ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1653731565174763520

[jconsor]

Here are some of the reasons why I am skeptical of a moderate to strong Nino.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1653733547339808769

[Ntxw]

Not too much ENSO related but I've always wondered if the Maritime Continent covers the Philippines/Southeast Asia.

Often referred for the tropical forcing/MJO phases I would assume. When looking at it from that point of view P6-7 are the West Pacific phase (talking in equatorial terms and not necessarily the Typhoon basin). This usually encompasses the eastern portions of the MC (Papua New Guinea) and towards the international dateline. Of course when talking convection there is no definitive demarcation and there are some gray areas.



https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care

[Yellow Evan]

How can statistical models be showing just warm neutral to weak El Niño for winter peak given the rapid transition to +ENSO we’ve seen over the last 2-3 months?

[wxman57]

How can statistical models be showing just warm neutral to weak El Niño for winter peak given the rapid transition to +ENSO we’ve seen over the last 2-3 months?

Because it's a statistical model, not a dynamic model that takes into account current trends.

[Yellow Evan]

How can statistical models be showing just warm neutral to weak El Niño for winter peak given the rapid transition to +ENSO we’ve seen over the last 2-3 months?

Because it's a statistical model, not a dynamic model that takes into account current trends.

Persistence isn’t factored into statistical models?

[USTropics]

How can statistical models be showing just warm neutral to weak El Niño for winter peak given the rapid transition to +ENSO we’ve seen over the last 2-3 months?

Because it's a statistical model, not a dynamic model that takes into account current trends.

Persistence isn’t factored into statistical models?

That would require modeling physical mechanisms, and statistical models are instead run on a subset of past data (which is a downside to statistical models, they don't capture all possible states of the system). That is, statistical models only analyze past weather patterns, they can't capture the full phase space of the modelled system. So why do we use them? Statistical models are a way to scale down the complexity, and if we're trying to identify some type of correlation or nonlinear interactions in the observed data, statistical models help expose the underlying mechanisms.

[cycloneye]

Is up there.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1654116642589392897

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1654111135673765888

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1654127047948795904

[cycloneye]

This is me. Translation to english.
It can be said with certainty that El Niño is going to be in the Pacific by summer but how strong is still debatable between moderate and strong. We will be attentive to how it continues to evolve since this phenomenon has an influence on global climatic conditions.

 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/1654152785804271617

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1654220021357481984

[LarryWx]

Unlike the April forecast, which warmed considerably vs March, the May Euro forecast is about the same as April's when comparing the same months. It appears warmer in the animation only because of progression out another month, but each month through October is ~same. This new one still has ASO near +1.8 and SON is ~+1.90-1.95 per eyeballing.

For this and other reasons, especially the strong warm bias of the Euro, I'm keeping chances of a fall/winter peak of super as low for the time being with better chance of high end moderate or strong.

However, the CANSIPS and especially POAMA have not had anywhere near the warm bias of the Euro. Actually, POAMA looks like it has had no warm bias. Moreover, the latest POAMA is consistent with its prior forecast of +2.2 for JAS and has ~+2.5 for ASO while still rising! So, with its lack of warm bias, that's pretty ominous.

CANSIPS, which appears to have no more than a small warm bias, is slightly warmer than its prior with a trimonthly peak of ~+1.85 (NDJ) vs the prior run's NDJ of +1.73.

So, in summary after taking into account biases, whereas the Euro implies a trimonthly peak at strong as most likely (say ~+1.7) and the CANSIPS implies ~~+1.8, the POAMA implies a near alltime record of ~~+2.7! So, still tons of uncertainty and a clear conflict in the models! The Euro has not been too cool since 2004! So, if 2023 ends up again not too cool for the Euro, this POAMA would verify quite a bit too warm as the latest Euro *ignoring its strong warm bias* implies a peak likely only in the low +2s.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1654848654228725760




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1654848657756233728

[Ntxw]

Unlike the April forecast, which warmed considerably vs March, the May Euro forecast is about the same as April's when comparing the same months. It appears warmer in the animation only because of progression out another month, but each month through October is ~same. This new one still has ASO near +1.8 and SON is ~+1.90-1.95 per eyeballing.

For this and other reasons, especially the strong warm bias of the Euro, I'm keeping chances of a fall/winter peak of super as low for the time being with better chance of high end moderate or strong.

However, the CANSIPS and especially POAMA have not had anywhere near the warm bias of the Euro. Actually, POAMA looks like it has had no warm bias. Moreover, the latest POAMA is consistent with its prior forecast of +2.2 for JAS and has ~+2.5 for ASO while still rising! So, with its lack of warm bias, that's pretty ominous.

CANSIPS, which appears to have no more than a small warm bias, is slightly warmer than its prior with a trimonthly peak of ~+1.85 (NDJ) vs the prior run's NDJ of +1.73.

So, in summary after taking into account biases, whereas the Euro implies a trimonthly peak at strong as most likely (say ~+1.7) and the CANSIPS implies ~~+1.8, the POAMA implies a near alltime record of ~~+2.7! So, still tons of uncertainty and a clear conflict in the models! The Euro has not been too cool since 2004! So, if 2023 ends up again not too cool for the Euro, this POAMA would verify quite a bit too warm as the latest Euro *ignoring its strong warm bias* implies a peak likely only in the low +2s.

Thanks Larry! By May I didn't expect much change as we are exiting the Spring Barrier. Forecasts now will like narrow with the margins.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the last WWB had little to none effects on thr subsurface. TAO buoys show the subsurface lacking west of 120E.

[cycloneye]

Looks like the last WWB had little to none effects on thr subsurface. TAO buoys show the subsurface lacking west of 120E.

What is the effect of that on the whole big picture of ENSO?

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like the last WWB had little to none effects on thr subsurface. TAO buoys show the subsurface lacking west of 120E.

What is the effect of that on the whole big picture of ENSO?

I think it's the time of year when every WWB will matter in determining how strong and how quick of an El Nino we get. If Kingarabian's point is right, then that means we did not see warming where/when we should have, slightly delaying the El Nino to some degree (even if it's rather small).

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like the last WWB had little to none effects on thr subsurface. TAO buoys show the subsurface lacking west of 120E.

The current WWB over the MC will help with that. The last WWB peaked in amplitude around 135E or so so that’s where the most sub-surface warming should be. Webb also tweeted meaning that we’re nearing the point where typically WWB’s west of 120E start to become infrequent during +ENSO events (though the current MC WWB disproves this):

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1654163219471126528

[Ntxw]

Upcoming weaker trades will allow more warming of 3.4 and 4. This will officially get us into the Nino territory for the weeklies.

I still think this is a slow burn where it will gradually shift further and further east with the WWBs. We've had years like 2014 and some other fast starts that slowed, probably opposite this time.