2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1279432852195721221

[aspen]

There's not a whole lot to see there, in my opinion. There's technically a downsloping correlation there, but given the range of outcomes, it appears to be a rather unproductive predictor:

10 KB. Source: Made using Excel
https://i.imgur.com/fawCgAD.png

10 KB. Source: Made using Excel
https://i.imgur.com/pnmjOpW.png

If we get Edouard and then Fay—if not additional storms—in the subtropics before the end of the month but see nothing in the MDR, will people reconsider the prospects of a hyperactive 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?

No

Yeah, definitely no. I already did an analysis of July systems since 1980 a few weeks ago, and even if we get another system in the subtropics, that’ll still put 2020 among the seasons with at least 2 July TCs. The mean seasonal numbers for those years are 15.1/7.6/3.4 and 137.52 ACE, while years with a single July TC average out at 13.3/6.8/3.0 and 112.57 ACE. Therefore, even having Fay in the subtropics and no MDR July system would still point towards an above-average season.

There is a stronger correlation between seasonal activity and years that produced AEW-based July systems or those from other methods (decaying fronts, etc). The average of seasons with July TCs formed from AEWs is 16.1/8.7/3.9 and 158.66 ACE; other methods average at 13.4/6.6/2.9 and 115.40 ACE. That said, there is still plenty of time for an AEW to spawn a system this month. It doesn’t have to be a typical deep tropic MDR system; Alex ‘04 is a good example.

[CyclonicFury]

I'm expecting to soon hear comments such as "the storms so far this season have been weak, maybe the season will be full of weak storms like 2013."

The truth is, it's July 4, and approximately 95% of all Atlantic major hurricanes form on August 1 or later. 2004 and 2017 produced 220 ACE after August 1. Hyperactive seasons do not always have hyperactive Julys.

[psyclone]

June, July and November tend to be write off months for the Atlantic basin. ACE is like calisthenics for the season... it is a "tell" on composition. So far we're flabby with short lived junk storms. which is perfectly normal. Quality production commences in August. It is the early season heating that yields the magic for peak season. We're doing a fine job constructing that foundation..

[Shell Mound]

If we get Edouard and then Fay—if not additional storms—in the subtropics before the end of the month but see nothing in the MDR, will people reconsider the prospects of a hyperactive 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?

No

Yeah, definitely no. I already did an analysis of July systems since 1980 a few weeks ago, and even if we get another system in the subtropics, that’ll still put 2020 among the seasons with at least 2 July TCs. The mean seasonal numbers for those years are 15.1/7.6/3.4 and 137.52 ACE, while years with a single July TC average out at 13.3/6.8/3.0 and 112.57 ACE. Therefore, even having Fay in the subtropics and no MDR July system would still point towards an above-average season.

There is a stronger correlation between seasonal activity and years that produced AEW-based July systems or those from other methods (decaying fronts, etc). The average of seasons with July TCs formed from AEWs is 16.1/8.7/3.9 and 158.66 ACE; other methods average at 13.4/6.6/2.9 and 115.40 ACE. That said, there is still plenty of time for an AEW to spawn a system this month. It doesn’t have to be a typical deep tropic MDR system; Alex ‘04 is a good example.

I was referring to hyperactive seasons rather than merely above-average ones. Above-average seasons feature ACE > 111 and at meet at least two of the following three criteria: NS ≥ 13, H ≥ 7, and/or MH ≥ 3. Hyperactive seasons both fulfil the “above-average” criteria and feature an ACE ≥ 153. Your data indicate that hyperactive seasons tend to feature at least one system—and preferably two—that forms from an AEW in the month of July, preferably in the MDR. So to be sure that 2020 will be hyperactive, in addition to the next few formations in the subtropics, we need at least one or two MDR formations before July ends.

[CyclonicFury]

No

Yeah, definitely no. I already did an analysis of July systems since 1980 a few weeks ago, and even if we get another system in the subtropics, that’ll still put 2020 among the seasons with at least 2 July TCs. The mean seasonal numbers for those years are 15.1/7.6/3.4 and 137.52 ACE, while years with a single July TC average out at 13.3/6.8/3.0 and 112.57 ACE. Therefore, even having Fay in the subtropics and no MDR July system would still point towards an above-average season.

There is a stronger correlation between seasonal activity and years that produced AEW-based July systems or those from other methods (decaying fronts, etc). The average of seasons with July TCs formed from AEWs is 16.1/8.7/3.9 and 158.66 ACE; other methods average at 13.4/6.6/2.9 and 115.40 ACE. That said, there is still plenty of time for an AEW to spawn a system this month. It doesn’t have to be a typical deep tropic MDR system; Alex ‘04 is a good example.

