2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/woodberrywx/status/1540673049027944448

[SFLcane]

[weeniepatrol]

Ladies and gentlemen.. fasten your seatbelts.

[NDG]

Indeed we need to fasten our seatbelts, this not your typical UL set up in late June across the Caribbean.

[NDG]

So far this season wind shear across the Caribbean is lower than this same time last year. In 2020 there was a TUTT creating shear east of the Lesser Antilles.
Definitely a season that the Caribbean needs to prepare for if conditions persist.

[AnnularCane]

Apparently Mother Nature tore a few too many pages off her calendar and thinks it's September.

[SFLcane]

Wave behind 94L has become convectively active and looking quite interesting.

[crownweather]

Wave behind 94L has become convectively active and looking quite interesting.

https://i.postimg.cc/4yYxDzPT/6-FD25667-5-D7-E-4-EB6-9-A0-D-845-C521627-AA.gif

Wouldn't that be something to have three Invests in late June. (Invest 94-L, wave right behind 94L and the Gulf of Mexico system).

[SFLcane]

So far this season wind shear across the Caribbean is lower than this same time last year. In 2020 there was a TUTT creating shear east of the Lesser Antilles.
Definitely a season that the Caribbean needs to prepare for if conditions persist.

https://i.imgur.com/00c3XDZ.gif
https://i.imgur.com/W5fA0iX.gif
https://i.imgur.com/Tm2gP70.gif

Curious what it looks like in a month.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think the middle of July will be slow since the MJO wont be favorable. The ICON model was trying to develop the second wave

[crownweather]

So far this season wind shear across the Caribbean is lower than this same time last year. In 2020 there was a TUTT creating shear east of the Lesser Antilles.
Definitely a season that the Caribbean needs to prepare for if conditions persist.

https://i.imgur.com/00c3XDZ.gif
https://i.imgur.com/W5fA0iX.gif
https://i.imgur.com/Tm2gP70.gif

Curious what it looks like in a month.

As I wrote in my Crown Weather tropical discussion earlier today -

It should be noted and emphasized that an active deep tropical central and eastern Atlantic (the area between Africa and the Lesser Antilles) like we are seeing now this early in the season is ALWAYS a precursor to an extremely active August, September and October.

[NotSparta]

So far this season wind shear across the Caribbean is lower than this same time last year. In 2020 there was a TUTT creating shear east of the Lesser Antilles.
Definitely a season that the Caribbean needs to prepare for if conditions persist.

https://i.imgur.com/00c3XDZ.gif
https://i.imgur.com/W5fA0iX.gif
https://i.imgur.com/Tm2gP70.gif

Curious what it looks like in a month.

As I wrote in my Crown Weather tropical discussion earlier today -

It should be noted and emphasized that an active deep tropical central and eastern Atlantic (the area between Africa and the Lesser Antilles) like we are seeing now this early in the season is ALWAYS a precursor to an extremely active August, September and October.

Not in 2013

[Category5Kaiju]

What a contrast from 2016-2021. This, if I am seeing this correctly, is the first time in a while where the Atlantic subtropics were modestly cooler than normal and the deep tropics modestly warmer than normal. Even 2017 and 2020 at this point in time did not feature such a widespread, cool subtropics, which honestly amazes me. In the past several seasons, I specifically recall how people were speculating about how the warm subtropics could rob instability from the MDR and how the warm subtropics could have been a culprit in the relative stability seen in the MDR during peak season, but this year, that does not seem like an issue one bit.

At this point, I am genuinely wondering if we're in for not only a rough and active season but also a season that features a ferocious level of hurricane activity specifically concentrated in the deep tropics. In other words, no Florences or Dorians as worst-case scenarios but rather Ivans and Allens.

[Nimbus]

Wave behind 94L has become convectively active and looking quite interesting.

https://i.postimg.cc/4yYxDzPT/6-FD25667-5-D7-E-4-EB6-9-A0-D-845-C521627-AA.gif

Wouldn't that be something to have three Invests in late June. (Invest 94-L, wave right behind 94L and the Gulf of Mexico system).

