Rita Recon Reports

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cycloneye
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#1301 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:15 am

URNT40 KWBC 221500
NOAA3 1818A RITA
145030 2514 08842 10040 -2047 315056 +173 +171 320057 999 999
145100 2515 08844 10033 -2033 333057 +171 +171 333058 999 999
145130 2517 08844 10023 -2077 350054 +174 +168 347058 044 003
145200 2519 08843 10008 -2142 003042 +190 +157 358047 035 003
145230 2520 08842 10027 -2166 029036 +213 +143 039038 026 003
145300 2522 08841 10023 -2143 052043 +223 +135 056047 042 003
145330 2523 08841 10038 -2112 064054 +211 +140 068056 050 003
145400 2524 08839 10028 -2116 077053 +207 +138 072056 999 999
145430 2523 08838 10029 -2139 098039 +214 +136 093041 999 999
145500 2521 08838 10022 -2181 103030 +210 +136 106034 999 999
145530 2520 08839 10015 -2218 071017 +213 +134 089022 016 004
145600 2518 08841 10028 -2204 353024 +207 +139 339030 011 004
145630 2517 08842 10038 -2142 331039 +202 +147 326045 029 003
145700 2515 08844 10025 -2030 321063 +191 +149 321073 051 004
145730 2513 08846 10004 -1841 317090 +171 +158 317092 086 008
145800 2512 08847 9971 -1613 321109 +149 +149 323115 100 030
145830 2511 08849 9952 -1373 323111 +138 +138 324113 086 035
145900 2509 08850 9996 -1180 319105 +137 +131 320110 079 016
145930 2508 08852 9953 -1035 317096 +140 +128 317097 075 010
150000 2507 08853 9988 -0921 315093 +139 +132 315096 073 013
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#1302 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:17 am

tracyswfla wrote::slime:


:slime:
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#1303 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:21 am

***anxious***

Any guesses on pressure???

I'm thinking 910-915...
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#1304 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:22 am

301
URNT12 KNHC 221500Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1449Z
B. 25 DEG 18 MIN N
88 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2326 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 121 DEG 135 KT
G. 35 DEG 13 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 18 C/ 3058 M
J. 22 C/ 3050 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C017-55
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 135 KT NE QUAD 1446Z


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#1305 Postby feederband » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:23 am

Brent wrote:***anxious***

Any guesses on pressure???

I'm thinking 910-915...


I need to put gloves on...I've shewed my nails off and I'm working on the fingers..
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#1306 Postby LanceW » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:25 am

Did I read this right, the eye is open SE? This seems to be good..

Brent wrote:URNT12 KNHC 221500Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1449Z
B. 25 DEG 18 MIN N
88 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2326 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 121 DEG 135 KT
G. 35 DEG 13 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 18 C/ 3058 M
J. 22 C/ 3050 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C017-55
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 135 KT NE QUAD 1446Z
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#1307 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:26 am

LanceW wrote:Did I read this right, the eye is open SE? This seems to be good..


ERC??
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#1308 Postby Raebie » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:27 am

EWRC?
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#1309 Postby Raebie » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:29 am

The last IR sure shows alot of red wrapping around the eye...how else could it just open up?

Raebie, ignorant
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#1310 Postby x-y-no » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:29 am

Brent wrote:
LanceW wrote:Did I read this right, the eye is open SE? This seems to be good..


ERC??


Yes. No question.

