

WHOA! Where did that hi-qual image come from?

[SouthFloridawx]

WHOA! Where did that hi-qual image come from?

here

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[elysium]

Has two areas of interest. The primary area to the north, and weaker secondary area just off the NE coast of Puerto Rico.

[NorthGaWeather]

SST is meaningless if the other parameters are not favorable. Plus, while SST is always warm in the GOM, the heat content is some of the lowest in the basin

Really, well it looks like from the maps I've seen that the Central/Southeastern Gulf has some good heat content.

[elysium]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should NOT be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may NOT be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The area off the NE coast of Puerto Rico appears to have closed, and looks like the primary center. We should be getting the upgrade very soon. Initial indications are that it is moving slightly north of due west at around 10 to 15 mph.

[Derek Ortt]

most of the rapid intensification in the GOM is usually associated with a trough interaction; thus, is not pure tropical intensification. This was even the case with Charley. PV advection enabled the last minute rapid intensification

We must remember, that the vast majority of major hurricanes in the GOM entered the GOM as a classified TC. Even Opal entered as a tropical storm

[jkt21787]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should NOT be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may NOT be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The area off the NE coast of Puerto Rico appears to have closed, and looks like the primary center. We should be getting the upgrade very soon. Initial indications are that it is moving slightly north of due west at around 10 to 15 mph.

NHC disagrees strongly...5:30 TWO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN AND A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[Frank P]

most of the rapid intensification in the GOM is usually associated with a trough interaction; thus, is not pure tropical intensification. This was even the case with Charley. PV advection enabled the last minute rapid intensification

We must remember, that the vast majority of major hurricanes in the GOM entered the GOM as a classified TC. Even Opal entered as a tropical storm

I'm not sure this is totally accurate Derek... from my recollection I think Hurricane Opal originated from an area of disturbed weather to the east of Cozumel, Mexico in late September. Passing over the Yucatan Peninsula, Opal didn't reached tropical storm strength until September 30 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico....

[WeatherEmperor]

most of the rapid intensification in the GOM is usually associated with a trough interaction; thus, is not pure tropical intensification. This was even the case with Charley. PV advection enabled the last minute rapid intensification

We must remember, that the vast majority of major hurricanes in the GOM entered the GOM as a classified TC. Even Opal entered as a tropical storm

I'm not sure this is totally accurate Derek... from my recollection I think Hurricane Opal originated from an area of disturbed weather to the east of Cozumel, Mexico in late September. Passing over the Yucatan Peninsula, Opal didn't reached tropical storm strength until September 30 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico....

That is correct. Take a look at this graphic.

<RICKY>

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Ivanhater]

Hurricane Opal originated from an area of disturbed weather to the east of Cozumel, Mexico in late September. Passing over the Yucatan Peninsula, Opal reached tropical storm strength on September 30 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Opal reached hurricane intensity on October 2nd, and begin a slow northward motion in response to an upper level trough moving the through the central United States. A hurricane watch was issued on October 3 from Morgan City, Louisiana to Pensacola, Florida.

[jkt21787]

most of the rapid intensification in the GOM is usually associated with a trough interaction; thus, is not pure tropical intensification. This was even the case with Charley. PV advection enabled the last minute rapid intensification

We must remember, that the vast majority of major hurricanes in the GOM entered the GOM as a classified TC. Even Opal entered as a tropical storm

I'm not sure this is totally accurate Derek... from my recollection I think Hurricane Opal originated from an area of disturbed weather to the east of Cozumel, Mexico in late September. Passing over the Yucatan Peninsula, Opal didn't reached tropical storm strength until September 30 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico....

That is correct. Take a look at this graphic.

<RICKY>

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Looks like the Gulf to me.

Sorry, Derek.