I was referring to hyperactive seasons rather than merely above-average ones. Above-average seasons feature ACE > 111 and at meet at least two of the following three criteria: NS ≥ 13, H ≥ 7, and/or MH ≥ 3. Hyperactive seasons both fulfil the “above-average” criteria and feature an ACE ≥ 153. Your data indicate that hyperactive seasons tend to feature at least one system—and preferably two—that forms from an AEW in the month of July, preferably in the MDR. So to be sure that 2020 will be hyperactive, in addition to the next few formations in the subtropics, we need at least one or two MDR formations before July ends.

2004 would like a word

[aspen]

Yeah, definitely no. I already did an analysis of July systems since 1980 a few weeks ago, and even if we get another system in the subtropics, that’ll still put 2020 among the seasons with at least 2 July TCs. The mean seasonal numbers for those years are 15.1/7.6/3.4 and 137.52 ACE, while years with a single July TC average out at 13.3/6.8/3.0 and 112.57 ACE. Therefore, even having Fay in the subtropics and no MDR July system would still point towards an above-average season.

There is a stronger correlation between seasonal activity and years that produced AEW-based July systems or those from other methods (decaying fronts, etc). The average of seasons with July TCs formed from AEWs is 16.1/8.7/3.9 and 158.66 ACE; other methods average at 13.4/6.6/2.9 and 115.40 ACE. That said, there is still plenty of time for an AEW to spawn a system this month. It doesn’t have to be a typical deep tropic MDR system; Alex ‘04 is a good example.

I was referring to hyperactive seasons rather than merely above-average ones. Above-average seasons feature ACE > 111 and at meet at least two of the following three criteria: NS ≥ 13, H ≥ 7, and/or MH ≥ 3. Hyperactive seasons both fulfil the “above-average” criteria and feature an ACE ≥ 153. Your data indicate that hyperactive seasons tend to feature at least one system—and preferably two—that forms from an AEW in the month of July, preferably in the MDR. So to be sure that 2020 will be hyperactive, in addition to the next few formations in the subtropics, we need at least one or two MDR formations before July ends.

2004 would like a word

And 2013, on the other end of the spectrum. It had two MDR systems, but the whole season only ended up producing 36 ACE and zero hurricanes greater than 80 kt.

[Siker]

Just want to bring up that 2017 set a record for lowest ACE in its first 5 storms and then had 10 hurricanes in a row, lest anyone go down the line of thought that weak early storms >> weak main season storms (which has come up in previous years).

[Ivanhater]

Amazing if we get the earliest 5th named storm.

So much for a quiet July...

[TheStormExpert]

Just want to bring up that 2017 set a record for lowest ACE in its first 5 storms and then had 10 hurricanes in a row, lest anyone go down the line of thought that weak early storms >> weak main season storms (which has come up in previous years).

Wouldn’t surprise me to see the same or something similar happen this year.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1279492102250889217

[TheStormExpert]

I've been noticing the NAO has been trending gradually more negative as time progresses, along with the AO. Then you have a positive PNA. Wonder if this will stick around until peak season?

[gatorcane]

Looks like this season probably won’t be a 2005 or 1933 as some were thinking, models continue to show nada for the foreseeable future. Yes we have some named storms approaching record levels but they are really “junk” weak mostly subtropical-based storms. These same storms probably formed in 1933 and years long ago but were never designated pre-satellite era. I still expect an above normal season, mostly because the SST configuration supports but just because it is above normal doesn’t mean South Florida will be in the cross hairs. My gut is still telling me South Florida avoids a significant hurricane again and really a hurricane hit all together. I can see a a brush from a weaker hurricane or sloppy TS, something emanating from the Caribbean in October but probably nothing here this year. I see some hurricanes that mostly recurve out in the open Atlantic and a perhaps a a couple hurricanes that track through the Caribbean and into the Gulf but most out the open Atlantic. Gulf and Caribbean could spawn some home brew as well. I think it may be on the quiet side for Bahamas and Florida.

[toad strangler]

Looks like this season probably won’t be a 2005 or 1933 as some were thinking, models continue to show nada for the foreseeable future. Yes we have some named storms approaching record levels but they are really “junk” weak mostly subtropical-based storms. These same storms probably formed in 1933 and years long ago but were never designated pre-satellite era. I still expect an above normal season, mostly because the SST configuration supports but just because it is above normal doesn’t mean South Florida will be in the cross hairs. My gut is still telling me South Florida avoids a significant hurricane again. I can see a a brush from a weaker hurricane or sloppy TS, something emanating from the Caribbean in October but probably nothing here this year. I see some hurricanes that mostly recurve out in the open Atlantic and a perhaps a a couple hurricanes that track through the Caribbean and into the Gulf but most out the open Atlantic. Gulf and Caribbean could spawn some home brew as well.

Since you are talking about GUT feelings .... yours are pretty much climo driven. A safe place to put your wager ....