By gulf of Mexico system do you mean the tail end of the cold front dipping south off Texas is expected to spawn something? Was this in a Two? I missed it.

[Hammy]

Curious what it looks like in a month.

As I wrote in my Crown Weather tropical discussion earlier today -

It should be noted and emphasized that an active deep tropical central and eastern Atlantic (the area between Africa and the Lesser Antilles) like we are seeing now this early in the season is ALWAYS a precursor to an extremely active August, September and October.

Not in 2013

I don't recall these sort of waves in 2013, in fact there was a lot of talk about how much drier than normal the MDR was most of early summer.

[WiscoWx02]

https://i.imgur.com/GyAxP97.png

What a contrast from 2016-2021. This, if I am seeing this correctly, is the first time in a while where the Atlantic subtropics were modestly cooler than normal and the deep tropics modestly warmer than normal. Even 2017 and 2020 at this point in time did not feature such a widespread, cool subtropics, which honestly amazes me. In the past several seasons, I specifically recall how people were speculating about how the warm subtropics could rob instability from the MDR and how the warm subtropics could have been a culprit in the relative stability seen in the MDR during peak season, but this year, that does not seem like an issue one bit.

At this point, I am genuinely wondering if we're in for not only a rough and active season but also a season that features a ferocious level of hurricane activity specifically concentrated in the deep tropics. In other words, no Florences or Dorians as worst-case scenarios but rather Ivans and Allens.

This SSTA configuration…..big yikes Honestly kinda reminds me of the 2005 configuration at this point as much as I hate to say it. 2005 was slightly warmer but still…the cooler subtropics is unlike anything we have seen in many years. Not a good sign at all.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Curious what it looks like in a month.

As I wrote in my Crown Weather tropical discussion earlier today -

It should be noted and emphasized that an active deep tropical central and eastern Atlantic (the area between Africa and the Lesser Antilles) like we are seeing now this early in the season is ALWAYS a precursor to an extremely active August, September and October.

Not in 2013

In 2013 the first African wave that tried to develop wasn't until July 7th and wasn't a storm until the 10th...then it went poof as did almost everything in the deep tropics that year due to very dry air. That isn't the case this year.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/GyAxP97.png

What a contrast from 2016-2021. This, if I am seeing this correctly, is the first time in a while where the Atlantic subtropics were modestly cooler than normal and the deep tropics modestly warmer than normal. Even 2017 and 2020 at this point in time did not feature such a widespread, cool subtropics, which honestly amazes me. In the past several seasons, I specifically recall how people were speculating about how the warm subtropics could rob instability from the MDR and how the warm subtropics could have been a culprit in the relative stability seen in the MDR during peak season, but this year, that does not seem like an issue one bit.

At this point, I am genuinely wondering if we're in for not only a rough and active season but also a season that features a ferocious level of hurricane activity specifically concentrated in the deep tropics. In other words, no Florences or Dorians as worst-case scenarios but rather Ivans and Allens.

This SSTA configuration…..big yikes Honestly kinda reminds me of the 2005 configuration at this point as much as I hate to say it. 2005 was slightly warmer but still…the cooler subtropics is unlike anything we have seen in many years. Not a good sign at all.

Cooler subtropics focuses the upward motion in the deep tropics. Watch how through the season the MJO will try to stay in phases 1-3 after July.

[boca]

What does phase 1-3 mean for activity after July?

[ScottNAtlanta]

What does phase 1-3 mean for activity after July?

A very busy season with upward motion staying in the Atlantic basin. If what I have seen in the past is any indication, the MJO will go heavily into 4 and 5 in July then zip through 6 and make a b-line for 1 in late July/August. 2017 was like that...it was crazy then it seemed to just stop for a while in mid Oct