I wasn't sure first thing this morning, but it's unmistakable now - clouds filling the eye, ragged old eyewall - new eywall showing clearly on IR.
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#1311 Postby Raebie » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:31 am

Damn. That can't be good.
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#1312 Postby PurdueWx80 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:37 am

Concentric eyewalls - one w/ a diameter of 17 miles, the new with a diameter of 55. This is really starting to worry me because barring any shear (which I don't see, sorry Avila) or slow movement over those shelf waters, this ERC will be complete within 24 hours, giving Rita enough time to strengthen again. I'm guessing pressure will go back up to near 940 before coming down into the 920s or 930s prior to landfall.
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#1313 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:42 am

URNT40 KWBC 221520
NOAA3 1818A RITA
151030 2437 08925 10040 -0087 319063 +116 +113 319064 038 006
151100 2436 08927 10038 -0073 319059 +115 +114 320060 040 005
151130 2435 08928 10030 -0055 318060 +116 +109 319060 041 005
151200 2433 08930 10035 -0042 321058 +117 +104 320059 040 004
151230 2432 08932 10035 -0025 321055 +116 +103 321055 041 003
151300 2430 08933 10045 -0011 321054 +115 +101 321055 039 004
151330 2429 08935 10043 +0000 324055 +118 +105 325056 040 005
151400 2428 08937 10044 +0015 324054 +119 +101 325056 039 004
151430 2426 08938 10047 +0027 321054 +119 +090 322055 040 004
151500 2425 08940 10044 +0042 322053 +122 +083 321054 039 004
151530 2423 08941 10041 +0055 324052 +122 +081 323052 038 004
151600 2421 08943 10045 +0063 323049 +120 +082 324050 036 004
151630 2420 08945 10051 +0082 320048 +113 +091 318049 035 004
151700 2418 08946 10044 +0095 317045 +112 +095 317046 034 003
151730 2417 08948 10043 +0101 312042 +115 +095 308043 033 003
151800 2415 08950 10051 +0109 311044 +118 +091 310044 033 003
151830 2414 08951 10045 +0117 312042 +117 +093 312043 032 003
151900 2412 08953 10041 +0123 314041 +114 +097 314042 031 002
151930 2411 08955 10043 +0129 310041 +111 +097 310042 031 001
152000 2409 08956 10042 +0136 310044 +115 +093 311046 029 002

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#1314 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:43 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:Concentric eyewalls - one w/ a diameter of 17 miles, the new with a diameter of 55. This is really starting to worry me because barring any shear (which I don't see, sorry Avila) or slow movement over those shelf waters, this ERC will be complete within 24 hours, giving Rita enough time to strengthen again. I'm guessing pressure will go back up to near 940 before coming down into the 920s or 930s prior to landfall.


:eek:
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#1315 Postby djtil » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:06 am

"sorry avila"

avila is being much more agressive than any guidance.....dont blame him. intensity models see shear, cooler water bringing her down to mid cat 3 before landfall.
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#1316 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:09 am

djtil wrote:"sorry avila"

avila is being much more agressive than any guidance.....dont blame him. intensity models see shear, cooler water bringing her down to mid cat 3 before landfall.


The same guidance that said Rita would NEVER EVER EVER be a Cat 5... much less a sub-900 mb one.

Up til a couple of days ago it was saying nothing more than a Marginal 3 AT PEAK INTENSITY.
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#1317 Postby PurdueWx80 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:11 am

djtil wrote:"sorry avila"

avila is being much more agressive than any guidance.....dont blame him. intensity models see shear, cooler water bringing her down to mid cat 3 before landfall.


Umm, OK. I wasn't blaming anyone - just saying I didn't agree with him. Relax.

Dry air is another big factor that may actually be the most likely to weaken Rita closer to landfall.
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#1318 Postby djtil » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:12 am

The same guidance that said Rita would NEVER EVER EVER be a Cat 5... much less a sub-900 mb one.



from my observations intensity models are much better at detecting intensity trends rather than absolute strength. if the SHIPS trends a storm up...it usually goes up, how much is always a question. but for the SHIPS to take it down 50mph + there is obviously a hint as to the conditions ahead.
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#1319 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:18 am