1. Looks like this season probably won't be a 2005 or 1933 as some were thinking - That's a pretty good bet since 1933 and 2005 were a long time ago and NO TROPICAL SEASON are alike
2. Models continue to show nada for the foreseeable future - It's early July and they really shouldn't be showing much right now.
3. Yes we have some named storms approaching record levels but they are really "junk" weak mostly sub tropical-based storms - This is not breaking news to anybody
4. These same storms probably formed in 1933 and years long ago but were never designated pre-satellite era - THis is not breaking news to anybody
5. I still expect an above normal season, mostly because the SST configuration supports but just because it is above normal doesn't mean South Florida will be in the cross hairs - This is as safe a bet as one can make being that S FL is such a small area within the huge Atlantic Basin.You will come out on top 93% of the time at least saying this
6. My gut is still telling me South Florida avoids a significant hurricane again. - See # 5
7. I see some hurricanes that mostly recurve out in the open Atlantic and perhaps a couple hurricanes that track through the Caribbean and into the Gulf but most out into the open Atlantic - This would all be standard Atlantic basin climatology
8. Gulf and Caribbean could spawn some home brew as well. - More safe basin climatology.

All safe bets gator

[gatorcane]

Toad Strangler I was concerned for Florida 2016 and 2017 especially and also 2015 for something coming in from the east looking at the early season indicators (though 2015 was an El Niño so I knew that would help). Not so much 2018 or 2019. Check out my early indicator posts those years. Honestly Dorian last year really surprised me but In the end it recurved before Florida. It’s not so much that I follow climo, I look at early indicators such as Bermuda High influence on Florida and early season steering. That combined with SST anomalies and configuration of those anomalies as well as vigor of African waves pre-season. Those three years (2015-2017) featured deep easterly steering while this year so far is anything but that. Feels like a normalish type pattern but with a weaker Bermuda High than normal. So yes this year my gut is closer to climo.

[Ubuntwo]

:uarrow: Toad Strangler I was concerned for Florida 2016 and 2017 especially and also 2015 for something coming in from the east looking at the early season indicators (though 2015 was an El Niño so I knew that would help). Not so much 2018 or 2019. Check out my early indicator posts those years. Honestly Dorian last year really surprised me but In the end it recurved before Florida. It’s not so much that I follow climo, I look at early indicators such as Bermuda High influence on Florida and early season steering. That combined with SST anomalies and configuration of those anomalies as well as vigor of African waves pre-season. Those three years (2015-2017) featured deep easterly steering while this year so far is anything but that. Feels like a normalish type pattern but with a weaker Bermuda High than normal. So yes this year my gut is closer to climo.

I never understood all the talk of Bermuda high intensity. Generally Florida landfalls from the east are permitted only by climatologically abnormal, short-term setups. Not anything that can be predicted months in advance. And even very strong Bermuda highs will be interrupted by troughs digging in and weaknesses a la Dorian. You get years with weak ridging where oddball setups allow for a Cape Verde hit on the US, and vice versa.

[stormlover2013]

Lol we have plenty of time lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm still really concerned for later in the season with the Caribbean Cruisers and those waves that show tenacity then get north of the islands and are forced west. Those are generally always the ones you worry about. Nothing good comes from that. There have been hints of High Pressure along the east coast later in the season. Dont forget that neither Katrina, Rita, nor Dorian were classic MDR systems. They held together long enough to find the better conditions then took off.

[SFLcane]

Looks like this season probably won’t be a 2005 or 1933 as some were thinking, models continue to show nada for the foreseeable future. Yes we have some named storms approaching record levels but they are really “junk” weak mostly subtropical-based storms. These same storms probably formed in 1933 and years long ago but were never designated pre-satellite era. I still expect an above normal season, mostly because the SST configuration supports but just because it is above normal doesn’t mean South Florida will be in the cross hairs. My gut is still telling me South Florida avoids a significant hurricane again and really a hurricane hit all together. I can see a a brush from a weaker hurricane or sloppy TS, something emanating from the Caribbean in October but probably nothing here this year. I see some hurricanes that mostly recurve out in the open Atlantic and a perhaps a a couple hurricanes that track through the Caribbean and into the Gulf but most out the open Atlantic. Gulf and Caribbean could spawn some home brew as well. I think it may be on the quiet side for Bahamas and Florida.

Hi Gatorcane, I can’t say I agree with your assessment of the season. For starters 95% of all Atlantic major hurricanes form in August. The busy seasons 2004 and 2017 produced a whopping 220 ACE after August 1. Plenty of season to go.

Edit: We have little idea what the ridge will be like in 2 months mid Aug which is when the REAL season gets going.

[BYG Jacob]

Has anybody actually bothered to look at the storms that have formed so far this year and how they organized, or are they just assuming they looked like garbage?