URNT40 KWBC 221540
NOAA3 1818A RITA
153030 2404 08914 10040 +0069 278050 +112 +105 271053 037 004
153100 2404 08911 10042 +0062 271052 +113 +093 270053 037 005
153130 2405 08908 10043 +0060 273050 +114 +093 274051 041 005
153200 2405 08906 10042 +0058 273051 +116 +101 273051 042 004
153230 2405 08903 10043 +0054 270051 +116 +107 269052 040 003
153300 2405 08900 10043 +0050 267052 +114 +104 267052 039 003
153330 2405 08857 10044 +0043 264049 +117 +097 264050 040 003
153400 2405 08855 10043 +0041 265048 +122 +098 266048 042 003
153430 2406 08852 10046 +0033 261055 +119 +092 260056 040 003
153500 2406 08849 10042 +0030 258057 +115 +082 259057 041 003
153530 2406 08846 10045 +0028 256056 +118 +082 255057 043 003
153600 2406 08843 10049 +0025 254056 +116 +077 255056 041 003
153630 2407 08840 10045 +0025 250056 +112 +084 248056 041 003
153700 2407 08838 10038 +0026 252056 +118 +083 250056 041 003
153730 2407 08835 10044 +0025 251057 +117 +084 251058 041 002
153800 2407 08832 10045 +0028 250058 +120 +079 250058 040 003
153830 2407 08829 10041 +0033 248058 +122 +076 249058 039 002
153900 2407 08826 10040 +0037 247059 +120 +079 248059 040 002
153930 2407 08823 10043 +0042 243062 +117 +077 243062 039 005
154000 2407 08820 10043 +0042 244062 +116 +081 244063 039 004
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#1320 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:22 am

URNT40 KWBC 221600
NOAA2 WX18A RITA
153200 2750 08232 -20 +0026 128005 +265 +230 125008 999 999
153300 2752 08231 232 -0003 121011 +262 +225 121014 999 999
153400 2753 08228 1062 +0090 131020 +248 +207 138024 015 005
153500 2754 08224 2255 +0160 143024 +227 +172 144024 032 008
153600 2753 08221 3577 +0222 139024 +199 +150 141025 999 999
153700 2751 08219 4710 +0265 132023 +181 +106 131025 999 999
153800 2748 08221 5708 +0313 129025 +166 +101 127026 999 999
153900 2745 08223 6736 +0368 128026 +150 +087 129026 999 999
154000 2743 08227 7695 +0456 120025 +135 +053 123026 999 999
154100 2742 08231 8592 +0517 117027 +111 +044 117029 020 003
154200 2741 08236 9423 +0571 117028 +092 +043 114030 018 004
154300 2740 08240 10433 +0610 131025 +075 +043 135026 032 004
154400 2739 08244 11233 +0637 140028 +063 +033 141029 028 003
154500 2738 08249 11944 +0702 141028 +048 +025 142029 023 003
154600 2737 08253 12543 +0736 145031 +036 +018 147033 024 002
154700 2736 08258 13068 +0773 148034 +022 +010 150035 026 002
154800 2735 08302 13500 +0791 151033 +013 +006 154034 027 004
154900 2733 08306 13879 +0810 147031 +008 +002 152033 029 004
155000 2731 08309 14242 +0824 149031 +004 -009 153033 030 004
155100 2728 08313 14480 +0830 165033 +002 -013 165034 027 002
155200 2726 08316 14512 +0826 165032 +001 -013 169035 028 002
155300 2723 08320 14549 +0819 168032 -001 -015 170034 027 001
155400 2720 08323 14552 +0814 165032 +000 -015 167033 027 001
155500 2718 08327 14551 +0813 162032 -003 -013 161033 026 003
155600 2715 08331 14550 +0809 160032 -001 -015 158033 026 001
155700 2712 08334 14551 +0808 161038 +001 -015 161040 026 001
155800 2709 08338 14552 +0803 164039 -003 -015 160041 027 001
155900 2707 08342 14549 +0801 171036 -003 -023 171037 028 001
160000 2704 08345 14547 +0797 171037 -002 -025 174037 030 001
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